Author Topic: Gameday Thread: Nationals vs Phillies, Game 2 (L)  (Read 23360 times)

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Offline tomterp

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Gameday Thread: Nationals vs Phillies, Game 2 (L)
« Reply #250: September 27, 2006, 09:52:46 PM »
Here's the "expected runs" per Baseball Prospectus, for the two situations:

0-outs, runners 1st and 2nd, 1.38
1-out, runners 2nd and 3rd  1.371

So even if you could wave a magic wand and have sacrifices executed perfectly, you would be diminishing your expected runs scored slightly.  And since sacrifices often fail (popups, double plays, etc.) the risk comes without any reward.