Follow the Prospects: Derek Norris, C

[BBQ]

If you're aware then why are you harping on Derek's AVG? With a return to norm in his BABIP his AVG will go way up.

Because BABIP and .AVG are related stats and both of them have had a huge drop-off since 2008. There is no way he becomes a productive MLB player with the way he has been hitting.

[Glockypoo]

Because BABIP and .AVG are related stats and both of them have had a huge drop-off since 2008. There is no way he becomes a productive MLB player with the way he has been hitting.

I honestly don't believe you understand BABIP. It's ok though, it's not a metric for everyone. You're entitled to your opinion of Norris.

[BBQ]

I honestly don't believe you understand BABIP. It's ok though, it's not a metric for everyone. You're entitled to your opinion of Norris.

Batting Average On Balls In Play. Explain it to me then. Explain how .AVG and BABIP aren't very closely related. Blow my mind. I'm sure you are very smart.

[houston-nat]

Batting Average On Balls In Play. Explain it to me then. Explain how .AVG and BABIP aren't very closely related. Blow my mind. I'm sure you are very smart.

BABIP = when you hit a ball fair, how often does it turn into a hit?
AVG = when you don't walk, how often do you get a hit?

So

BABIP
 - K
 - sac  [?]
 - pop foul outs [?]
--------------------
AVG

Therefore if Derek Norris has a really low BABIP even if he never Ks and never bunts, he can still have a crap batting average.

Obviously you understand that.
What you don't understand is that BABIP is MOSTLY LUCK
It is possible for an all-time amazing hitter (Pujols) to sustain a BABIP of .350 if he's amazing. It is possible for a really, really sucky hitter to sustain a BABIP of .220-.250 if he sucks. But in the majority of cases, a BABIP in those ranges will eventually return to average.

[Glockypoo]

Batting Average On Balls In Play. Explain it to me then. Explain how .AVG and BABIP aren't very closely related. Blow my mind. I'm sure you are very smart.

I'm really not trying to be condescending, so I apologize if I'm coming off that way. Some people just don't believe in BABIP.

Cliff's notes version of BABIP according to fangraph...

The average BABIP for hitters is around .290 to .310.  A player that deviates from this average to an extreme is likely due for regression.

As Linty pointed out, Derek's BABIP is .245. That means he is way below the norm. Assuming his BABIP moves to league average, his AVG. will also increase.

That's as simple as it can be explained.

[Glockypoo]

BABIP = when you hit a ball fair, how often does it turn into a hit?
AVG = when you don't walk, how often do you get a hit?

So

BABIP
 - K
 - sac  [?]
 - pop foul outs [?]
--------------------
AVG

Therefore if Derek Norris has a really low BABIP even if he never Ks and never bunts, he can still have a crap batting average.

Obviously you understand that.
What you don't understand is that BABIP is MOSTLY LUCK
It is possible for an all-time amazing hitter (Pujols) to sustain a BABIP of .350 if he's amazing. It is possible for a really, really sucky hitter to sustain a BABIP of .220-.250 if he sucks. But in the majority of cases, a BABIP in those ranges will eventually return to average.

This too, thanks Houston 

[BBQ]

I'm really not trying to be condescending, so I aplogize if I'm coming off that way. It's just that some people don't believe in BABIP.

Cliff's notes version of BABIP according to fangraph...

The average BABIP for hitters is around .290 to .310.  A player that deviates from this average to an extreme is likely due for regression.

As Linty pointed out, Derek's BABIP is .245. That means he is way below the norm. Assuming his BABIP moves to league average, his AVG. will also increase.

That's as simple as it can be explained.

Ok, but his BABIP is not good. Which we both established. Maybe if he was hitting well his BABIP would be good. I just said he hasn't been hitting well.

[Glockypoo]

Ok, but his BABIP is not good. Which we both established. Maybe if he was hitting well his BABIP would be good. I just said he hasn't been hitting well.

Correct.

But as Houston pointed out, the theory is that most players cannot control their BABIP.

So when Derek's BABIP evens out, so will his AVG.

[BBQ]

If he is hitting well then his BABIP will rise. So therefore he is not hitting well. If he was hitting well (into gaps, hard-hits) he would have more control, as it seems now he is hitting horribly. But his BB% have gone up every year.

[The Chief]

What they're trying to tell you is that BABIP is a "luck" stat, and that he has been unlucky.  When his luck evens out, his BA will go up.

[BBQ]

What they're trying to tell you is that BABIP is a "luck" stat, and that he has been unlucky.  When his luck evens out, his BA will go up.

Thanks, I understood what they were saying. All I was trying to say is that he hasn't been hitting as well..
Then maybe he just got lucky in 2008 when his BABIP was around .330

[Glockypoo]

Then maybe he just got lucky in 2008 when his BABIP was around .330

I think most Norris fans would agree with that, even his biggest supporters.

No one is claiming Derek will be a .315 hitter in the bigs. But .270 is absolutely doable. And that, coupled with his plus power (for a catcher) and plus, plus eye at the plate make for a very promising prospect.

[Lintyfresh85]

Plus he has a cannon arm... and pretty good speed (for a catcher)

He just needs to get better on blocking/catching the pitch (he'll drop a few every once in a while... much like what Ramos is going through)

[BBQ]

Okay good to see we cleared things up. Sorry I came off as a dick. I'm a pretty big Norris fan, I've just been disappointed that he hasn't played as well as he did in 2008. I guess now you showed me the truth. What other numbers do you take into account when looking at hitting prospects? You seem to know a lot. I'd like to know more. Enlighten me, please?

[Glockypoo]

Okay good to see we cleared things up. Sorry I came off as a dick. I'm a pretty big Norris fan, I've just been disappointed that he hasn't played as well as he did in 2008. I guess now you showed me the truth. What other numbers do you take into account when looking at hitting prospects? You seem to know a lot. I'd like to know more. Enlighten me, please?

There's no better place to start than Fangraphs.

Here's the link: http://www.fangraphs.com

Just hover over "glossary" at the top right and click on whatever metric interests you.

[Lintyfresh85]

I don't know anything more about baseball that anyone else.

But, I do look at K/BB%, K%, ISO and OPS when I look at minor league hitters.

If they're hitting really good but with a ton of strike outs and hardly any walks... that's not a good thing for their future.

On the other hand, if they are showing power, a good eye but aren't hitting for that high of an average... that usually means they're hitting into bad luck, or their swing might have a problem like a massive upper cut. Having seen Norris in person, I know his swing isn't that much of an upper cut... so I assume he's just hitting into bad luck.

[BBQ]

If they're hitting really good but with a ton of strike outs and hardly any walks... that's not a good thing for their future.

Mhm. I usually look at BB and K % a good bit. What do you think of Marrero?

[Glockypoo]

Mhm. I usually look at BB and K % a good bit. What do you think of Marrero?

One of the biggest reasons people are down on Marrero is his Isolated Power (ISO), which projects somewhere in the neighborhood of .150. Simply put, he probably won't hit enough to be a major league first baseman and his glove doesn't allow him to fit anywhere else.

[blue911]

One of the biggest reasons people are down on Marrero is his Isolated Power (ISO), which projects somewhere in the neigborhood of .150. Simply put, he probably won't hit enough to be a major league first baseman and his glove doesn't allow him to fit anywhere else.

That's because people are looking at Marrero as a physically mature person.

[BBQ]

That's because people are looking at Marrero as a physically mature person.

He is 6'3 210. I suppose he could put on maybe 10 lbs more bulk?

[blue911]

He is 6'3 210. I suppose he could put on maybe 10 lbs more bulk?

He has no chest. Raw-boned is what they used to call it. Similar to RZ in '06.


EDIT: Another thing about Marrero is his power is to right-center. The ball really jumps off his bat but he doesn't know how to pull yet.

[Tyler Durden]

Bird chested?  Is that a medical term?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He has no chest. Raw-boned is what they used to call it. Similar to RZ in '06.


EDIT: Another thing about Marrero is his power is to right-center. The ball really jumps off his bat but he doesn't know how to pull yet.

When discussing Votto's break out, Dave Cameron made this observation about guys with opposite field power:

I have a theory – and that’s really all it is at this point, as we don’t yet have good enough data to draw firm conclusions – that players whose power is primarily to the opposite field develop differently, and are viewed less favorably early in their careers, than players with obvious pull power.

Votto’s power is primarily to left field, where his career ISO is .382, is significantly higher than his ISO to either CF (.261) or RF (.294). His career wOBA on balls to the opposite field is a staggering .508. In that way, he’s comparable to Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, and Ryan Howard, all of whom drive balls out the opposite way with regularity.

Gonzalez took three organizations to develop, and like Votto, had some real struggles in the minors. Howard didn’t become a regular in the big leagues until age 25. Mauer didn’t see his power really come to fruition until age 26, even though the rest of his game was already mature. Looking back at the list of historical opposite field home run hitters from Jeremy Greenhouse, we find more late bloomers like Roberto Clemente, Julio Franco, and Jim Edmonds, among others.

Adrian Gonzalez is the classic example, and A-Gon has some comps at this age that look like Marrero.  While A-Gon was always thought of a high level prospect (even if he was a stretch at #1), Marrero might take a leap in a couple years as he adds a bit more strength.  I'm not ready to have him displace Morse, but I sense we might be underestimating his best case.  

I think there is a discussion of this point in the FTP Marrero thread (projecting Chris Marrero).

[Lintyfresh85]

Norris just beat out a grounder to SS. For a catcher he can burn.

[sportsfan882]

BA down to .201. Prospect status taking a hit. Doesn't matter what OBP or SLG is if he hits .200