Author Topic: All Hail the Bullpen!  (Read 2893 times)

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Online imref

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All Hail the Bullpen!
« Topic Start: October 04, 2010, 10:42:23 AM »
Kilgore tweets:

Quote
Take a bow, #Nats' bullpen. It finished with a 3.33 ERA, seventh all-time among bullpens that threw at least 540 innings.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #1: October 04, 2010, 10:43:49 AM »
Better starting pitching and we might have really had something there...

Offline Terpfan76

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #2: October 04, 2010, 10:53:18 AM »
You know, that seems pretty amazing considering we only had one starter that could consistently give us 6ip in Livan. How many unearned runs did they give up though? Inherited?

Offline wpa2629

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #3: October 04, 2010, 12:50:26 PM »
:clap:

Offline tomterp

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #4: October 04, 2010, 12:56:57 PM »
Great job guys, really terrific effort and outstanding results.  Too bad the performance was overshadowed by other weaknesses on the team, but if we get a little starting pitching next year, the results will be a lot more apparent.

And let's not forget Matt Capps' own contribution this year.  He came out throwing strikes, and set the tone for the season with an outstanding performance, and congrats to him for moving on to postseason play.   :clap:  :woop:

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #5: October 04, 2010, 01:00:34 PM »
ALL TIME? :worship: We love you guys!

Offline Mathguy

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #6: October 04, 2010, 01:26:27 PM »
Agree.  I'd like to see Minnesota and Cincinnati in the World Series

Great job guys, really terrific effort and outstanding results.  Too bad the performance was overshadowed by other weaknesses on the team, but if we get a little starting pitching next year, the results will be a lot more apparent.

And let's not forget Matt Capps' own contribution this year.  He came out throwing strikes, and set the tone for the season with an outstanding performance, and congrats to him for moving on to postseason play.   :clap:  :woop:

Offline EdStroud

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #7: October 04, 2010, 01:36:07 PM »
Fine job by the pen men this year.  McCatty should get some credit he might have had a hand in there somewhere.  Hey. I'm not going to get banned for saying something positive am I?

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #8: October 04, 2010, 01:42:08 PM »
Good job guys!

Hopefully next year we see you half as much as we did this year!

Offline tomterp

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #9: October 04, 2010, 01:45:27 PM »
Fine job by the pen men this year.  McCatty should get some credit he might have had a hand in there somewhere.  Hey. I'm not going to get banned for saying something positive am I?

 :nono:

Offline PC

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #10: October 04, 2010, 03:56:36 PM »
Quote
Take a bow, #Nats' bullpen. It finished with a 3.33 ERA, seventh all-time among bullpens that threw at least 540 innings.

What an absurd qualification Kilgore has here.  The bullpen was 5th this season, period, pitching the most innings in baseball.  And the ERA was 3.35, not 3.33.

That's impressive enough and more relevant, frankly. 

Offline tomterp

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #11: October 04, 2010, 07:11:32 PM »
What an absurd qualification Kilgore has here.  The bullpen was 5th this season, period, pitching the most innings in baseball.  And the ERA was 3.35, not 3.33.

That's impressive enough and more relevant, frankly. 

I like Kilgore's factoid just fine.  It says, that despite an inordinate workload, that the bullpen didn't break, that it sustained a high level of performance not commonly seen.

Just a straight up ERA comparison doesn't provide the insight into their workload, or historical context.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #12: October 04, 2010, 07:27:24 PM »
Capps is a FA this year. Would the Nats'offer him a substantial contract to close as we really have a bunch of very good set-up guys.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #13: October 04, 2010, 07:34:04 PM »
Capps is a FA this year. Would the Nats'offer him a substantial contract to close as we really have a bunch of very good set-up guys.

He's got an extra year of arbitration, but the Twins may non-tender him as he'll be due something absurd like 8 million.

Offline Dave B

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #14: October 04, 2010, 07:45:41 PM »
this also could be a consequence of other team's laying down after they are up big after beating up a starter and our offense doing nothing

Offline Sharp

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #15: October 04, 2010, 07:47:23 PM »
this also could be a consequence of other team's laying down after they are up big after beating up a starter and our offense doing nothing
Then you'd expect other bad teams (e.g. the 2009 Nats) to have great bullpens as well, but somehow that theory doesn't stand up to even the tiniest bit of scrutiny.

Offline Dave B

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #16: October 04, 2010, 08:27:22 PM »
Then you'd expect other bad teams (e.g. the 2009 Nats) to have great bullpens as well, but somehow that theory doesn't stand up to even the tiniest bit of scrutiny.

no. i'm not saying it is the only reason, but it could be a contributing factor. it does stand up to scrutiny

i'm not saying the bullpen was crap, but at 540 inning pitched, if other teams have mercy on you during a blowout and spare you 10 runs (1 per 16 games) over the course the of season, they save you from having a 3.5 ERA which over the history of baseball might drop you out of the top 50, 100, whatever.  and also maybe not too many bullpens pitch 540 innings.  so you just end up being the 7th best bullpen on a team with crappy starters.

the fifth in the league ranking is better and more relevant. the 7th all time thing is one of those stupid overly defined stats

the workload makes the achievement impressive. but that is counteracted by the laying down effect. i dont know which effect is stronger. and i'm pretty sure you didnt figure it out in the less than two minutes it took you to reply to my post. so i think you need to scrutinize it a little bit

Offline Sharp

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #17: October 04, 2010, 09:05:34 PM »
no. i'm not saying it is the only reason, but it could be a contributing factor. it does stand up to scrutiny

i'm not saying the bullpen was crap, but at 540 inning pitched, if other teams have mercy on you during a blowout and spare you 10 runs (1 per 16 games) over the course the of season, they save you from having a 3.5 ERA which over the history of baseball might drop you out of the top 50, 100, whatever.  and also maybe not too many bullpens pitch 540 innings.  so you just end up being the 7th best bullpen on a team with crappy starters.

the fifth in the league ranking is better and more relevant. the 7th all time thing is one of those stupid overly defined stats

the workload makes the achievement impressive. but that is counteracted by the laying down effect. i dont know which effect is stronger. and i'm pretty sure you didnt figure it out in the less than two minutes it took you to reply to my post. so i think you need to scrutinize it a little bit
I really don't, and here's why: time and time again, it has been shown that, on average, there is no "clutch" hitting in baseball.  That works both ways: the majority of players don't step it up in critical situations or shrink in them, nor is that the case in non-critical situations.  Baseball is not like other sports, like football and basketball, where for multiple reasons (including the physically exhausting nature of the sport) people often "let up" on obviously inferior opponents.  In baseball, teams are encouraged to score as many runs as they can, however they can, with minor exceptions like not stealing when you're up by ten runs (incidentally, stealing is rarely a good strategy unless you're really good at it, so this may actually be HELPING these teams).  If that were not the case, we would see fewer runs scored, on average, in later innings (since in any blowout teams should be "laying down" around that time).  In fact we do not see that at all: the only inning in which more runs are scored is the first, and when you break down the data you find that that's only because leadoff hitters tend to have really high OBPs and score a few percentage points more frequently than other hitters on average (which only really matters in the first inning).

You'd have a much stronger argument if you were talking about the pitching side of things, as (again for physical reasons) teams frequently will let their B or C level relievers pitch in games that are not close, and/or take out their starters earlier in these games.  This in part helps explain why the losing team sometimes seems to be able to score more runs in blowouts than in close games.  But the only reason for that is because for pitchers, time spent in the game is (or at least is thought to be) directly related to their effectiveness and in how many games they can appear.  For batters, that's not a real consideration.  That also, if anything, should make the bullpen's achievement more impressive--if, according to you, we were on the losing end of so many blowouts, it is a credit to our bullpen that even our "B team" of relievers managed to do pretty damn well.

I could keep going, or I could point to a bunch of other teams with poor offense and defense but lousy bullpens, but I don't know if it's really worth it.  Ultimately, even if you were right (which I would say there's a > 99% chance you're not), the bullpen can only pitch to the hitters it faces.  You can't "blame" them for pitching behind a crappy rotation and/or anemic offense.

Offline Dave B

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #18: October 04, 2010, 10:46:44 PM »
I really don't, and here's why: time and time again, it has been shown that, on average, there is no "clutch" hitting in baseball.  That works both ways: the majority of players don't step it up in critical situations or shrink in them, nor is that the case in non-critical situations.  Baseball is not like other sports, like football and basketball, where for multiple reasons (including the physically exhausting nature of the sport) people often "let up" on obviously inferior opponents.  In baseball, teams are encouraged to score as many runs as they can, however they can, with minor exceptions like not stealing when you're up by ten runs (incidentally, stealing is rarely a good strategy unless you're really good at it, so this may actually be HELPING these teams).  If that were not the case, we would see fewer runs scored, on average, in later innings (since in any blowout teams should be "laying down" around that time).  In fact we do not see that at all: the only inning in which more runs are scored is the first, and when you break down the data you find that that's only because leadoff hitters tend to have really high OBPs and score a few percentage points more frequently than other hitters on average (which only really matters in the first inning).

You'd have a much stronger argument if you were talking about the pitching side of things, as (again for physical reasons) teams frequently will let their B or C level relievers pitch in games that are not close, and/or take out their starters earlier in these games.  This in part helps explain why the losing team sometimes seems to be able to score more runs in blowouts than in close games.  But the only reason for that is because for pitchers, time spent in the game is (or at least is thought to be) directly related to their effectiveness and in how many games they can appear.  For batters, that's not a real consideration.  That also, if anything, should make the bullpen's achievement more impressive--if, according to you, we were on the losing end of so many blowouts, it is a credit to our bullpen that even our "B team" of relievers managed to do pretty damn well.

I could keep going, or I could point to a bunch of other teams with poor offense and defense but lousy bullpens, but I don't know if it's really worth it.  Ultimately, even if you were right (which I would say there's a > 99% chance you're not), the bullpen can only pitch to the hitters it faces.  You can't "blame" them for pitching behind a crappy rotation and/or anemic offense.

thank you for scrutinizing

you can totally be reverse clutch. you might not be able to focus more or elevate your game, but you can definitely intentionally dial it down if you want to go home. but people do probably like to pad their stats.  scrubs on winning teams might also find their way into a blowout, diminishing the level of competition.

if a pitcher knows a runner isnt stealing, he can just focus on the batter

the pitching side of things you mention helps explain why there might not be a decrease in runs in the later innings: the losing team scores some garbage runs

a pitcher on the losing end of a blow out is still trying 100%. a batter might dial it down to 80% by not working the count or swinging for the fences.  our B and C guy trying hard against starters going 80% could be to our ERA advantage. if the starters were pulled, our B and C guys versus their B and C guys would be a wash or maybe even still slightly in our favor

i'm also not saying that poor offenses and defenses make for a good looking bullpen. i'm not talking about an ERA difference of 1.00.

we probably had an above average bullpen that might have gotten a little help

there are some things that will serve to lower ERA and some that will increase it. and it can't just be dismissed either way



i'm not saying the nats bullpen was crappy. but i think it is possible they could have had a few points shave off their ERA

Offline Sharp

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #19: October 04, 2010, 11:23:09 PM »
You're talking about hypotheticals.  I'm talking about statistics.  Statistically, there is no evidence for the phenomenon you describe, of batters in blowouts "dialing down" their hitting or of pitchers "trying harder" (seriously there is even less evidence for clutch pitching than there is for clutch hitting).  Maybe it's true in individual cases, but in aggregate--like, when you're talking about an entire season's worth of bullpen pitching statistics--it doesn't seem to happen.  If it exists, it is extremely small--not in the sense of "not a 1.00 ERA difference" but probably a less than 0.05 ERA difference.  To me, something with that small an effect might be worth analyzing, but shouldn't really factor into discussions about the overall effectiveness of a bullpen.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #20: October 04, 2010, 11:38:10 PM »
Sharp is 100% right, Dave's point doesn't even make logical sense.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #21: October 05, 2010, 01:03:59 AM »
Let's assume for a moment it does exist.  The pen was in a lot of situations like that in 2009 as well and it was one of the statistically worst bullpens, if not the worst pen in baseball.  This years pen was fantastic.  I hope that continues because it will be vital once this train does get rolling and could accelerate the process if it continues.

Offline NatsDad14

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #22: October 05, 2010, 08:07:29 AM »
I don't think batters dial it down at all in blowouts. They only get 4-5 PA per game so they try as hard as they can to make them worth it.

Offline blue911

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #23: October 05, 2010, 01:29:57 PM »
I really don't, and here's why: time and time again, it has been shown that, on average, there is no "clutch" hitting in baseball.

Can you provide a link for these studies? Also what methodology was used to reach this conclusion? I can show that starting pitchers pitch better in the 9th inning then they do in the 5th but it would be a biased study.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: All Hail the Bullpen!
« Reply #24: October 05, 2010, 02:39:45 PM »
Can you provide a link for these studies? Also what methodology was used to reach this conclusion? I can show that starting pitchers pitch better in the 9th inning then they do in the 5th but it would be a biased study.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2656

this should get you started