Author Topic: Nationals @ Mets, Game 3  (Read 19697 times)

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Offline GMUNat

  • Posts: 5230
Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 3
« Reply #50: October 03, 2010, 04:10:07 PM »
Man on 1st with 1 out becomes RISP with 1 out.  That is a flat-out worse situation.  Take a look at the run probabilities.  If it were really as clear-cut as you make it sound, Burnett would IBB whenever there was a runner on first, but he doesn't.  It's all about who Wright is, and he is not enough of a threat to make it worth IBBing him.  Besides that, Burnett is not just a GB guy, this season he is also a strikeout guy.  By IBBing someone you completely eliminate the potential for the K, which is obviously the best outcome.
It's a good decision because Wright is a 1.062 OPS hitter vs. Lefties. He has always crushed them in his career.