My contention is that Marquis is likely to be a 4.50-5.00 ERA pitcher next season and that doesn't cut it for me, especially with what we're paying him. When he is on the mound I do not expect this team to win. I think it's funny that you're still blaming his most recent horrible outing on Pudge, but that's neither here nor there. Livo has a ton of quality starts this season--way more than Marquis--and I still don't expect him to be a great pitcher next year. Hell, Ubaldo was untouchable at the All Star Break (15 wins and a low-2's ERA) and right now he has an ERA over 4.00 and has just one last chance at 20 wins. Which is to say that "5 of his last seven games were quality starts" means very little to me, especially when one of them was one of the worst outings of any starter this year and his overall peripherals aren't good. Going into 2011, we currently have three, possibly four starters vying for "back end of the rotation" status and one potential number two. Is that acceptable to you? It isn't to me.
None of that takes away from this game, BTW, but please be realistic. Straight up, what kind of numbers do you think Marquis will post next year? If you expect an ERA under 4.00 (what would be necessary for me to possibly consider his signing a net positive after what he did this year) I'll be shocked.
I couldn't care less about ERA. I'm interested in stats that actually measure what the pitcher does like K/9, K/BB, FIP etc.
You also said Livan is turning back into a pumpkin. Since the start of August he has the following results: QS, QS, QS, QS, bad start, bad start, bad start, QS, QS, bad start, QS.
That's 3 of the last 4 QS and 7 of the last 11 from a guy who got a 1 year, 1m extension.
I'll leave the sky is falling garbage to those who seem to do nothing but ignore the actual numbers.
The last month plus has seen JZ return from injury (his only truly bad stat has been HR/9), Lannan pitch better than any 2 month stretch in his career, Livan continue to be a solid SP, and Marquis getting better nearly every start. That's four guys who should be part of the rotation next season, along with a FA or trade, with Detwiler and Maya starting the year in AAA and being ready whenever performance or injury requires it.