Author Topic: Nationals vs Phillies, Game 2  (Read 22724 times)

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Offline Sharp

  • Posts: 3583
Re: Nationals vs Phillies, Game 2
« Reply #175: September 29, 2010, 12:17:49 AM »
I couldn't care less about ERA.  I'm interested in stats that actually measure what the pitcher does like K/9, K/BB, FIP etc.

You also said Livan is turning back into a pumpkin.  Since the start of August he has the following results:  QS, QS, QS, QS, bad start, bad start, bad start, QS, QS, bad start, QS.

That's 3 of the last 4 QS and 7 of the last 11 from a guy who got a 1 year, 1m extension.

I'll leave the sky is falling garbage to those who seem to do nothing but ignore the actual numbers.

The last month plus has seen JZ return from injury (his only truly bad stat has been HR/9), Lannan pitch better than any 2 month stretch in his career, Livan continue to be a solid SP, and Marquis getting better nearly every start.  That's four guys who should be part of the rotation next season, along with a FA or trade, with Detwiler and Maya starting the year in AAA and being ready whenever performance or injury requires it.
Here is the thing about quality starts: you could have nothing but quality starts and still have a 4.50 ERA.  Quality starts are a better stat than wins I guess, but not by much.  For someone like Livo who is not on a pitch count and is left out there for 6+ IP nearly every time, it's much more telling if you don't get a QS IMO.  You said it yourself... he has either not gone six innings or given up more than three runs (or both) in five of his last eleven starts.  Lannan I believe in... but the Lannan I believe in is a solid, 4.00-ish pitcher (basically who he was during his two "good" seasons).  JZ I am and have always been high on.  As for Marquis, you say you don't care about ERA?  Great, look up his peripherals since he got back from injury.  They're really not all that fantastic.  They are, in fact, the reason I'm predicting the ERA I am.  Detwiler and Maya are maybes who have yet to prove anything at the major league level.  If we're lucky, they'll be good.  But we can't rely on that.