Author Topic: Rank the Nats top prospects  (Read 4184 times)

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Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #50: September 07, 2010, 11:30:49 AM »
From all I've heard, he's still making progress behind the plate!

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #51: September 07, 2010, 11:44:03 AM »
From the games I've seen, Norris still needs a ton of work on his receiving skills, most specifically with 12 to 6 curves and sliders outside of the plate.  His arm is fantastic, though, and his role in stopping the running game will rarely come in to question.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #52: September 07, 2010, 12:02:48 PM »
Eh? I always thought that having a good offensive 2B was a massive luxury.
Nah, it's closer to average.  38 second basemen played more than 20 games at 2d this year and had more than 200 PAs.  18 of them had an OPS above MLB average (.732 per ESPN).  For SS, only 10 out of 40 met the 20/200 criteria.  Only 3 SS meeting those criteria had an OPS > .800 (Castro is at .798), while at 2d 10 players meet those criteria and have an OPS > .800.

Espinosa at SS is an elite bat.  Espinosa's offense at 2d is much more common.

Offline Burgess

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #53: September 07, 2010, 01:24:11 PM »
Yay. We've got a mediocre 1B on the way.

His defence is mediocre yes but his bat isn't. He has low power numbers for a typical first baseman but still, close to 20hr's and 80 rbi's with a decent average isn't what I call mediocre, especially for a guy that just turned 22 years old ans might get better with time.

Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #54: September 07, 2010, 02:30:58 PM »
His defence is mediocre yes but his bat isn't. He has low power numbers for a typical first baseman but still, close to 20hr's and 80 rbi's with a decent average isn't what I call mediocre, especially for a guy that just turned 22 years old ans might get better with time.

I'm as big a fan of Marrero as there is and I can say his bat is mediocre.  The knee injury and multiple position changes seem to have slowed him down.  He's running out of the "young for his league" excuse.  An .800 OPS at AA isn't good for a 1B.  He's still only 22 so that next stage of development still has to be waited for, but right now Marrero doesn't really belong on the radar.

Offline Burgess

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #55: September 07, 2010, 05:04:47 PM »
I'm as big a fan of Marrero as there is and I can say his bat is mediocre.  The knee injury and multiple position changes seem to have slowed him down.  He's running out of the "young for his league" excuse.  An .800 OPS at AA isn't good for a 1B.  He's still only 22 so that next stage of development still has to be waited for, but right now Marrero doesn't really belong on the radar.

but mediocre is a strong word. If his numbers are mediocre then '' average '' is a guy that hits 25 hr's and close to 100 rbi's every year. Mediocre could be said about Rhinehart's bat for example.....and 21,22 at AA is well fit for '' league average age ''. I've no idea what ops is and it does look low but what about his OBP? 350. seems good to me, you need to know how to bat to post numbers like .280 20hr 80+rbi's and a obp of .350. I think we still haven't seen the best from him, I'm happy he got a lot of at bats this year.  We need to cut some slack to this kid seriously, yes he is no A-Rod (as we expected him to be) but the kid still has potential. You won't find much Adam Dunn's in every year's draft. Marrero was picked up in the bowden era , he was aiming for potential homerun picks but in baseball, you wont succeed with that. You could try such risks if you are named the yankees though. I'm satisfied that he isn't putting numbers like .230 14hr 55 rbi's and with a very poor strikeout judgment. I don't expect him to replace Adam Dunn one day but he will get his shot.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #56: September 07, 2010, 05:13:36 PM »
and 21,22 at AA is well fit for '' league average age ''

Taking into account that the league average for the Eastern League was 25 last year, 21/22 would be considerably younger.

FWIW, the average age in the Carolina League was 23.

Offline Burgess

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #57: September 07, 2010, 05:19:24 PM »
Taking into account that the league average for the Eastern League was 25 last year, 21/22 would be considerably younger.

FWIW, the average age in the Carolina League was 23.

Yes, that's why I said '' 21/22 '' would comfortably fit into league average, meaning league average is higher. Seriously, scouts still see some good things with Marrero, Nats fans make it seem like he is the big bust....

Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #58: September 07, 2010, 05:21:01 PM »
but mediocre is a strong word. If his numbers are mediocre then '' average '' is a guy that hits 25 hr's and close to 100 rbi's every year. Mediocre could be said about Rhinehart's bat for example.....and 21,22 at AA is well fit for '' league average age ''. I've no idea what ops is and it does look low but what about his OBP? 350. seems good to me. We need to cut some slack to this kid seriously, yes he is no A-Rod (as we expected him to be) but the kid still has potential.

OPS, and particularly SLG, are more important than a nothing stat like RBI for 1B.  Using an equivalency calculator he projects to .231/.273/.345, 12 HR, 55 RBI, 31 BB, 112 K.  No one with marginal power and a high K rate should be playing 1B especially when expected to be around a .618 OPS.  Doesn't project very well and he's 23 next year and likely not ready for AAA.  Add in the barely useful glove and Marrero seems to have stalled.  He really should put another AA year in and play at a much higher level before even being moved up to AAA.

Offline Burgess

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #59: September 07, 2010, 05:31:37 PM »
OPS, and particularly SLG, are more important than a nothing stat like RBI for 1B.  Using an equivalency calculator he projects to .231/.273/.345, 12 HR, 55 RBI, 31 BB, 112 K.  No one with marginal power and a high K rate should be playing 1B especially when expected to be around a .618 OPS.  Doesn't project very well and he's 23 next year and likely not ready for AAA.  Add in the barely useful glove and Marrero seems to have stalled.  He really should put another AA year in and play at a much higher level before even being moved up to AAA.

You may be right, I've no idea about SLG or OPS to argue with you but still his numbers don't look bad to me. I think they are good enough to earn him a pass to Syracuse next year atleast.... I'm not ready to give up on him yet. I think him not dominating the minors is normal since he was drafted as a high schooler and trying to get the hang of things (i.e Desmond), I may be wrong but I think some prospects just start showing more power when they are close to the majors or in the majors. 23 years old at AA starts being so so but at AAA, 23 years old is perfectly fine and he doesn't turn 23 until 3 months after the start of season.Danny Espinosa and Zimmerman weren't expected to have that much power If we extend Dunn, his future might be elsewhere, we may trade him.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #60: September 07, 2010, 05:35:21 PM »
I agree on keeping him at AA for another year (let him stay at AA for another year, he is much younger than most of the competition there), but disagree on the defense.  The negative defensive reviews he has received at first over the years is likely more a result of the position change.  Marrero has very good range (makes a bunch of good dives) and has been picking balls out of the dirt and grabbing those that are destined to sail over his head much better than he has in any of the previous seasons.  Players improve at their positions over time, but Marrero seems to still be dogged by the early labels that were attached to him.  And while I love this kid's bat potential, he needs to make some adjustments before he can realize his full potential in this respect.  He seems to go for the big hit quite a bit, when he has the ability to place the ball and get a ton of gap doubles.

Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #61: September 07, 2010, 05:41:36 PM »
You may be right, I've no idea about SLG or OPS to argue with you but still his numbers don't look bad to me. I think they are good enough to earn him a pass to Syracuse next year atleast.... I'm not ready to give up on him yet. I think him not dominating the minors is normal since he was drafted as a high schooler and trying to get the hang of things (i.e Desmond), I may be wrong but I think some prospects just start showing more power when they are close to the majors or in the majors. 23 years old at AA starts being so so but at AAA, 23 years old is perfectly fine and he doesn't turn 23 until 3 months after the start of season.Danny Espinosa and Zimmerman weren't expected to have that much power If we extend Dunn, his future might be elsewhere, we may trade him.

Zim was expected to grow into his power.  Espinosa is on a great hot streak to start off but his offense projects above Marrero and he's a MI.  A legit 1B prospect should absolutely decimate AA.  Eric Hosmer for the Royals is a 1B prospect.  He turns 21 in late October.  He popped more AA HRs than Marrero in 300+ fewer ABs and drew more BB than K.  Marrero will likely max out as a decent AAAA player unless he has a sudden jump next year.

Offline Burgess

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #62: September 07, 2010, 05:55:40 PM »
Zim was expected to grow into his power.  Espinosa is on a great hot streak to start off but his offense projects above Marrero and he's a MI.  A legit 1B prospect should absolutely decimate AA.  Eric Hosmer for the Royals is a 1B prospect.  He turns 21 in late October.  He popped more AA HRs than Marrero in 300+ fewer ABs and drew more BB than K.  Marrero will likely max out as a decent AAAA player unless he has a sudden jump next year.

Hosmer was a 3rd overall pick, last year he had a so so year (and so did Moustakas). Both explode this year, it's normal because they have lots of talent that warranted high draft positions. It took a year or two for them to adjust, for some other guys, it takes more time (i.e Desmond). Bernadina and Desmond have been in this organization for so long that I can remember them back from the expos days. Both are now playing for the Nats. Everts was a total bust but at some point, he was back right on track despite being in the organization for a decade, he was only still 24 since he was picked out of HS but this year, he has struggled badly. With high schoolers, you gotta show patience, these young kids haven't played with wood bat for 4 years at college. Look at the raw power of Burgess, you won't find much kids with his power but he has several weakneses that will take him time to improve on. Technically, if Marrero went college route, he would be a senior that would have been picked this year. He is already at AA that might play AAA next year, if he has a good season next year he might play some games in September next year ( he will be only 23 ).

Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #63: September 07, 2010, 05:57:32 PM »
I agree on keeping him at AA for another year (let him stay at AA for another year, he is much younger than most of the competition there), but disagree on the defense.  The negative defensive reviews he has received at first over the years is likely more a result of the position change.  Marrero has very good range (makes a bunch of good dives) and has been picking balls out of the dirt and grabbing those that are destined to sail over his head much better than he has in any of the previous seasons.  Players improve at their positions over time, but Marrero seems to still be dogged by the early labels that were attached to him.  And while I love this kid's bat potential, he needs to make some adjustments before he can realize his full potential in this respect.  He seems to go for the big hit quite a bit, when he has the ability to place the ball and get a ton of gap doubles.

Haven't gotten to see him in AA.  Hope you're right on the defense.  He didn't look comfortable at all at Potomac.

Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #64: September 07, 2010, 06:02:07 PM »
Hosmer was a 3rd overall pick, last year he had a so so year (and so did Moustakas). Both explode this year, it's normal because they have lots of talent that warranted high draft positions. It took a year or two for them to adjust, for some other guys, it takes more time (i.e Desmond). With high schoolers, you gotta show patience, these young kids haven't played with wood bat for 4 years at college. Look at the raw power of Burgess, you won't find much kids with his power but he has several weakneses that will take him time to improve on. Technically, if Marrero went college route, he would be a senior that would have been picked this year. He is already at AA that might play AAA next year, if he has a good season next year he might play some games in September next year ( he will be only 23 ).

It still remains that his bat projects to a backup catcher on the MLB level right now.  He's got to make a very big jump at the AA level before he should even be in the conversation for 1B. 

Average age is an okay thing to look at but a team like Potomac has a group of 9 guys who are already 25+, several of whom have been demoted, and 2 more about to hit that age level.  That definitely skews the average age number pretty severely.  It would be nice to find median/mean numbers at each level as I'm pretty sure it would chop those "average" numbers way down.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #65: September 07, 2010, 06:07:14 PM »
For those that care... I called into MLB Radio this afternoon to talk to Bowden about Espinosa.

Asked him if there was anyone else in the system outside of Marrero or Norris that would be an impact bat (that he drafted).

He responded 'no', then he proceeded to say that he felt that Burgess and Marrero were disappointments and did not develop as he had hoped.


Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #66: September 07, 2010, 06:07:18 PM »
Haven't gotten to see him in AA.  Hope you're right on the defense.  He didn't look comfortable at all at Potomac.

He still isn't a "good" 1B, but he isn't on the same level he was at with Potomac for sure.  If I had to project him based on his performance this year and his potential, I would say he has the potential to be an above average 1B.  Agree on the bat, though, he needs to make some strides in the next year.

Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #67: September 07, 2010, 06:10:26 PM »
For those that care... I called into MLB Radio this afternoon to talk to Bowden about Espinosa.

Asked him if there was anyone else in the system outside of Marrero or Norris that would be an impact bat (that he drafted).

He responded 'no', then he proceeded to say that he felt that Burgess and Marrero were disappointments and did not develop as he had hoped.

He says that after Burgess has his bat break out?  Wow, Bowden is still an idiot.

Offline Burgess

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #68: September 07, 2010, 06:29:24 PM »
For those that care... I called into MLB Radio this afternoon to talk to Bowden about Espinosa.

Asked him if there was anyone else in the system outside of Marrero or Norris that would be an impact bat (that he drafted).

He responded 'no', then he proceeded to say that he felt that Burgess and Marrero were disappointments and did not develop as he had hoped.



Bowden wanted high ceiling high school prospects while his team was a disaster. High schooler don't make the majors in a year or two beside if they are named Alex Rodriguez. Holy, what an horrible gm.

Offline The Hammer

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #69: September 07, 2010, 06:33:45 PM »
Bowden wanted high ceiling high school prospects while his team was a disaster. High schooler don't make the majors in a year or two beside if they are named Alex Rodriguez. Holy, what an horrible gm.
If you have a crap system, why would you go with safe picks? The team was devoid of talent. You aren't winning by drafting Jeff Kobernus or Trevor Holder. I'm pretty sure the team recognized that they needed to rebuild which is why they punted 2006-2008 and hoped that the draft talent would take over from there. The Royals did a similar thing. Had the worst farm system when Dayton Moore entered in 2006. Now they are lights years ahead of any other system.

Offline The Hammer

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #70: September 07, 2010, 06:37:14 PM »
He says that after Burgess has his bat break out?  Wow, Bowden is still an idiot.
To be fair. I don't think Bowden is checking the Nats system daily for stats on the guys he drafted. He probably checked a few weeks ago and saw Burgess having a mediocre season in A ball. Burgess has been a disappointment. He had a .982 OPS and .561 Slg his first year. Then had 24 HR and .477 SLG his second year as a 19 year old. Since then he has been disappointing. In 3 seasons in Potomac, he has a .427 SLG and .762 OPS. That is disappointing for a guy touted as a guy with a lot of raw power.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #71: September 07, 2010, 06:38:22 PM »
Welcome to WNFF, Hammer!


Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #72: September 07, 2010, 06:43:21 PM »
If you have a crap system, why would you go with safe picks? The team was devoid of talent. You aren't winning by drafting Jeff Kobernus or Trevor Holder. I'm pretty sure the team recognized that they needed to rebuild which is why they punted 2006-2008 and hoped that the draft talent would take over from there. The Royals did a similar thing. Had the worst farm system when Dayton Moore entered in 2006. Now they are lights years ahead of any other system.

The Royals are not light years ahead of any system.  They're good, and Moustakas/Hosmer are great, but there's still not the total talent that two Rizzo drafts have given the Nats.  Texas, Tampa and Atlanta are all definitely better as well.

Offline The Hammer

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #73: September 07, 2010, 06:54:13 PM »
The Royals are not light years ahead of any system.  They're good, and Moustakas/Hosmer are great, but there's still not the total talent that two Rizzo drafts have given the Nats.  Texas, Tampa and Atlanta are all definitely better as well.
Are you saying that you would rather have the Nats system than the Royals system?

The Royals have 5 guys who are top 30 prospects in baseball (Hosmer, Moustakas, Montgomery, Myers, and Lamb). Not to mention Duffy, Melville, Colon, and Dwyer. That is 9 guys who are potential Top 100 guys. How many teams could say that? Tell me what Nats pitching prospects are better than Montgomery, Lamb, Duffy, or Dwyer? You tell me how many Nats prospects will make the top 100? Maybe 4 (Espinosa, Harper, Ramos, Norris).

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Rank the Nats top prospects
« Reply #74: September 07, 2010, 06:56:28 PM »
Cole... possibly Solis as well.