I've seen it happen too many times... the Nats will give up on Broadway and either trade him or leave him in the minors. Once Johnson comes off the DL, Church becomes the team's 4th outfielder. With both him and Byrd able to step in as needed, one or the other becomes expendable, and Since Church has the most trade value, he'll be the one most likely to go, if the Nats can acquire what they need to improve the starting 8 or pitching staff.
Plus the main factor is the payroll.
Every analyst with a good feel for the situation (Boswell, etc.) believes the payroll will climb to at least 80 MIL with new owners. With that kind of increase (equivalent to adding the entire Tampa Bay or KC roster - not that you'd want to ad them) Nats are not gonna be installing marginal prospects like Broadway at 1B (no knock on Broadway but nobody is projecting this guy as much more than a backup).
Look for Bowden (or his successor) to trade Johnson + prospects for an elite MLB 1st baseman with serious pop.
I doubt any of the prospects in the high minors (excluding Galarraga and Zimmerman who were just promoted) will ever play for the Nats, other than in a brief backup role. There just is not a lot of real talent there as what Minaya didn't trade away is already in the majors. Nats will use these guys as trading fodder and try to preserve the perceived real prospects lower down in the system.
I agree that Church may well go, tho if he does it will be for quality. Kind of ironic: if the team had stayed in Montreal he likely would have been installed everyday in the OF and could be putting up big numbers. Course in Montreal he might not be having his borderline ROY season (or ROY numbers anyway - not sure he has or will play enuff for ROY consideration).
I think if the Nats don't trade Wilkerson, Church is gone for sure. If they trade Wilkie however - and add an elite outfielder - its possible they might go with Church in 2006 if he continues to play like he has so far for the rest of the season.
A lot of this is because the 2006 FA crop is not that strong so Nats will have to rely on trades more than FA signings. Johnny Damon is kind of the most prized FA by default. Only real dark horse could be Nomar if he comes back like he's supposed to in August and looks to be like the Nomar of old. Other than that there will be some pretty good players but no real marquee guys.
The real interesting choice will be 3B. Seems clear that while Vinnie sure isn't finished, he doesn't seem able to play anywhere near 162 anymore effectively. Nats will be faced with 2 not very attractive possibilities: either trying to rush Zimmerman to the majors, have him split time with Vinnie in 2006 and hopefully take over by season end OR expending resources on a quality 3B and blocking Zimmerman's path to the majors (unles you could pick up a guy with 1 year left on his contract). I'm guessing working Zimmerman in over the season would be any GM's dream scenario but would be awful fast.