Author Topic: Julio Lugo and Danys Baez  (Read 4165 times)

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Offline Dave B

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Topic Start: July 19, 2005, 10:15:46 AM »
Apparently Bowden is looking at Julio Lugo and Danys Baez. I dont know what it would take to get Lugo in particular.  I think you can give up Church for that.  The left side is the infield is where a .295 hitter will make the biggest improvement.  That is a hundred point improvement over Guzman.  

It makes sense short term.  He is 29 as opposed to Church's 26 or 27.  I dont know if you want to give up on Church now.  

Can you imagine replacing a .190 hitter with a .295 hitter?  Thats almost an infinite improvement.

mar (AKA pasqual AKA JMG)

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #1: July 19, 2005, 01:10:48 PM »
Hard to see exactly how thois would work as hard to believe they would take Guzman unless nats eat a sizable porion of his remaining contract and I dunno if Bowden has the authority (or budget) to do that.

Maybe, maybe, maybe they'd take him if Bowden throws in a good minor league propect (esentially for free to offset the cost of Guzman's salary).

Guess theoretically some deal could be made for Lugo and Baez (or just Lugo) that didn't involve Guzman if TB refuses to take him. Hard to see who else would take Guzman in a trade but I guess if Cordero was waived you could basically bench Guzman and play Lugo (tho that's not a recipe for team chemistry).

Offline tomterp

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #2: July 19, 2005, 03:15:30 PM »
Here are some 05 salaries to mull over:

Baez - $3.75m
Lugo - $3.25m

Guzman $4.2m

This would seem to provide the opportunity to send Guzman plus some younger, cheaper players to TB in exchange for Baez and Lugo, and still keep the salaries relatively neutral.

mar (AKA pasqual AKA JMG)

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #3: July 19, 2005, 03:26:51 PM »
Quote from: "tomterp"
Here are some 05 salaries to mull over:

Baez - $3.75m
Lugo - $3.25m

Guzman $4.2m

This would seem to provide the opportunity to send Guzman plus some younger, cheaper players to TB in exchange for Baez and Lugo, and still keep the salaries relatively neutral.


yeah. I guess its a question of stepping back and trying to assess guzman's value without having watched him every AB of every game this season like I have.

Reality is he's at least an average SS still (plus arm, average range) and might go back to his .260 BA in Tropicana plus at least they got the DH so he's not quite as much of a detriment.

Nats are officially saying Lugo would be a backup to replace Spivey in that role and spell Guzman, but I ain't buying it  :wink:

Offline Kenz aFan

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #4: July 19, 2005, 05:05:50 PM »
Guzman just may not be a National League type hitter, but even with him only hitting .190 in the NL, it may take some very imaginary thinking to work a deal with the Devil Rays. Because Baez and Lugo earn a combined $7 million, the Devil Rays will want to end up paying less while still getting value. And I'm assuming they aren't talking about acquiring Aubrey Huff.

For Baez it would probably take Sunny Kim and a high prospect (ie, Bill Bray) and to get them to pay all of Guzman's contract, my guess is the Nats would have to offer Ryan Church and a medium prospect.

We'd be taking on $7 million in payroll and giving up either $5 million (if they take Kim) or $7 million (if they take Armas), plus they get the prospects. But I'm assuming that Guzman might be dealt, he may end up staying and Lugo would become an often played (3B and SS) reserve. Also Lugo, with his speed could bat at the top of the order, moving Wilkerson to the middle someplace.

mar (AKA pasqual AKA JMG)

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #5: July 19, 2005, 05:42:07 PM »
I'd think it would die if Church had to be included. I could see any of Cepicky, Harris, Broadway, Godwin maybe Marlon Byrd but I just dunno if Bowden wants to move Church with the year he is having and the potential he's showing.

Wilson's gone after the year, who knows what they're gonna do with Wilkerson so Church has value in the OF.

Kinda doubt they'd take Armas. Not like he's gonna sell any extra tickets at Tropicana for the remainder of this season and he's a FA at year end (course maybe Tampa be his dream team to sign with as a FA; not much respect but no pressure either).

Offline luckyexposfan

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #6: July 19, 2005, 05:50:31 PM »
I like Wilkie but I'm starting to think Church could be a better future leadoff man.  I'm just talking out of my bum though :lol:

Either way, I'd prefer not to see either of them go, but if we had to trade one, I'd much rather it be Wilkerson.

Hayden

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #7: July 19, 2005, 10:37:34 PM »
Church is the future of this team, along with Larry Broadway. Maybe deal Byrd or Spivey if he returns. I can see why they want to acquire Lugo, with Guzman unable to do much, and Caroll not a full time player. Maybe Tampa Bay would take Guzman off the Nat's hands.

Offline Kenz aFan

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #8: July 19, 2005, 11:57:02 PM »
I'm willing to bet that neither Church nor Broadway will be part of the team in any major way (if at all). They'll both eventually be traded... If not this year, then next.

Hayden

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #9: July 20, 2005, 12:17:46 AM »
Quote from: "Kenz aFan"
I'm willing to bet that neither Church nor Broadway will be part of the team in any major way (if at all). They'll both eventually be traded... If not this year, then next.


Why would you say that? Both have potential to be everyday players, with Church already proving that.

Offline Kenz aFan

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #10: July 20, 2005, 12:47:55 AM »
I've seen it happen too many times... the Nats will give up on Broadway and either trade him or leave him in the minors. Once Johnson comes off the DL, Church becomes the team's 4th outfielder. With both him and Byrd able to step in as needed, one or the other becomes expendable, and Since Church has the most trade value, he'll be the one most likely to go, if the Nats can acquire what they need to improve the starting 8 or pitching staff.

CoryFromTaylorsville

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #11: July 20, 2005, 11:02:29 AM »
Bowden has called Church the "next Jim Edmonds."  I don't think we'll be dealing Church for a Lugo or Baez.  If its for a player like Schmidt, maybe...

mar (AKA pasqual AKA JMG)

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #12: July 20, 2005, 11:24:20 AM »
Quote from: "Kenz aFan"
I've seen it happen too many times... the Nats will give up on Broadway and either trade him or leave him in the minors. Once Johnson comes off the DL, Church becomes the team's 4th outfielder. With both him and Byrd able to step in as needed, one or the other becomes expendable, and Since Church has the most trade value, he'll be the one most likely to go, if the Nats can acquire what they need to improve the starting 8 or pitching staff.


Yeah.
Plus the main factor is the payroll.
Every analyst with a good feel for the situation (Boswell, etc.) believes the payroll will climb to at least 80 MIL with new owners. With that kind of increase (equivalent to adding the entire Tampa Bay or KC roster - not that you'd want to ad them) Nats are not gonna be installing marginal prospects like Broadway at 1B (no knock on Broadway but nobody is projecting this guy as much more than a backup).

Look for Bowden (or his successor) to trade Johnson + prospects for an elite MLB 1st baseman with serious pop.

I doubt any of the prospects in the high minors (excluding Galarraga and Zimmerman who were just promoted) will ever play for the Nats, other than in a brief backup role. There just is not a lot of real talent there as what Minaya didn't trade away is already in the majors. Nats will use these guys as trading fodder and try to preserve the perceived real prospects lower down in the system.

I agree that Church may well go, tho if he does it will be for quality. Kind of ironic: if the team had stayed in Montreal he likely would have been installed everyday in the OF and could be putting up big numbers. Course in Montreal he might not be having his borderline ROY season (or ROY numbers anyway - not sure he has or will play enuff for ROY consideration).

I think if the Nats don't trade Wilkerson, Church is gone for sure. If they trade Wilkie however - and add an elite outfielder - its possible they might go with Church in 2006 if he continues to play like he has so far for the rest of the season.

A lot of this is because the 2006 FA crop is not that strong so Nats will have to rely on trades more than FA signings. Johnny Damon is kind of the most prized FA by default. Only real dark horse could be Nomar if he comes back like he's supposed to in August and looks to be like the Nomar of old. Other than that there will be some pretty good players but no real marquee guys.

The real interesting choice will be 3B. Seems clear that while Vinnie sure isn't finished, he doesn't seem able to play anywhere near 162 anymore effectively. Nats will be faced with 2 not very attractive possibilities: either trying to rush Zimmerman to the majors, have him split time with Vinnie in 2006 and hopefully take over by season end OR expending resources on a quality 3B and blocking Zimmerman's path to the majors (unles you could pick up a guy with 1 year left on his contract). I'm guessing working Zimmerman in over the season would be any GM's dream scenario but would be awful fast.

Offline Kenz aFan

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #13: July 20, 2005, 11:57:04 AM »
Quote from: "CoryFromTaylorsville"
Bowden has called Church the "next Jim Edmonds."  I don't think we'll be dealing Church for a Lugo or Baez.  If its for a player like Schmidt, maybe...

The reason or reasons a GM gives accolades about a certain players isn't always because it's what he thinks. Often times he says things like that to boost a player's value. The statement is also aimed at other GMs, not just the fans. Besides, it's just a different way of putting spin on something.

Offline Ryan Zimmerman

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #14: July 20, 2005, 01:37:05 PM »
Quote from: "Kenz aFan"
Quote from: "CoryFromTaylorsville"
Bowden has called Church the "next Jim Edmonds."  I don't think we'll be dealing Church for a Lugo or Baez.  If its for a player like Schmidt, maybe...

The reason or reasons a GM gives accolades about a certain players isn't always because it's what he thinks. Often times he says things like that to boost a player's value. The statement is also aimed at other GMs, not just the fans. Besides, it's just a different way of putting spin on something.


Kenza...peut tu me rendre service...j'ai besoin du lien ou ca dit que les nats sont une des equipe favorite pour Schmidt.Je crois que c'est un article sur sportingnews ou mlb.com

Offline Kenz aFan

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #15: July 20, 2005, 02:33:40 PM »
Je pense que cette les commentaires concernant les Nats comme ?quipe favorite pour jason Schmidt a ?t? fait par Peter Gammons sur ESPN radio

BigRChurchfan

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #16: July 20, 2005, 03:25:04 PM »
Quote from: "mar (AKA pasqual AKA JMG)"
The real interesting choice will be 3B. Seems clear that while Vinnie sure isn't finished, he doesn't seem able to play anywhere near 162 anymore effectively. Nats will be faced with 2 not very attractive possibilities: either trying to rush Zimmerman to the majors, have him split time with Vinnie in 2006 and hopefully take over by season end OR expending resources on a quality 3B and blocking Zimmerman's path to the majors (unles you could pick up a guy with 1 year left on his contract). I'm guessing working Zimmerman in over the season would be any GM's dream scenario but would be awful fast.[/quote


I dunno, he moved through Single A real fast, and last I checked, he was tearing up Double A as well.  You figure, he's got about 10 months...it wouldn't hurt to have him on the bench to spell Castilla every 3rd day, and then have him start in '07.  The kids from VA beach, which is where I go to school so I have high hopes.

Offline Kenz aFan

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #17: July 20, 2005, 04:35:13 PM »
Quote from: "BigRChurchfan"
I dunno, he moved through Single A real fast, and last I checked, he was tearing up Double A as well.  You figure, he's got about 10 months...it wouldn't hurt to have him on the bench to spell Castilla every 3rd day, and then have him start in '07.  The kids from VA beach, which is where I go to school so I have high hopes.

His short stint with Savannah was pretty much planned in advance. He was originally to start at Harrisburg, but they rethought things and sent him to Savannah because of the time off he had after playing with his college team. Made sense when you think about, a bit of A ball to get your timing and then on to AA to keep your defense honed and hit against better arms.

BTW, I would suggest you use the "Preview" button to see what your posts will look like. Sometimes when you miss a square bracket [ or ] it messes up the whole look of the message...

mar (AKA pasqual AKA JMG)

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Julio Lugo and Danys Baez
« Reply #18: July 20, 2005, 04:36:27 PM »
Quote from: "BigRChurchfan"


I dunno, he moved through Single A real fast, and last I checked, he was tearing up Double A as well.  You figure, he's got about 10 months...it wouldn't hurt to have him on the bench to spell Castilla every 3rd day, and then have him start in '07.  The kids from VA beach, which is where I go to school so I have high hopes.


Oh yeah. I think that's why he's warping thru the minors.

If I'm Bowden (or another GM) I would love to be able to go with Vinnie/Ryan at 3B and have Zimmerman ready to be a legit starting 3B by April 2007.

I think if Bowden stays, this is what'll happen as he has a history of believing MLB playing time is just the thing to get a young player ready quick (look at the age of some of the guys Reds played when he was there - babies).

Another GM might be more of the "seasoning in the minors" school of thought.