Author Topic: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2  (Read 5831 times)

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Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #25: May 11, 2010, 04:34:17 PM »
Morgan is a disaster vs. LHP

The only way he's going to learn is by facing them and he's going to be here long enough that it's worth giving him the at bats to learn.

Also, is there really that much difference between Bernadina and Willy?

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #26: May 11, 2010, 04:34:22 PM »
Few things:

1) Bernadina continues to fail so they have to try someone else out there.  I don't have a lot of faith in Taveras either, but I don't question the switch.  Maybe this is his last chance? 

2) GMU - Kennedy is better than Guzman.

3) We win tonight 4-2.

Of course Kennedy is better than Guzman, but he is not better vs. LHP than Guzman. That is the whole point of my proposed lineup. Here would be my lineup vs. RHP:

Morgan CF
Zim 3B
Dunn 1B
Willingham LF
Pudge C
Harris RF
Kennedy 2B
Desmond SS
Pitcher

That would increase our odds of winning.

Offline blue911

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #27: May 11, 2010, 04:36:06 PM »
The only way he's going to learn is by facing them and he's going to be here long enough that it's worth giving him the at bats to learn.

Also, is there really that much difference between Bernadina and Willy?

Willy is a better defender. Mike Morse please get better fast.

Offline Salamander Man

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #28: May 11, 2010, 04:47:41 PM »
Lineup tool says the lineup tonight should be:  (based on career vs. lefties)

Hammer
Zimmerman
Taveras
Desmond
Pudge
Guzman
Dunn
Olsen
Morgan

And that lineup should score 4.898 runs vs. lefties.

Offline CJames0569

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #29: May 11, 2010, 04:49:45 PM »
Lineup tool says the lineup tonight should be:  (based on career vs. lefties)

Hammer
Zimmerman
Taveras
Desmond
Pudge
Guzman
Dunn
Olsen
Morgan

And that lineup should score 4.898 runs vs. lefties.

Your tool is broken Salamander, for some reason it put Taveras in the 3 hole.

Offline Salamander Man

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #30: May 11, 2010, 04:52:32 PM »
The Third Spot
The old-school book says to put your best high-average hitter here.  The lead-off hitter should already be in scoring position and a hit drives him in.  Wham, bam, thank you ma'am.

The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters.  So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more?  Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think.  This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of.

Offline Evolution33

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #31: May 11, 2010, 04:53:17 PM »
Your tool is broken Salamander, for some reason it put Taveras in the 3 hole.

After the Royals fire Hillman the owners will get extra cheap and hire a line-up generator.

Offline Salamander Man

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #32: May 11, 2010, 04:55:01 PM »
I'm not advocating it, just posting the numbers.  I think it's pretty funny, actually.

Offline CJames0569

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #33: May 11, 2010, 04:57:15 PM »
The Third Spot
The old-school book says to put your best high-average hitter here.  The lead-off hitter should already be in scoring position and a hit drives him in.  Wham, bam, thank you ma'am.

The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters.  So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more?  Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think.  This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of.


I know what the book says, but no sane person can be convinced that Willy Taveras and his .263 average vs LHP should be hitting in the 3 spot. Clearly there is some majorly flawed logic in there somewhere.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #34: May 11, 2010, 05:26:31 PM »
Lineup tool says the lineup tonight should be:  (based on career vs. lefties)

Hammer
Zimmerman
Taveras
Desmond
Pudge
Guzman
Dunn
Olsen
Morgan

And that lineup should score 4.898 runs vs. lefties.

Man, that would suck if we lost the game by the score of 5-4.898.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #35: May 11, 2010, 05:27:10 PM »
I know what the book says, but no sane person can be convinced that Willy Taveras and his .263 average vs LHP should be hitting in the 3 spot. Clearly there is some majorly flawed logic in there somewhere.
It's not logic. It's a statistical model.  GIGO.  I've played with a line up tool, too, from Baseball Musings.  Unless the one Sal is using is different, it only looks at OBP and SLG.  Does not account for base running.  Also, career averages may be worse than a good projection system. I care less about Pudge's power in the 1990s now that he is has changed his batting style to emphasize contact.  Similarly, I don't care about what Guz did against LHP before his Lasik surgery.  Kind of GMU's point about why Guz is in rather than Kennedy.  Finally, I never thought of Dunn as having bad platoon splits. I can't figure how he ended up 7th.

Offline EdStroud

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #36: May 11, 2010, 05:42:54 PM »
New York Mets designated 1B Frank Catalanotto for assignment today.  Batista sends Catalanotto packing!

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #37: May 11, 2010, 05:59:53 PM »
New York Mets designated 1B Frank Catalanotto for assignment today.  Batista sends Catalanotto packing!

A) great avatar
B) But, but he was their big FA signing!

Offline bklynnats

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #38: May 11, 2010, 06:02:38 PM »
Time Warner guy activated my cable in the new apartment, so I can finally watch baseball again!! :woop: :cheers: :woop:

So if we lose tonight, you can blame me  :-[

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #39: May 11, 2010, 06:08:06 PM »
Go Nats!

Offline Neuman

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #40: May 11, 2010, 06:20:36 PM »
I will agree that Taveras being in the starting lineup is embarrassing though.

Anyone is right now, though.  Just saw this stat from Bill Ladson - "RFs are hitting a combined .159 with four HRs and 15 RBIs"  Ouch.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #41: May 11, 2010, 06:37:48 PM »
Anyone is right now, though.  Just saw this stat from Bill Ladson - "RFs are hitting a combined .159 with four HRs and 15 RBIs"  Ouch.

Better watch out.  JCA will be along shortly to tell you how good the Harris/Maxwell platoon was.  And he's right.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #42: May 11, 2010, 06:43:31 PM »
If only Harris and Morse platoon was given an opportunity to work. For some reason, I don't think that Morse will get much of an opportunity this year.

Online KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #43: May 11, 2010, 06:44:01 PM »
Time Warner guy activated my cable in the new apartment, so I can finally watch baseball again!! :woop: :cheers: :woop:

So if we lose tonight, you can blame me  :-[

nice :clap:

Do you get MASN or are you stuck with the SNY feed (in which case, bless your poor soul)?

Offline JMW IV

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #44: May 11, 2010, 06:59:43 PM »
every Will that has a Y instead of an E at the end of their name sucks ass, as far as I can tell. thought Rizzo would have picked up on that.

Wily, Willy = SUCKASS

Willie =

Offline Neuman

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #45: May 11, 2010, 07:02:29 PM »
Better watch out.  JCA will be along shortly to tell you how good the Harris/Maxwell platoon was.  And he's right.

And I agree with him. I know Max was sent down b/c of a rash of lefty starters, but I am not sure what Rig is waiting for on Bernadina.  Harris is not great, but a better option against righties.

Offline Neuman

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #46: May 11, 2010, 07:03:44 PM »
The bigger issue is the fact Rig can't pick a platoon.  I still prefer Harris as a utlity guy, but i think one of the biggest problems in right is that it is a revolving door.  If he had two guys who played 3 times a week each, some stability could develop

Offline Neuman

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #47: May 11, 2010, 07:05:09 PM »
My preview is up as well - topics include Olsen's scoreless streak, and why Zim and the Hammer should be excited to face Niese:

http://tinyurl.com/2bc5elf

Offline spidernat

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #48: May 11, 2010, 07:08:24 PM »
And I agree with him. I know Max was sent down b/c of a rash of lefty starters, but I am not sure what Rig is waiting for on Bernadina.  Harris is not great, but a better option against righties.

They probably want to give him a long look so that it will never be said that he was not given a fair shot. This way, if he fails completely, they can move on to other options and know for certain that he isn't the answer. That's all I can think of.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 2
« Reply #49: May 11, 2010, 07:12:30 PM »
this guy blows ... let's tattoo this loser