Author Topic: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1  (Read 5994 times)

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Online DPMOmaha

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #25: May 04, 2010, 12:48:39 PM »
On any given day, anything can happen
(gosh that sounds down right mathematical, don't it?)
I don't know, I failed math...yet I work in an accounting office.

Offline Evolution33

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #26: May 04, 2010, 12:58:42 PM »
Which game does Guzman start in this series? Tomorrow or Thursday?

I would hope Thursday since Hanson is prone to throwing too many pitches and has only gone deep in one game which was against the Astros and he pitched 8 innings. So far he has pitched 29 innings in 5 starts are about 5.8 innings a start. If you discount the Astros game it comes down to 5.25 innings in the other 4 starts. Our players average about 4 pitches per plate appearance. Which means we would need 25 batters to get him out of the game if it goes by that average but I would say we should raise it to 4.5 since Hanson likes to miss bats so I think we should be able lower that number by two or three batters. If we can get a couple guys on and make him work for every out we should be able to get him out of the game using 15-18 outs to do it. Or 5-6 innings which would leave us a couple innings to go after the Braves bullpen. Guzman starting tomorrow ruins this plan as he is likely to not get deep into the count and help Hanson go deeper into the game giving us less time against the bullpen to make our comeback.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #27: May 04, 2010, 01:03:13 PM »
I'm a huge fan of Livo regardless, but even I keep expecting the bubble to burst.  Still, it would be sweet as hell if he finished the season with an ERA under 4 just so I could watch all the Livo-hating statheads come up with progressively more ridiculous excuses :twisted:

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #28: May 04, 2010, 01:17:12 PM »
I would hope Thursday since Hanson is prone to throwing too many pitches and has only gone deep in one game which was against the Astros and he pitched 8 innings. So far he has pitched 29 innings in 5 starts are about 5.8 innings a start. If you discount the Astros game it comes down to 5.25 innings in the other 4 starts. Our players average about 4 pitches per plate appearance. Which means we would need 25 batters to get him out of the game if it goes by that average but I would say we should raise it to 4.5 since Hanson likes to miss bats so I think we should be able lower that number by two or three batters. If we can get a couple guys on and make him work for every out we should be able to get him out of the game using 15-18 outs to do it. Or 5-6 innings which would leave us a couple innings to go after the Braves bullpen. Guzman starting tomorrow ruins this plan as he is likely to not get deep into the count and help Hanson go deeper into the game giving us less time against the bullpen to make our comeback.

It may come to a surprise to some... but ever since Desmond said he admired Guzman's approach at the plate... I've been tracking their pitches per at-bat.

Pudge is the worst only seeing 3.38 pitches per at-bat.
Guzman is second worst at 3.61
Desmond follows at 3.70

I'd love if Desmond followed Nyjer's approach (4.00) compared to Guzman... but what are you going to do? It's not like we have any say over that.

League average is 3.87 btw.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #29: May 04, 2010, 01:32:55 PM »
It may come to a surprise to some... but ever since Desmond said he admired Guzman's approach at the plate... I've been tracking their pitches per at-bat.

Pudge is the worst only seeing 3.38 pitches per at-bat.
Guzman is second worst at 3.61
Desmond follows at 3.70

I'd love if Desmond followed Nyjer's approach (4.00) compared to Guzman... but what are you going to do? It's not like we have any say over that.

League average is 3.87 btw.

I thought if I looked up the average for qualified rookies, Desmond would be closer to that average, but that was not the case.  Amongst qualified MLB rookies, Desmond had the lowest Pitches/PA (Heyward the highest at 4.46).  Not very reliable information, as there are only 6 qualified rookie hitters in the ML right now, but when I changed the minimum PA to 25 there were 23 rookies that qualified.  Only Jason Jaso, Mike McCoy, and Brennan Boesch saw less pitches per PA, but Justin Maxwell was #3 with 4.35 P/PA.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #30: May 04, 2010, 01:34:44 PM »
I'm surprised by Jaso. He's always been a huge OBP guy in the minors... and he has like a 9/3 BB/K rate in the pros so far.

Offline Evolution33

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #31: May 04, 2010, 01:36:40 PM »
It may come to a surprise to some... but ever since Desmond said he admired Guzman's approach at the plate... I've been tracking their pitches per at-bat.

Pudge is the worst only seeing 3.38 pitches per at-bat.
Guzman is second worst at 3.61
Desmond follows at 3.70

I'd love if Desmond followed Nyjer's approach (4.00) compared to Guzman... but what are you going to do? It's not like we have any say over that.

League average is 3.87 btw.

Things in sports often move in cycles. Right now patients and walks and OBP are so highly valued. I have watched a bunch of games this season and not just the Nationals game and I have noticed that pitchers have become robotic in some counts. They get to 0-2 and then throw 2 to 3 pitches out fo the strike zone and the batter stands there with no intention to swing because they know it is coming. It is ingrained in everyones head that the most valuable pitch is strike one. Getting ahead in the count is very important but knowing that a strike is coming on the first pitch I am betting some radical coach is going to start coach his players to be more agressive at the plate. Not agressive in being stupid and swinging at junk but I think pitchers are becoming very pratictable and a good hitting coach can regonize trends. I have noticed some of our hitters watching a first or second pitch right down the pipe for no other reason than to take a pitch. If in theory a hitter does see one good pitch per at bat then when they see a good pitch to hit they should hit it no matter if it is the first pitch or the seventh pitch.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #32: May 04, 2010, 01:37:16 PM »
When I last checked Desmond's numbers a few weeks ago, he had a real high Pitches/PA. It's disappointing that he is now pretty much turning into a hacker. Brilliant idea to listen to the worst hitter on your team!

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #33: May 04, 2010, 01:40:10 PM »
I am betting some radical coach is going to start coach his players to be more agressive at the plate. Not agressive in being stupid and swinging at junk but I think pitchers are becoming very pratictable and a good hitting coach can regonize trends. I have noticed some of our hitters watching a first or second pitch right down the pipe for no other reason than to take a pitch. If in theory a hitter does see one good pitch per at bat then when they see a good pitch to hit they should hit it no matter if it is the first pitch or the seventh pitch.

I agree, you also have to remember that Eckstein preaches a player to do what is most comfortable to them, which for some players will not always be the patient approach.  Over the course of the season, I think P/PA gives you a good idea of how patient vs aggressive a player is at the plate, but it does not necessarily indicate a good batting eye.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #34: May 04, 2010, 01:48:55 PM »
Things in sports often move in cycles. Right now patients and walks and OBP are so highly valued. I have watched a bunch of games this season and not just the Nationals game and I have noticed that pitchers have become robotic in some counts. They get to 0-2 and then throw 2 to 3 pitches out fo the strike zone and the batter stands there with no intention to swing because they know it is coming. It is ingrained in everyones head that the most valuable pitch is strike one. Getting ahead in the count is very important but knowing that a strike is coming on the first pitch I am betting some radical coach is going to start coach his players to be more agressive at the plate. Not agressive in being stupid and swinging at junk but I think pitchers are becoming very pratictable and a good hitting coach can regonize trends. I have noticed some of our hitters watching a first or second pitch right down the pipe for no other reason than to take a pitch. If in theory a hitter does see one good pitch per at bat then when they see a good pitch to hit they should hit it no matter if it is the first pitch or the seventh pitch.

Interesting theory!

I just ran some numbers on your theory and maybe you're on to something!

Top 3 teams in terms of swinging at the first pitch

AL

Toronto
Tampa Bay
Texas

Runs per game scored in the AL

1. Tampa Bay
6. Toronto
7. Texas

It doesn't hold water in the NL... but maybe you're on to something if you can refine the theory a bit!

Offline Evolution33

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #35: May 04, 2010, 02:01:09 PM »
Interesting theory!

I just ran some numbers on your theory and maybe you're on to something!

Top 3 teams in terms of swinging at the first pitch

AL

Toronto
Tampa Bay
Texas

Runs per game scored in the AL

1. Tampa Bay
6. Toronto
7. Texas

It doesn't hold water in the NL... but maybe you're on to something if you can refine the theory a bit!


I heard a theory one time and I don't know if it is really true or not that teams in the AL are quicker to change due to having to find interesting ways to keep up with the Yankees and Red Sox. So AL hitting coaches might have adapted to the fact that pitchers are now basically robots throwing certain pitches in certian counts for strikes or balls the coaches in the NL might not have caught on since there is more competitive balance.

I had a Poli Sci professor that always said, "History may be writen by the winners, but it is made by the losers." Basically that the people that are losing now are going to figure out a way to win.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #36: May 04, 2010, 02:13:49 PM »
I heard a theory one time and I don't know if it is really true or not that teams in the AL are quicker to change due to having to find interesting ways to keep up with the Yankees and Red Sox. So AL hitting coaches might have adapted to the fact that pitchers are now basically robots throwing certain pitches in certian counts for strikes or balls the coaches in the NL might not have caught on since there is more competitive balance.

It may also have to do with what pitch is being thrown first. In the AL they may be throwing get ahead fastballs... while in the NL they might try to work in an offspeed pitch.

8 out of the top 10 teams in terms of fastball % thrown a game are AL teams... including the Top 4.

The top 11 teams in terms of slider % thrown a game are all NL teams.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #37: May 04, 2010, 02:15:27 PM »
8 out of the top 10 teams in terms of fastball % thrown a game are AL teams... including the Top 4.



I wonder if the DH has something to do with that? AL teams thowing more fastballs (more likely to be a strike) to conserve pitches knowing they don't have an easy out every 9 batters?

Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #38: May 04, 2010, 02:20:37 PM »
Wasn't it Kenshin Kawakami last year who "guaranteed" he'd go like 15-0 on the season and guaranteed one game to beat the Nats (which, if this is the guy I remember, he didn't)?

If so, light his dumb ass up!

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #39: May 04, 2010, 02:22:36 PM »
I thought Kawakami guaranteed that he'd win 30 games or something insane like that?

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #40: May 04, 2010, 02:23:21 PM »
I thought Kawakami guaranteed that he'd win 30 games or something insane like that?

In his career?

Offline Evolution33

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #41: May 04, 2010, 02:24:19 PM »
Wasn't it Kenshin Kawakami last year who "guaranteed" he'd go like 15-0 on the season and guaranteed one game to beat the Nats (which, if this is the guy I remember, he didn't)?

If so, light his dumb ass up!

He said he would go 22-1 and I was in Atlanta for that game and I think he beat us. I know Atlanta did as we got swept in that series which was part of our 7 game losing streak to begin the season.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #42: May 04, 2010, 02:25:02 PM »
In his career?

:funny:

I can't find anything on Google about such promises, but I only tried a handful of queries.

Offline Evolution33

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #43: May 04, 2010, 02:26:06 PM »
He said he would go 22-1 and I was in Atlanta for that game and I think he beat us. I know Atlanta did as we got swept in that series which was part of our 7 game losing streak to begin the season.


http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2009.shtml

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #44: May 04, 2010, 02:26:49 PM »
It may also have to do with what pitch is being thrown first. In the AL they may be throwing get ahead fastballs... while in the NL they might try to work in an offspeed pitch.

8 out of the top 10 teams in terms of fastball % thrown a game are AL teams... including the Top 4.

The top 11 teams in terms of slider % thrown a game are all NL teams.


I thought the NL was supposed to be a fastball league while the AL was a breaking ball league.

Offline Evolution33

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #45: May 04, 2010, 02:27:02 PM »
:funny:

I can't find anything on Google about such promises, but I only tried a handful of queries.

Sportsfan posted it on this message board the day of that game. I rememer reading it on my phone before that game and feeling supremely confident.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #46: May 04, 2010, 02:28:57 PM »
I thought the NL was supposed to be a fastball league while the AL was a breaking ball league.

I usually think of AL as power pitching and NL as junk ballers (always expecptions Halladay Lincecum, and Wakefield come to mind)

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #47: May 04, 2010, 02:44:09 PM »
I thought the NL was supposed to be a fastball league while the AL was a breaking ball league.

Maybe its a reversal of recent thinking?

Offline tomterp

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #48: May 04, 2010, 02:51:08 PM »
I thought the NL was supposed to be a fastball league while the AL was a breaking ball league.

I'm thinking old wives tale.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 1
« Reply #49: May 04, 2010, 02:53:41 PM »
Guzman is starting and hitting second against a RHP.

I guess they seem to think his .224 OBP will serve the heart of the order well.

Not that Kennedy's .234 is much better... but his .180 BABIP makes me believe he's hitting into some bad luck. Guzman is posting a .224 with a .270 BABIP. Ouch.