Poll

Who should start in RF?

Justin Maxwell
6 (17.1%)
Mike Morse
4 (11.4%)
Willie Harris
17 (48.6%)
Free Agent (Jermaine Dye, etc)
2 (5.7%)
Other (Bernadina, Tavarez, etc)
6 (17.1%)

Total Members Voted: 35

Author Topic: Who should start in RF?  (Read 2007 times)

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Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #25: March 23, 2010, 05:27:13 PM »
I voted for Willie Harris.

J-Max has been given a chance this spring but has not taken it and run with it.  Bernadina and Tavarez, in my mind, are not everyday outfielders; albiet a rightfielder.  Morse is probably best used when coming off the bench for multiple positions (RF, 1B, etc).

Bringing in Jermaine Dye wouldn't be the end of the world, but I wouldn't mind a Morse/Harris platoon (unless Maxwell/Bernadina/Tavarez steps up and proves they belong there).

Offline Nathan

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #26: March 23, 2010, 05:27:15 PM »
Maxwell has had chance after chance and he hasn't done crap.

He has been given plenty of ABs this Spring (2nd most on the team). But with those ABs he has gone 4/39 (.103) with 15 Ks.
Spring training numbers are supposed to be worthless, but still that is pretty crappy.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #27: March 23, 2010, 05:34:02 PM »
Bringing in Jermaine Dye wouldn't be the end of the world, but I wouldn't mind a Morse/Harris platoon (unless Maxwell/Bernadina/Tavarez steps up and proves they belong there).

Dye would be bad for multiple reasons. One, he stopped hitting last year and two, his defense his been really bad the last few years.

I also don't think he'd bring in any prospects on the trade market.

Probably best to just avoid him.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #28: March 23, 2010, 05:34:54 PM »
Milledge had upside, Dukes had upside, Alex Escobar had upside, Ryan Church had upside, Austin Kearns had upside, and the list goes on.

Some real production outside of a couple of Septembers would be nice.

I'm with Knorr on this one.  I like Maxwell, but if my life were on the line, I'd bet against him ever amounting to much.

I like Maxwell because ... I think he makes an intriguing platoon partner to Harris.

I've had enough intrigue.  At this point I'll settle for just north of competent.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #29: March 23, 2010, 05:36:45 PM »
Maxwell looked pretty overmatched last week in the games I saw him. Swung all the time, struck out a lot, rarely had a hit. Played great defense though.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #30: March 23, 2010, 05:38:53 PM »
Btw, I'd much rather have Dye than ever seeing Taveras out there. What a disaster that would be.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #31: March 23, 2010, 05:41:29 PM »
Spring training numbers are supposed to be worthless, but still that is pretty crappy.

ASSCLOWN left out his good BB numbers, because frankly, he is an ASSCLOWN.

If you've seen Maxwell play, and play well, it is very impressive. He is FAST, he has power potential, and he's a good fielder.

Offline blue911

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #32: March 23, 2010, 05:42:47 PM »
Now Blue is scared because the stats back up his instinct  :icon_mrgreen:


I ain't feared of nothin.   
I'm Nervous

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #33: March 23, 2010, 06:09:50 PM »
Maxwell hasn't done anything to prove that he would be a good solution in RF.  Not in spring training this year, not in AAA last year.  Bernadina had a huge year in 2008 at AA and AAA, plus he was starting to show some promise in his most recent (albeit brief) MLB at-bats.  He has refined his swing twice in the past two years, shortening it in order to become a better contact hitter and while I think he may eventually be a good option, let him start the year at AAA and work himself back into a groove

I don't see Morse as an everyday player and Willie Harris is probably the best available option at the moment, but Morse has a good bat and can hit lefties.  Harris has good defense and can be serviceable against righties.  A platoon of the two does not sound like a bad idea for now.  It is all good to let the young guys try to battle their way onto the team, but if none of them show up I would be greatly disappointed if the RF situation stays as it is for the entire season.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #34: March 23, 2010, 06:23:58 PM »
Willie has a sub-800 career OPS. I don't see him as an everyday player either. I like Morse on the bench and an everyday RF.

Offline Nathan

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #35: March 23, 2010, 06:32:07 PM »
Willie has a sub-800 career OPS. I don't see him as an everyday player either. I like Morse on the bench and an everyday RF.
So does Maxwell.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #36: March 23, 2010, 06:34:26 PM »
I don't think anyone's suggesting that Harris is a solution, but he should be perfectly acceptable for this season platooning with whoever (whomever? :tomterp: )

Online DPMOmaha

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #37: March 23, 2010, 07:12:19 PM »
Here are Dye's stats vs. those of JMax/Harris/Tavaras/Morse from last year.  Take into consideration, this quartet has about 400 more AB's than Dye.  I didn't show the defensive stats, they're all fairly average, though Harris is the best of the bunch.  I did find it interesting to note that Morse has never committed an error in the outfield in 28 career games.

Player    R     H     2B     HR     RBI     SB     CS     BB     SO     BA     OBP     SLG     OPS     OPS+     
Others   120   208 36     15      61      42    11        90   168   0.243   0.318   0.402   0.720   359   
Dye       78   126   19    27       81       0     2        64     108   0.250   0.340   0.453   0.793   103   

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #38: March 23, 2010, 07:43:03 PM »
So does Maxwell.

Does anyone believe that Harris will develop further as a player?

Offline Nathan

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #39: March 23, 2010, 07:43:44 PM »
Does anyone believe that Harris will develop further as a player?
Yes.  He can do anything.  He is.... WOOLY HARRIS!!!!!!!!

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #40: March 23, 2010, 07:49:58 PM »
Does anyone believe that Harris will develop further as a player?

no, but I have my doubts about a lot of our corner guys

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #41: March 23, 2010, 08:02:08 PM »
DPM - that is too much aggregation to be a meaningful way of comparing the options.  Tavares would drag down any grouping in terms of any stat except SBs. 

How much of a better hitter was Dye than Willie vs. RHP last year? 
373 PAs, .236 / .323 / .434, 20 Hr, .332 wOBA. 

Willie was .040 better in OBP at the expense of .020 in SLG. The home runs look pretty, but Willie's 2b (15) and 3B (6) almost completely make up the power difference (Dye's 12 and 1).  I'll go further and say that taking Dye out of the Cell (or whatever they call it now) would likely depress his homers, too, so I don't think his SLG advantage would hold up.  In fairness, his '08 splits were terrific, but '07 stunk, too.

All of this is without discussing defense.  Dye is Dunn's chief competitor for worst outfielder the past 5 years, at least by UZR.  A 20 run difference between Harris and Dye on defense would be in line with what most Fans project.

I just do not see Dye playing ahead of Willie against RHP, which is what you see most of the time.

Harris v RHP;  LHP
2009 (348 PA) .248/.365/.414, 7 HR, .347 wOBA; ( 45 PA) .121/.356/.212, 0 HR, .293 wOBA
2008 (311 PA) .255/.351/.404, 8 HR, .334 wOBA; (113 PA) .240/.327/.450, 5 HR, .341 wOBA
2007 (335 PA) .283/.358/.418, 2 HR, .342 wOBA; ( 56 PA)  .191/.291/.234, 0 HR, .250 wOBA

Against LHP, his time would come at the expense of Morse or J-Max.  I'm not going to argue he is not still a great hitter against LHP.  Conceivably, if you were to send Desmond down or release Guzman, there may be room on the roster for about 200 AB on the short side of a RF platoon, 1B backup (he says he's willing), and PH in the NL.  That's figuring Bruntlett as your MI backup, 3 backup OFs (Dye, Morse, and a CF), and using Harris, Morse, and Dye in the infield as needed. 

Online DPMOmaha

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #42: March 23, 2010, 08:17:42 PM »
DPM - that is too much aggregation to be a meaningful way of comparing the options.  Tavares would drag down any grouping in terms of any stat except SBs.  
I was just trying to throw out what looked like an interesting comparison.  A lot of the stat stuff most on here are more proficient than I am.  But even if you take out Tavaras, Dye still brings more to the plate, no pun intended, than any platoon we could put out there.

You're going to have to point out where Dye rivals Dunn to me, because when I take a look at the stats, Dye looks to be considerably better defensively.

I'm not saying we should go out and spend 6.5-8 mil on Dye, I'm really not.  But I think if you put him in this lineup in the 6 hole behind Hammer with Desmond or Kennedy behind him, he could have a nice year.  Then ramp up for Werth or Crawford next year.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #43: March 23, 2010, 08:18:46 PM »
Does anyone believe that Harris will develop further as a player?

Apparently, one of his former teammates does.  From the MLB board posted yesterday, by hsanders23:

Quote
Let me first say I played ball with Willie all my baseball career. He is something special when it comes to being an athlete. He can play any position and he can play left field with his eyes closed. I guarantee if he gets to start and play consistent he will be in the top three in obp and batting average and have very few errors all year. He is a very smart player and is very athletic to go with it. And for some who dont know his history, he had a full scholarship to FSU as wide reciever in football and could have went to college palying basketball as well. I really believe the nats are gonna improve this season over last big time.I look forward to sharing this message board and watching the nats win with you guys this year!

Offline tomterp

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #44: March 23, 2010, 08:20:58 PM »
I don't think anyone's suggesting that Harris is a solution, but he should be perfectly acceptable for this season platooning with whoever (whomever? :tomterp: )

Too bad J-Max is slumping badly.  He needs to figure it out in Syracuse.  I'd go with Morse.  Willie would start 2/3 of the games, Morse the other 1/3, and both would also pick up substantial playing time as backups for other guys.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #45: March 23, 2010, 08:21:17 PM »
Apparently, one of his purported former teammates does.  From the MLB board posted yesterday, by hsanders23:


I'm glad he's rooting for his pal, but he's a great utility guy that doesn't hit will enough to play outfield every day, or field well enough to play infield every day.

I'd love to be wrong about this.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #46: March 23, 2010, 08:23:11 PM »
Instead of wasting my time typing essentially the same thing, I will repost this excerpt from a fangraphs article written in February:

Quote
Grammarians claim that the most important aspect of a sentence should appear at the end. Consistent with this, the most important point about Dye rounds out this list. His defense isn’t just bad. Bad is Bobby Abreu. Bad is Michael Cuddyer. Jermaine Dye stands with rare company over the past four years, posting a UZR/150 of worse than -20 each year. If Johnny Damon is having trouble finding work because of one poor defensive season in the outfield, it’s tough to imagine Dye getting any serious offers, especially from an NL team.

Looking at the past three years of UZR data, only Brad Hawpe ranks worse than Dye in terms of UZR and UZR/150 among right fielders with more than 2,800 innings at the position. The next worse, Cuddyer, is far out ahead at -13 UZR/150, to Dye’s -22.4. Dye says he’s willing to play left field, but that should only further deter clubs from signing him. Given that Dye’s futility covers four years — he was at -21.5 UZR/150 in 2006 — there is no reason why any team should sign him with the thought of giving him even one inning in the outfield.


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/four-reasons-teams-are-staying-away-from-jermaine-dye/

Offline tomterp

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #47: March 23, 2010, 08:23:16 PM »
I'm glad he's rooting for his pal, but he's a great utility guy that doesn't hit will enough to play outfield every day, or field well enough to play infield every day.

I agree with you, but just saying that here's one probably informed opinion that says that with everyday reps, Willie would step it up a notch.  I wouldn't bank on it, just saying....

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #48: March 23, 2010, 08:28:19 PM »
I agree with you, but just saying that here's one probably informed opinion that says that with everyday reps, Willie would step it up a notch.  I wouldn't bank on it, just saying....
Informed?  More like biased.  You expect someone who was chummy with Willie and played ball with him to give an objective coach's/manager's type of opinion?  I could play ball with Pete Orr and he'd probably look like an MVP candidate to me, but that doesn't mean he is.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Who should start in RF?
« Reply #49: March 23, 2010, 08:34:04 PM »
Fangraphs on why teams are sticking away from Dye as of 2/11/10:
[see JMU's quote above]

The 3 worst defensive OFs over the past 3 years, by UZR, are Hawpe (-82.1), Dunn (-66.9), and Dye (-61).  There is about a 20 run gap to Bay and a slew of others.

(by the way, I am not using UZR/150, which has things a bit closer - same order - -33, -28, -22, then a gap to -16 for little Sarge and Manny).