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The Nationals' draft plot thickensFor a while now, I've harbored a deep suspicion the Nationals would ultimately use their No. 1 overall draft pick this June on someone other than 17-year-old catcher Bryce Harper. It was an educated hunch, based on a few facts:1. Multiple scouts have told me he had not separated himself from the rest of the elite class of No. 1 contenders, the way Stephen Strasburg did a year ago.2. Some scouts have said they don't project Harper as a catcher, long-term.3. Harper is being advised by Scott Boras, and has more negotiating leverage than Strasburg did a year ago, since Harper has the option of going back into the draft up to three more times if he doesn't reach a deal with the team that picks him.4. I read this feature on Harper, who temporarily ended his media blackout to tell the Las Vegas Review-Journal that, at one point earlier this year, he was "second-guessing" his decision to speed up his draft timetable by taking the GED and starting his college career early. Normally, I would applaud such honesty and defend Harper to anyone who wanted to question his "makeup" based on that quote. But when we're talking about $10 million-$20 million at stake, I'd say those questions are fair.5. The Nationals aren't rich in position-player prospects, but they do have a catcher-of-the-future in Derek Norris, widely regarded as one of the top catching prospects in baseball.6. If the Nationals truly believe they can contend in 2011, as it appears they do, it would make sense to take a more advanced, older prospect, particularly a pitcher.So if not Harper, then whom? As of a couple of weeks ago, my money would have been on LSU right-hander Anthony Ranaudo -- but that was before Ranaudo was sidelined with elbow soreness that still has not subsided. If Ranaudo returns healthy and effective, he could come back into the No. 1 picture, but teams are understandably wary of elbow injuries when it comes to first-round picks, let alone overall No. 1s. (Little-known fact: As a high schooler out of Connecticut, Ranaudo was picked in the 11th round of the 2007 draft by the Texas Rangers, whose east coast crosschecker -- and a guy who pushed for the Rangers to pick Ranaudo -- was Doug Harris, now the Nationals' director of player development.)One other drawback regarding Ranaudo: He's also being advised by Boras.Beyond Ranaudo, the top draft-eliglble pitching prospect is said to be Texas high schooler Jameson Taillon. Two problems there: No high school right-hander has ever been taken with the first overall pick. And Taillon is being advised by the Hendricks brothers, who were responsible for the Aaron Crow fiasco in 2008.Meanwhile, the next-best collegiate pitching prospect is said to be Georgia Tech righty Deck McGuire, who, aside from having a great baseball name, also owns a 2-0 record, 0.82 ERA and 25-to-3 ratio of strikeouts to walks this season.On the other hand, to bring this post full-circle, perhaps we're guilty of trying to outthink ourselves here. Perhaps the answer is staring us in the face. Here is Harper's stat line through his first 20 games at the College of Southern Nevada: .408 ave., 6 HR, 20 RBI, .500 OBP, .831 SLG. (And that's with a wooden bat, mind you.)Oh, and Harper has also been playing some center field -- which, we're fairly certain, the Nationals' scouting department is well aware of.It's gotta be Harper.But check back with me in a couple of weeks.
"6. If the Nationals truly believe they can contend in 2011, as it appears they do, it would make sense to take a more advanced, older prospect, particularly a pitcher."Please don't do this. This is 100X more dumb than anything Jim Bowden did.
QFT. The "we already have a catcher" argument is terrible.
Here is the start of the third installment of my mock draft series. The first round starts today, followed by the following rounds beginning tomorrow.1. Washington Nationals – Bryce Harper, C, CC of Southern Nevada – This is increasingly becoming a no-brainer as Harper puts his tools into action on the field. The cost for Harper might be becoming increasingly expensive, but there would be no excuse for passing over what I consider the top talent in the draft by a solid margin. Previously: #1.2. Pittsburgh Pirates – Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech – I know this one will bring plenty of wailing from the Pittsburgh community, but I simply don’t see any connection between the Pirates and Jameson Taillon. With Anthony Ranaudo out right now, McGuire has stepped up to become the best draft-eligible college pitcher in the country, and he offers solid stuff with some projection remaining. Previously: #10.3. Baltimore Orioles – Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS (TX) – If Taillon does fall into the laps of the Orioles, this will be another no-brainer type of selection. There was a little bit of worry a couple of weeks ago when Taillon’s velocity dipped a bit in a start, but it was back up in his most recent start. Cost is the big factor here, considering Taillon might be the most expensive prep arm ever. Previously: #3.4. Kansas City Royals – Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Ole Miss – I have just been extremely impressed with Pomeranz this spring, as he’s really taken another step forward. There are still some slight concerns about his motion, but with #2 potential from the left side, it will be hard seeing him drop out of the top ten if he’s healthy and dealing. Previously: #16.5. Cleveland Indians – Chris Sale, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast – Right behind Pomeranz is Sale, especially since Sale is considered the more signable of the two. The much-anticipated matchup of Sale and the U. of Miami hitters in a midweek game was rained out, but Sale has flat-out dominated the competition so far, though that’s to be expected. Previously: #12.
agreed, this is baseball, not football, you pick the best guy available regardless of where he plays.
Will Gerritt Cole be available this year or will he be in the '11 draft?
In 2011, I'd like to see them draft Rice product Anthony Rendon.
I'd like to see Jameson Taillon give Rice the shaft.
Unless the Orioles draft him. In that case I would be more than happy to see him attend Rice in the fall.
