Author Topic: Hope for Chris Marrero  (Read 2360 times)

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Offline GMUNat

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Hope for Chris Marrero
« Topic Start: February 12, 2010, 01:40:02 PM »
In this article I wrote about Chris Marrero, I brought the possibility that he could become the next Adrian Gonzalez

Excerpt:
Quote
Introduction
Nationals 1B Chris Marrero is one of Washington’s top prospects. The 21-year-old from Miami was drafted 15th in the 2006 MLB Draft. He was ranked 6th in the Nationals farm system this past offseason according to Baseball America. To see if Marrero will become a star in the big leagues, we need to first compare him to the 1B in the big leagues to see if he compares favorably to their numbers in the minors.

Comparison #1
Here are the average minor-league numbers for the 25 qualified MLB players who played 1B this season when they were in their age-20 season:
Code:

         AGE    HR    HR/PA%    BA    OBP    SLG    OPS    ISO
Average 1B    22.3*    16.3    3.4    .296    .382    .490    .872    .195
Marrero    20**    17    3.1    .282    .358    .452    .810    .168

* Age is the average age of the debut season for these 1B
** Marrero turned 21 on July 2, 2009 after playing 71 games. He played 64 games from July 2 to September 7; AFL games were not counted in this analysis.

Marrero’s age is a plus. He will turn 22 in July. He should be able to reach the big leagues by Opening Day 2011 (Age 22) or as a September call up (Age 23) next year. More than half (52%) of the players in this sample reached the big leagues at age 22 or younger. Nearly 90 percent (88) reached by age 23 or younger. Only three of the 25 qualified 1B reached after the age of 23 (Ryan Howard, 24; Adam LaRoche, 24; Kevin Youkilis, 25). Perhaps it’s not a bad sign to reach after 23, given that these three players have combined for four All-Star appearances and six Top-6 finishes in the MVP voting.

Only one player in this sample reached the big leagues at age 20 (Miguel Cabrera), while 11 of the 17 who played pro ball at age 20 played at AA or higher. Two of them made it to AAA that season (Albert Pujols, Paul Konerko).

Comparison #2
Here is the percentile rank of where Marrero compares to this sample of 25’s minor-league numbers:
Code:

HR    HR/PA%    BA    OBP    SLG    OPS    ISO
70    61    50    31    24    24    20

Unlike our more recent prospect comparison, Marrero only finishes in the top half in three of seven categories and finishes in the bottom 3rd in four of the categories.

Marrero compares somewhat favorably to the others in both HR’s and HR/PA%. But, Marrero lags behind in all of the triple slash. What’s concerning is the fact that Marrero’s SLG% is 38 points behind the average. Baseball America was quoted with this on Marrero’s power: “Marrero’s best tool is his plus-plus raw power to all fields, though he’s still learning to tap into it.”

Except for a 57-game stretch in Low-A in 2007, Marrero hasn’t shown that power yet. Another concern is that his isolated power has declined in each of the past 3 seasons (.209 in 2007, .203 in 2008, and .168 in 2009).

Comparison #3
Only two players had an OPS within 30 points of Marrero’s .810. One was Prince Fielder, but Marrero compares the best with Adrian Gonzalez:
PLAYER    LEVEL    HR    HR/PA%    BA    OBP    SLG    OPS    ISO
Marrero    A-AA    17    3.1    .282    .358    .452    .810    .168
Gonzalez    AA    17    3.0    .266    .344    .437    .781    .171

Both players have almost same amount of HR’s and HR/PA% and have a similar ISO. Marrero edges Gonzalez in triple slash stats mostly due to better luck with balls in play and playing in A ball for half the season. Marrero had a 20.8 K%, 9.0 BB% Gonzalez had a 19.5 K%, 9.4 BB%.

After a disappointing Age-21 season (.692 OPS between 2 levels), Gonzalez had a solid Age-22 season (.821 OPS in AAA). Gonzalez went on to have a brief stint in the big leagues that season (16 games). At age 23, Gonzalez had a breakout season (.960 OPS in AAA) which led to a midseason promotion to the Texas Rangers. In 2006, Gonzalez at the age of 24, became a full-time MLB player. That season he started a streak of four straight seasons with a slugging percentage of .500 or better, culminating in a 2009 season where he finished in the Top 5 in OPS.

Gonzalez started showing his power at the age of 24. It will be interesting to see if Marrero can tap into his “Plus-Plus raw power to all fields” that Baseball America believes he has, similar to the way that Gonzalez did. If Marrero becomes an everyday 1B, it will mostly likely happen at age 23 or 24 like it did for Gonzalez.


http://nationalsprospects.com/2010/02/12/chris-marrero-the-next-adrian-gonzalez/

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Hope for Chris Marrero
« Reply #1: February 12, 2010, 03:28:25 PM »
nice. 

I have high hopes for Marrero.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Hope for Chris Marrero
« Reply #2: February 12, 2010, 04:19:50 PM »
AG was always known for a great glove coming up.  The power development was a surprise.  Marrero is not known for his D and the power was supposed to be his ticket to the majors.

Offline Terpfan76

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Re: Hope for Chris Marrero
« Reply #3: February 12, 2010, 04:45:00 PM »
I hope to see Marrero develop into at least a solid defensive 1st baseman with a power bat. It would be great to have the ability to say that we don't need Dunn's bat in the lineup.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Hope for Chris Marrero
« Reply #4: November 22, 2010, 05:29:13 PM »
I have not seen Marrero, but for those of you who have, would you say his power is pull or opposite field? 

There's an interesting article from the source I cite too much, written by the author I cite too much, that conjectures (nothing more at this point) that players whose power is to the opposite field tend to develop power late and surprise people.  He mentions, among others, Votto and Adrian Gonzalez.  Given GMU's comparision at the top of the thread, I wonder if this may be an issue with Marrero.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/was-joey-vottos-breakout-predictable/
Quote
I have a theory – and that’s really all it is at this point, as we don’t yet have good enough data to draw firm conclusions – that players whose power is primarily to the opposite field develop differently, and are viewed less favorably early in their careers, than players with obvious pull power.

Votto’s power is primarily to left field, where his career ISO is .382, is significantly higher than his ISO to either CF (.261) or RF (.294). His career wOBA on balls to the opposite field is a staggering .508. In that way, he’s comparable to Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, and Ryan Howard, all of whom drive balls out the opposite way with regularity.

Gonzalez took three organizations to develop, and like Votto, had some real struggles in the minors. Howard didn’t become a regular in the big leagues until age 25. Mauer didn’t see his power really come to fruition until age 26, even though the rest of his game was already mature. Looking back at the list of historical opposite field home run hitters from Jeremy Greenhouse, we find more late bloomers like Roberto Clemente, Julio Franco, and Jim Edmonds, among others.

With a guy like Adam Dunn, who has been showing off his prodigious power with moonshots to right field from his professional debut, there was never a question as to how well the power would translate in the big leagues. Dunn’s pull power was a developed skill from an early age that required no real scouting acumen to spot. Guys who hit a lot of opposite field home runs, however, don’t provide the same kind of eye-popping displays that draw attention.


Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Hope for Chris Marrero
« Reply #5: November 22, 2010, 07:33:57 PM »
Nice. opposite field power is what Harper has too, no? It's a mark of a nice hitter.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Hope for Chris Marrero
« Reply #6: November 22, 2010, 07:48:21 PM »
Harper has power.

Offline Evolution33

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Re: Hope for Chris Marrero
« Reply #7: November 23, 2010, 12:17:26 PM »
I once saw Marrero hit a ball the opposite way for a triple that never rose more than 3 feet above the ground, but was a blistering line drive that hit the wall on the fly. He has power to all fields, but some scouts say he has a bit of a long swing. For him I wish there were minor league splits on some website since I don't think his .800 OPS last season tells the whole story. I remember him having a terrible first two months to the season and I would like to confirm this.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Hope for Chris Marrero
« Reply #8: November 23, 2010, 12:19:29 PM »
There is a website called Minor League Splits.

Unfortunately, he took it down for the off-season.

Offline blue911

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Re: Hope for Chris Marrero
« Reply #9: November 23, 2010, 12:21:19 PM »
I once saw Marrero hit a ball the opposite way for a triple that never rose more than 3 feet above the ground, but was a blistering line drive that hit the wall on the fly. He has power to all fields, but some scouts say he has a bit of a long swing. For him I wish there were minor league splits on some website since I don't think his .800 OPS last season tells the whole story. I remember him having a terrible first two months to the season and I would like to confirm this.


The site is down temporarily, but he has the basic stuff.



http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/index.html

Online DPMOmaha

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Re: Hope for Chris Marrero
« Reply #10: November 23, 2010, 12:25:34 PM »
Zim has always been an opposite field power guy too.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Hope for Chris Marrero
« Reply #11: December 26, 2010, 02:29:23 PM »
http://www.masnsports.com/byron_kerr/2010/12/nats-prospect-9-chris-marrero.html

Byron Kerr on Marrero.  The article doesn't seem all that optimistic.  The biggest things going for him are the Nats haven't given up on him yet and he's only 22.

Seems like someone who might add some value in a trade as 'one of the Nats top ten prospects according to BA.'

Offline PC

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Re: Hope for Chris Marrero
« Reply #12: December 27, 2010, 09:38:53 PM »
Marrero should have been traded for a MLB player a year or two ago, before people realized how bad he is.

Marrero is the "prospect" we should have moved.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Hope for Chris Marrero
« Reply #13: December 27, 2010, 09:59:54 PM »
Marrero should have been traded for a MLB player a year or two ago, before people realized how bad he is.

Marrero is the "prospect" we should have moved.

Wow you are on point today.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Hope for Chris Marrero
« Reply #14: April 25, 2011, 09:49:09 PM »
Stealing from BBQ's work:

I was doing a baseball-stat binge during one of my computer 'classes' today and came up with some interesting numbers. We can start to do these for others I'll start with Marrero.

Player..................Age at AA................BB %..............K%........HR%.........AVG.........OBP
Marrero...................20-21..................7.7%..............20%............3.4%...........290..........348
Adrian Gonzalez.........20.................... ..9.4%..............22%............3.3%...........266..........344
Nick Swisher.............22................. .....11%...............26.2%..........3.1%...........230..........324
Prince Fielder............20.................. ....11.2%............18.7%..........4.6%...........272..........366
Dan Uggla..............24-25....................8.6%..............19.9%..........3.1%..........283..........357