Author Topic: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts  (Read 1341 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Topic Start: February 01, 2010, 01:59:06 PM »
Their doing a review of each team's recent drafts and top 10 prospects.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/washington-nationals-draft-review/#comment-126865
2007 looks a bit like a kangaroo - thin on top, big below. From our top 6 picks in 3 rounds, just JZ looked good, and he hurt his arm. While nothing solid on top yet,  rounds 4 & 5 (Norris, Meyers) looks good.  If Detweiler and maybe another pick pans out (burgess, mcgeary?), this could end up being excellent.  5 players would be obscene.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #1: February 01, 2010, 02:08:07 PM »
The idea of a pitcher like Detwiler, with a good FB and nice breaking stuff, and a LH to boot, I see him getting a lot of chances.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #2: February 01, 2010, 02:29:17 PM »
The idea of a pitcher like Detwiler, with a good FB and nice breaking stuff, and a LH to boot, I see him getting a lot of chances.

Agree.  I think his average fastball would be among one of the fastest for a LH starter.  I am quite high on him.  He's one of the pitchers whose "should" be better by his FIP and xFIP.  There's a thought that LH starters gain control later.  Jorge De La Rosa might be an example, but there are a ton of others.  I believe he still can be the 3d starter behind SS and JZ, long term.  Yes, better than Lannan.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #3: February 01, 2010, 03:00:11 PM »
  There's a thought that LH starters gain control later. 

I can't think of any reason why this would be the case.  Other than left-handedness, why would they be any different?

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #4: February 01, 2010, 03:01:12 PM »
I can't think of any reason why this would be the case.  Other than left-handedness, why would they be any different?

Poor coaching?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #5: February 01, 2010, 03:42:20 PM »
anecdotally, mostly.

Quote
Anecdotally, we can all remember lefties that discovered control and success later than normal, including Randy Johnson, Al Leiter and Sandy Koufax. But while there is no proof that lefties develop later than righties, it would be foolish to ignore the possibility that de la Rosa could be another late bloomer. If he can continue to throw strikes like he did in the second half, de la Rosa could wind up as one of the top pitchers in baseball.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/should-fantasy-owners-pay-for-jorge-de-la-rosas-wins

That article links to a BP arrticle from 2002 that disputes the theory.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1349


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #6: February 01, 2010, 03:46:18 PM »
I just threw the "lefties develop later" theory out there to cross people up when they think I only quote statistical studies.  See, I'm as capable of making up my facts as . . .

Offline tomterp

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #7: February 01, 2010, 03:55:33 PM »
I just threw the "lefties develop later" theory out there to cross people up when they think I only quote statistical studies.  See, I'm as capable of making up my facts as . . .

Now I'm with ya..... :lol:

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Today they posted their list of the Nats top 10 prospects. Because the author has a rule of not rating 2009 international signees or draftees, Storen was excluded, but because Strasburg is Strasburg, he made and exception for him.  Not much in the way of surprises, a few good write ups.  Respect for Brad Meyers, Aaron Thompson, and Eury Perez.

1. Strasburg
2. Norris
3. Desmond
4. Espinosa
5. Marrero
6. Burgess
7. Meyers
8. Thompson
9. Hood
10. Perez

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/washington-nationals-top-10-prospects/#comments

Offline PatsNats28

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #9: February 02, 2010, 05:19:52 PM »
for a site like fangraphs, i was disappointed to see the author use ISO power in his evaluations. really?? come on... this isn't the 80s.

(ISO power is SLG-OBP. pretty lame)

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #10: February 02, 2010, 05:46:53 PM »
for a site like fangraphs, i was disappointed to see the author use ISO power in his evaluations. really?? come on... this isn't the 80s.

(ISO power is SLG-OBP. pretty lame)

Nah it's SLG-AVG, OBP wouldn't make sense because walks don't factor into SLG. What power measure do you suggest? Sometimes simple is best. A lot of these stats geeks forget that.

Offline blue911

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #11: February 02, 2010, 05:49:12 PM »
Nah it's SLG-AVG, OBP wouldn't make sense because walks don't factor into SLG. What power measure do you suggest? Sometimes simple is best. A lot of these stats geeks forget that.

 How about the number of XBH?

Offline JMW IV

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #12: February 02, 2010, 05:52:08 PM »
How about the number of XBH?

divided by at-bats?

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #13: February 02, 2010, 06:01:54 PM »
How about the number of XBH?

 
divided by at-bats?

That's what ISO is essentially, except 3B's and HR's are weighted accordingly. What's the problem here?

Offline JMW IV

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #14: February 02, 2010, 06:07:37 PM »
i was just throwing it out there.

I don't know anything about ISO to have a problem with it.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #15: February 02, 2010, 06:09:07 PM »
i was just throwing it out there.

I don't know anything about ISO to have a problem with it.

Yeah, I was trying to use it to prove Desmond has more power potential than Hudson, and it wasn't working, even though Desmond had a higher ISO due to maybe lower BA, I don't know.

I'm agreeing with you and blue in principle. . .

Offline PatsNats28

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #16: February 02, 2010, 10:35:46 PM »
Nah it's SLG-AVG, OBP wouldn't make sense because walks don't factor into SLG. What power measure do you suggest? Sometimes simple is best. A lot of these stats geeks forget that.

same deal. my whole issue is that, like i said, it goes back to that SLG is weighted unevenly, so it's an inaccurate measure of how well a hitter hits.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #17: February 03, 2010, 08:11:11 AM »
I like ISO.  It is easy to pronounce - Eye-So. I suppose you could do XBH/ABs or PAs, but that would equate doubles to HRs.  While both are good, HRs are better.  That is reflected in ISO.  You could also do something like (doubles + 2xtriples + 3xHRs)/ ABs or PAs to get an extra base rate, but that requires a lot of math.  The simplicity of ISO is good.  It is a measure of Pure Pop, but maybe not the best measure (this is).  So it goes.  As long as you understand what it is doing, it is useful.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Fangraphs review of our last 3 drafts
« Reply #18: February 03, 2010, 10:06:43 AM »
same deal. my whole issue is that, like i said, it goes back to that SLG is weighted unevenly, so it's an inaccurate measure of how well a hitter hits.

:bang: A HR is better than a double, right? Have to hit it farther? Triples are more of a speed concern in modern baseball, but not in the olden days, from what I understand.

I like JCA's post.