Halladay to the Phillies (Cliff Lee to the Mariners)

[PANatsFan]

they probably think the can win the al west next year- between lackey leaving and a top two of Hernandez and Lee, they may be right

Mortgaging the future to assuage fairweather fans, I know.

[imref]

it's a decent move for Seattle and Philly, but what was Toronto thinking?

[DPMOmaha]

it's a decent move for Seattle and Philly, but what was Toronto thinking?

That there was no way to get Halladay to re-sign so they need to get the best possible package in return, which will come now, rather than at the deadline.  When it was all said and done they got one of the best pitching and hitting  prospects in the game out of the deal.  I think they did ok.

[HalfSmokes]

That there was no way to get Halladay to re-sign so they need to get the best possible package in return, which will come now, rather than at the deadline.  When it was all said and done they got one of the best pitching and hitting  prospects in the game out of the deal.  I think they did ok.

they have a bunch of DH/LFs/1bs who can't filed now between Lind, Snyder and now Wallace

[DPMOmaha]

they have a bunch of DH/LFs/1bs who can't filed now between Lind, Snyder and now Wallace

So?  Wallace will make a fantastic trading chip down the line.  When you get a chance to get a player like that, you take it.  Organizational depth generally isn't frowned upon by most teams.

[HalfSmokes]

So?  Wallace will make a fantastic trading chip down the line.  When you get a chance to get a player like that, you take it.  Organizational depth generally isn't frowned upon by most teams.

they were trading away one of the best pitchers in baseball, I just don't see the return as that spectacular and I really don't understand the Wallace portion of it

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Mortgaging the future to assuage fairweather fans, I know.

Are you kidding?  They gave up a fkn reliever for Cliff Lee.

[DPMOmaha]

they were trading away one of the best pitchers in baseball, I just don't see the return as that spectacular and I really don't understand the Wallace portion of it

Becasue Wallace immediately becomes the best 1B prospect in the Jays organization and is one of the better prospects in all of minor league baseball. 

[HalfSmokes]

Becasue Wallace immediately becomes the best 1B prospect in the Jays organization and is one of the better prospects in all of minor league baseball. 

and what was Taylor

[DPMOmaha]

and what was Taylor

An outfielder.  They're pretty solid in the OF.  Oakland, not so much.

[imref]

Keith Law: The deal: Mariners win, Jays win, Phillies lose

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4745535&name=law_keith

he's high on Drabek and thinks the Phillies gutted their farm system without improving much.

[Lintyfresh85]

That's insider homes.

[PatsNats28]

Allow me:

Assuming that this series of three trades as currently reported stands, here's how I'd break down the exchanges for each of the four teams involved:

The Toronto Blue Jays: They landed three top-100 prospects for one year of Roy Halladay and $6 million (a sunk cost), which is more impact talent than Cleveland and Philadelphia received in total in the two Cliff Lee deals. Kyle Drabek is a potential No. 2 starter with good velocity and a potential out-pitch curveball; his changeup is still fringy and he needs to show he can command his fastball to his arm side and either work lower in the zone with it or complement it with a two-seamer or cutter. Toronto doesn't have anything like Drabek in its system now, as former GM J.P. Ricciardi was opposed to taking high school pitchers in the draft; the Blue Jays' focus on polished college arms has only produced one pitcher (Shaun Marcum, a college reliever) who might be a No. 2 starter in the big leagues. Travis d'Arnaud is a still unpolished but moderate-to-high-upside catching prospect who finished very strongly after a rough start at Class A Lakewood in 2009. He has a good idea of the strike zone with bat control and a short path to the ball; he's athletic for a catcher and has arm strength but still needs work on his feet and his throwing mechanics.

The Jays also acquire outfielder Michael Taylor in the deal, but are sending him to Oakland for third baseman Brett Wallace; I'd rather have Wallace than Taylor, although the reactions of people within the industry with whom I've spoken have been mixed on the side deal. Wallace is a hitter -- one of the best pure bats in the minors -- and would have been a top-10 pick in the 2008 draft if he had a clear position and didn't have an unusual body type; while he's not fat, he's often labeled as such or as a "bad-bodied" guy because his thighs are enormous and he doesn't have any lateral quickness. But he hits -- with great plate discipline and an unusual ability to hit left-handed pitching -- and if Toronto wants him to come north with the club in April he's ready to do so as a hitter. He's probably going to end up at first base, although he has played third and the Jays do have one of the best infield coaches in the game in Brian Butterfield; a lineup with Adam Lind, Travis Snider and Wallace will get a lot of production from young, inexpensive hitters in the middle of its order.

Taylor is a monster who remade his swing in pro ball and has shown a good approach at the plate and very good bat control; the main question on Taylor is whether his new swing is going to generate the power his frame implies, as it's flat and more geared to line drives than big flies. The trade still makes sense for Oakland, however, since they already have a logjam of first base/DH types with Chris Carter, Daric Barton and Jake Fox -- but don't have impact bats for corner outfield spots. It's a smart reallocation of resources, and Taylor and Wallace are close enough that the A's could easily have ended up with the better player.

The Seattle Mariners: They made the biggest gain in this series of transactions by landing Cliff Lee. They're giving up two of their top pitching prospects in Phillippe Aumont and Juan Ramirez, but there's a good chance both end up in the bullpen; Aumont is already there after hip problems and some makeup questions (he broke his non-throwing hand by punching a locker in August).

He gets great life on a low-to-mid-90s fastball and should get plenty of ground balls as he learns to command the pitch better; unlike a lot of low-slot right-handers, he hasn't shown a pronounced platoon split against left-handed hitters. Ramirez has electric stuff but hasn't missed a lot of bats in full-season ball and his ultra-skinny build has raised long-term durability questions -- although, unlike Aumont, he continues to start and should remain there until he proves he can't handle it. Tyson Gillies is among the fastest men in baseball and has a decent approach at the plate, but guys with below-average power often find their ability to work the count compromised by higher-level pitchers who realize they can challenge those hitters in the zone with some impunity, and unless he becomes a plus-plus defender in the outfield he's going to end up a fourth outfielder.

So, it's a large price to pay for one year of Lee because they're giving up so many years of control of three almost-certain big leaguers -- but trading second-tier prospects for one impact big leaguer is nearly always a good value because of the benefit of having so much major-league value occupying just one roster spot. Seattle sees an opportunity for 2010 with the Angels losing John Lackey and Chone Figgins, and while the losses do deplete Seattle's system, the Mariners are not barren (they still have Dustin Ackley and Alex Liddi) and making a legitimate run at a division title is a pretty good reason to empty out your farm.

The Philadelphia Phillies: They swap one ace for a very slightly better ace in Roy Halladay, whose value over Lee may be as much in his stronger track record as in pitching ability. The price they pay for this small improvement is a major dent in their farm system, trading a superior package of prospects to Toronto for the three players they landed from Seattle in the exchange for Lee. I'm not sure why the Phillies -- who were the favorites to win the NL East in 2010 before this move -- were motivated to make the trade; yes, they can sign Halladay to an extension and couldn't sign Lee, but that's independent of the deals used to obtain one pitcher and trade the other. They might be half a win better in 2010, a whole win at most, but deleted a lot of value from what was a solid farm system before they made the moves.

[JMUalumni]

Apparently, one of the prospects involved in the trade failed their physical (per Bob Elliot - Toronto Sun), but it appears that this may be just a "minor" issue.  While it sucks that Halladay is coming to our division, it will sure be nice to have Cliff Lee, Michael Taylor, and Kyle Drabek shipped off to AL teams.