The Stephen Strasburg era begins today

[DPMOmaha]

I said they should sign him to an extension, but even if they're too stupid to do that, at least they'll be able to get their Chris Tillman sooner.The "smart decision" would be to sign him to an extension if he's that good, price tag be damned.  The whole issue of team control is a wash.

They can cross that bridge when they come to it, but when you're looking at it from where we are now, you should at least give yourself the option to control the extra year, especially considering who his agent is.  6-8 weeks in the minors is going to have minimal impact on whether or not he becomes a successful pitcher at the major legue level.  We're not likely or planning to contend this year, if we were, it would be different.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

SSS. The Nats are not good enough to contend this year.

Call me pessimistic... but that's how I see it.

I'm talking about next year.  If we want to improve our chances of contending in 2011, the Nats are best served getting him as much ML experience as they can this year.

[Lintyfresh85]

A few weeks in the minors won't impede his progress of being in stride next year.

[JMUalumni]

Another thing to consider with Strasburg is inning limits.  SS is going to be capped at about 140 MLB innings this season, but that is a pretty big step up from 110 college innings last season.  Just from health POV, it would be smart for the Nationals to have him throw at least 20-30 MiLB innings, which are much less taxing than MLB innings, before he gets to the big leagues and then somewhere b/w 100 and 120 MLB innings once he is called up.  Either way, he is going to reach his inning limits whether he is brought up in April or in June.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Another thing to consider with Strasburg is inning limits.  SS is going to be capped at about 140 MLB innings this season, but that is a pretty big step up from 110 college innings last season.  Just from health POV, it would be smart for the Nationals to have him throw at least 20-30 MiLB innings, which are much less taxing than MLB innings, before he gets to the big leagues and then somewhere b/w 100 and 120 MLB innings once he is called up.  Either way, he is going to reach his inning limits whether he is brought up in April or in June.

This kind of factors into my thinking as well.  Truth be told, I'd rather front-load all of those innings in the earlier part of the season and shut him down early.  That will hold down the rotation spot and leave room for someone like Meyers, Martis, Mandel, or Thompson for a look in August/September.  Right now, you're possibly surrendering the spot to Livan Hernandez.

[natsfan4evr]

They can cross that bridge when they come to it, but when you're looking at it from where we are now, you should at least give yourself the option to control the extra year, especially considering who his agent is.  6-8 weeks in the minors is going to have minimal impact on whether or not he becomes a successful pitcher at the major legue level.  We're not likely or planning to contend this year, if we were, it would be different.

I'm still confused by some of these posts. We are comparing arbitration to team control, but they are two separate issues. Jordan Zimmermann qualified for Super Two status last season due to his early callup, but the team controls him for 6 years starting this year. Super two only relates to arbitration...service time is service time. If you don't have exactly 6 years before the start of a season, you can't declare free agency. 

Unless I'm totally misreading things, Strasburg has a set contract for 4 years (3 after last year), which would cover his first arbitration year if he does receive super two status. I don't see this team ever letting him go if he produces as expected, so I doubt he makes it into his 4th year without signing an extension. I think the LAC brigade is way off base, and that this team will reach the 100 million mark by 2012.

[blue911]

Another thing to consider with Strasburg is inning limits.  SS is going to be capped at about 140 MLB innings this season, but that is a pretty big step up from 110 college innings last season.  Just from health POV, it would be smart for the Nationals to have him throw at least 20-30 MiLB innings, which are much less taxing than MLB innings, before he gets to the big leagues and then somewhere b/w 100 and 120 MLB innings once he is called up.  Either way, he is going to reach his inning limits whether he is brought up in April or in June.

Has that ever worked? I can't recall one starter that went on to a successful career with almost no MiLB experience.

[JMUalumni]

This kind of factors into my thinking as well.  Truth be told, I'd rather front-load all of those innings in the earlier part of the season and shut him down early.  That will hold down the rotation spot and leave room for someone like Meyers, Martis, Mandel, or Thompson for a look in August/September.  Right now, you're possibly surrendering the spot to Livan Hernandez.

Personally I would prefer starting Strasburg in the minors unless he dominates in ST, but another thing to consider in this respect is the quality of competition in April/May vs. September.  The majority of teams that are out of playoff contention by the fall will start playing watered down squads.

Another thing I was thinking, not sure how this would work, but could the Nats conceivably play Strasburg in the big leagues until he reached his innings limit, then option him and send him to AAA and shut him down? 

[DPMOmaha]

Has that ever worked? I can't recall one starter that went on to a successful career with almost no MiLB experience.

Do Sandy Koufax, Bob Feller, Catfish Hunter or Walter Johnson count?

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Personally I would prefer starting Strasburg in the minors unless he dominates in ST

Just to be clear, I don't feel any different from this.  I'm just saying give the kid the ball if he really proves his worth in ST, so this is all meaningless chatter anyway.

[Lintyfresh85]

Personally I would prefer starting Strasburg in the minors unless he dominates in ST, but another thing to consider in this respect is the quality of competition in April/May vs. September.  The majority of teams that are out of playoff contention by the fall will start playing watered down squads.

Another thing I was thinking, not sure how this would work, but could the Nats conceivably play Strasburg in the big leagues until he reached his innings limit, then option him and send him to AAA and shut him down? 

I think the MLBPA would be pretty pissed if the Nats tried to pull that.

[blue911]

Do Sandy Koufax, Bob Feller, Catfish Hunter or Walter Johnson count?

So not in 45 years.

[natsfan4evr]

I think the MLBPA would be pretty annoyed if the Nats tried to pull that.

Not to mention the impact that would have on Stephen himself. Those things hurt when it comes to renegotiating a contract. Also, add in the fact that the team would be ridiculed and the LAC camp would be ecstatic

[Nat of the Living Dead]

I hope the Team Store in Viera doesn't sell out of Strasburg shirts.

[DPMOmaha]

So not in 45 years.

Or 30.  It doesn't happen often, but it has happened before.

[houston-nat]

Has that ever worked? I can't recall one starter that went on to a successful career with almost no MiLB experience.

Dwight Gooden beat the snot out of the whole league at age 19. At age 21 he threw 276 innings. Lesson learned: you can have a successful career with almost no MiLB experience, as long as you throw a sane number of innings and don't get addicted to cocaine.

[JMUalumni]

Has that ever worked? I can't recall one starter that went on to a successful career with almost no MiLB experience.

Lincecum is the closest thing I can find with 62.2 IP and it probably would have been less without consideration for super 2.  I was lowballing with my original estimate, but I think that the 8-10 start estimate that had been made by some would put him close to what Lincecum did.  (Although including AFL innings, my original estimate would be just as close).

[natsfan4evr]

Dwight Gooden beat the snot out of the whole league at age 19. At age 21 he threw 276 innings. Lesson learned: you can have a successful career with almost no MiLB experience, as long as you throw a sane number of innings and don't get addicted to cocaine.

Strasburg also pitched in the Olympics and had Tony Gwynn as a coach. I think if anyone could skip minor league ball, it would be Stephen.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Dwight Gooden beat the snot out of the whole league at age 19. At age 21 he threw 276 innings. Lesson learned: you can have a successful career with almost no MiLB experience, as long as you throw a sane number of innings and don't get addicted to cocaine.

He did have like 20+ MiLB starts.

Strasburg also pitched in the Olympics and had Tony Gwynn as a coach. I think if anyone could skip minor league ball, it would be Stephen.

Yep.  Blue's point seems kind of moot when you have all these scouts saying he's the best draft-era pitching prospect.

[JMUalumni]

So not in 45 years.

Out of curiosity, do you have a list of players prepared that tried to jump to the MLB with little to no MiLB exp AND failed?

[blue911]

Dwight Gooden beat the snot out of the whole league at age 19. At age 21 he threw 276 innings. Lesson learned: you can have a successful career with almost no MiLB experience, as long as you throw a sane number of innings and don't get addicted to cocaine.

Gooden had 38 starts and a year + of MiLB. I think Strasburg has the catalog of pitches to compete on the MLB level, just not the knowledge. Both Tony Gwynn and Davey Johnson have said that Strasburg isn't ready "mentally". I take that to mean he needs to learn how to use what he has and not develop better pitches.

[houston-nat]

Lincecum is the closest thing I can find with 62.2 IP and it probably would have been less without consideration for super 2.  I was lowballing with my original estimate, but I think that the 8-10 start estimate that had been made by some would put him close to what Lincecum did.  (Although including AFL innings, my original estimate would be just as close).

I agree that the guy should spend some quality time in the minors. If it's a Lincecum-style situation where he's obviously too awesome, that's great; otherwise, the more learning time the better. I'd be cool with Stras starting 5-7 each at Potomac and Harrisburg and then making the jump for, say, 10-15 in Washington ([5x10 = 50] + [6*15 = 90] = 140).

[blue911]

Out of curiosity, do you have a list of players prepared that tried to jump to the MLB with little to no MiLB exp AND failed?

No, I was just curious why you would propose such a short stay in the minors.

[natsfan4evr]

Gooden had 38 starts and a year + of MiLB. I think Strasburg has the catalog of pitches to compete on the MLB level, just not the knowledge. Both Tony Gwynn and Davey Johnson have said that Strasburg isn't ready "mentally". I take that to mean he needs to learn how to use what he has and not develop better pitches.

I agree with what you're saying, I just think he's better than anyone we can compare to at this point in his career. I think the Nats hold onto him until June unless he starts doing something insane in the minors like strike out every guy or pitch a no hitter in every game he starts.

[houston-nat]

Yeah, Strasburg can be our midseason really-really-not-at-all-secret secret weapon that we whip out and suddenly win the next 50 games in a row!