Author Topic: The Bryce Harper Watch  (Read 90182 times)

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Offline Smithian

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #425: May 22, 2010, 09:35:27 PM »
Jes-... Satan.

Online imref

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #426: May 22, 2010, 10:56:14 PM »
He's a Boras client, he'll probably cut the deadline closer than Strasburg did.

Yeah, Strasburg left about 15 seconds to spare.

Online imref

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #427: May 22, 2010, 10:58:13 PM »
Quote
LAMAR, Colo. -- With the season on the line, Bryce Harper stepped up to lead the College of Southern Nevada to the Junior College World Series.

Harper went 6-for-6 with four home runs and nine RBIs as the Coyotes defeated Central Arizona 25-11 today in the championship game of the NJCAA Western District Tournament.

Harper also doubled and tripled. The 17-year-old from Las Vegas High School was named tournament Most Valuable Player.

 :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock:

You know, if he comes in and tears up the AFL and spring training, we're going to spend all January-March going through this same Super-2 / Arbitration argument all over again.

Online DPMOmaha

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #428: May 22, 2010, 11:00:24 PM »
And I fully expect them to do the exact same thing...

Offline Smithian

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #429: May 22, 2010, 11:04:20 PM »
I'd prefer them not bring him up to September. Rush him up to AAA and let him play with grown men for a few months before dropping him into a pressure packed, major league situation as an 18 year old. Preferably I'd like him to make it all the way to September 2012.

Online imref

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #430: May 22, 2010, 11:05:38 PM »
I'm just in awe of the fact that we might be talking about calling up an 18 year old with almost no minor league experience.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #431: May 22, 2010, 11:11:27 PM »
what are his updated totals?

Online imref

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #432: May 22, 2010, 11:12:17 PM »
regular season is here:

http://sites.csn.edu/dcabrera/baseball/2010/teamcume.htm

not sure about playoffs

Offline houston-nat

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #433: May 22, 2010, 11:17:16 PM »
A day after hitting for the cycle, he falls a SINGLE short of the cycle because he hit 3 extra home runs?

Good grief!

Offline Terpfan76

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #434: May 22, 2010, 11:20:40 PM »
I concur. If we draft him and are able to sign him, let's not rush him to the majors just for the sake of doing it. Let him play in the AFL and then a month maybe in high A. If he's clearly dominating, then move him accordingly, but this kid, more than Strasburg needs seasoning in the minors if for no other reason than to give him the time with career minor leaguers, end of career pro's and other hungry prospects. He seems like a good kid with a good up bringing, but could maybe use a dose of humility. Where better to gain that than on a bus full of veteran ball players.

Online imref

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #435: May 22, 2010, 11:38:49 PM »
unless of course he's batting .500 with a HR every dozen at bats. :-)

Offline Battleship

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #436: May 22, 2010, 11:43:42 PM »
It was actually 10 RBIs.  I listened to both games and he caught most of both games as well.  He had 13 RBIs total today, and 21 in the four games.  

His totals for the four games are 15-22, 2 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 6 HRs, BB, HBP, SB, 21 RBIs.

It is a hitter's park and there was a strong wind going out to center, but still.  His HRs today were to right, left, right center, and center.

EDIT: Sorry, he had six home runs in the four games.  He has 29 in 62 games this year.

Edit 2:  If I did the numbers right, he had a .682 BA, .708 OBP, and an 1.819 Slugging %.  A 2.527 OPS isn't too shabby:)

Offline Zoidberg

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #437: May 23, 2010, 03:38:02 AM »
satan rofl. there will be an epic pitcher-catcher visit on the mound in 2012 the world will explode.

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #438: May 23, 2010, 04:35:30 AM »
holy crap. He had 4 homers in one game? 6 in 2 games? This kid is unbelievable.

Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #439: May 23, 2010, 08:22:17 AM »
Harper will be loved by the fans of the team that drafts him, and hated by fans elsewhere. Then he will go to another team, and be despised by fans of the team that drafts him.

He'll be a Yankee at that point so everyone would still hate him.

Offline natsfan4evr

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #440: May 23, 2010, 08:37:45 AM »
I was the one that said he couldn't continue his dominance and that there was way too much hype. Boy was I wrong. This team could have the ultimate pitcher and ultimate hitter in back-to-back draft years. How can a kid at his age be this dominant? One question though...can he hit off speed stuff? I doubt he is facing much if any of that in junior college. Wily Mo Pena could hit the ball a ton too, the problem was he couldn't lay off of the junk pitches.

I'm excited they are using wooden bats, because I was worried about how he would do after losing the metal bat.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #441: May 23, 2010, 09:15:49 AM »
Why would you doubt he sees much off speed at Juco? College age pitchers have all developed off-speed pitches. With the hype he has, it's probably all he sees.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #442: May 23, 2010, 09:37:18 PM »
Thinking about it some more, perhaps we should go with a different nickname than Satan.  I'm thinking Beelzebub.  That way, Carpy could have a homer call, "There goes another Beelzeblast!"  When he drops a pop-up or 3d strike, we could call it a Beelzebobble.  Not to mention the Lerners opportunity to market Beelzebobbleheads - the only bobbleheads that have the heads spin 360 degrees.  Add a pull string and have it quote Linda Blair.

Online wpa2629

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #443: May 24, 2010, 12:58:34 PM »
I have no doubt his bat will be MLB ready in short order, but what about his battery skills? Being an MLB catcher, particularly with all the young pitchers we're going to have, is ridiculously difficult. Can't see anyway he would be in the majors in only a year unless they change his position, which I think they'd be loathed to do.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #444: May 24, 2010, 01:51:07 PM »
I have no doubt his bat will be MLB ready in short order, but what about his battery skills? Being an MLB catcher, particularly with all the young pitchers we're going to have, is ridiculously difficult. Can't see anyway he would be in the majors in only a year unless they change his position, which I think they'd be loathed to do.

I think a lot depends on the contract. If he gets a major league contact, I think that limits the time the team will wast with him in the minors

Offline GMUTrkstar

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #445: May 25, 2010, 04:40:51 PM »
Kevin Goldstein put out a big article on Harpers leverage today:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10963#commentMessage

If someone has a subscription can you summarize it....

Offline d_mc_nabb

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #446: May 25, 2010, 08:55:20 PM »
Don't know if anybody else posted this, but Per Rotoworld:

"Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said he has decided who to take with the No. 1 pick in next month's First-Year Player Draft.
He wouldn't name names, but for a second straight year, it's essentially a foregone conclusion. At just 17 years old, Bryce Harper is already one of the most intriguing power prospects in recent memory. Like Strasburg, it will cost them, but it's hard to see them passing this kind of potential up. "

Offline tomterp

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #447: May 25, 2010, 09:45:52 PM »
Kevin Goldstein put out a big article on Harpers leverage today:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10963#commentMessage

If someone has a subscription can you summarize it....


Half Smokes, don't read this, remember you can get all you need elsewhere.

Quote
In terms of pure talent evaluation, baseball's draft is the most difficult among major sports due to the widely varying ranges in age and experience, forcing clubs to look equally at both nearly finished college products and high school players, many who have yet to even physically mature. Confusing things even more is a factor that rarely enters into the other sports. In basketball and football, the order players go off the board is a pretty solid estimation of their talent level, but without defined bonuses for each pick, other than Major League Baseball's routinely-ignored suggestions, signability plays a major factor in where a player is selected in the baseball draft. The biggest factor in gauging signability is leverage, and while College of Southern Nevada catcher Bryce Harper is nearly universally seen as historic on a talent level, his leverage is even more unique.

MLB has done its best to limit leverage over the past decade, eliminating the draft-and-follow system, shortening the signing window from nearly a year to just over two months, and at least trying to create some financial structure with the suggested slots. However, with each new rule comes new opportunities, and nobody finds those better than Harper's agent, Scott Boras.

“He's the king of leverage,” said one front office official. “Hell, he practically invented it.”

Leverage traditionally comes from younger players, as high school players who find teams that don't meet their demands opt for the college game and an opportunity to maintain or improve their sdraft tock down the road. However, for Harper, by leaving high school two years early, getting his GED, and enrolling in a junior college that has no effect on his eligibility, he has created more leverage than any top pick in draft history, as he can return to his junior college next season and be just 18 when the 2011 draft begins—as old as the high school draftees.

“Obviously, this whole move was very well thought out,” said one scouting director. “They didn't rush into this—they knew what they were doing.”

“I can't imagine another 17-year-old being this good, but I also can't imagine any player ever being in this good of a position to get a big bonus,” said Allan Simpson of Perfect Game, the leading draft historian and pioneer of draft coverage.

Ironically, Harper's remarkable performance may have hurt his leverage in some ways, and interestingly enough, so might the current collective bargaining agreement.

Had Harper merely hit something arbitrary, like .300 with 12 home runs, that would have been seen as an unparalleled success and still cemented his status as the top player in the draft by a wide margin. Now, with him exceeding arguably the largest expectations in draft history by a wide margin by consistently keeping his average near .400 and pushing 30 home runs, he may have peaked for some, instead of giving himself a good performance to build on.

“The threat of his leverage is that he'll go back to school and come out the next year,” said one team official. “But is there any way he can be any better than he's been this year?”

Then there is the CBA that ends after the 2011 season. Consistently treated as the redheaded stepchild in previous talks, insiders on both sides of the table believe that the upcoming negotiations will be the one where the draft is finally addressed in a very real manner, including the possibility of a hard slotting system that would all but end the days of the over-slot signing bonus. Thus, the 2011 version of draft candidate Bryce Harper would almost be forced to sign, assuming that his leverage would be reduced dramatically the following year.

So what can one expect for Harper between him being selected first overall on June 7 and the Aug. 17 signing deadline? While talk about his leverage and the possibility of some struggles in junior college were all the rage in February, as teams looked for angles that would have Harper falling, his performance has assured that the window is closed, and the Nationals simply have no other options with their pick.

Only two first overall picks in draft history haven't signed, but they were both before the days of big bonuses and the concept of leverage. In 1971, the cash-poor White Sox selected Illinois high school-star Danny Goodwin, hoping for a hometown discount. They didn't get it (for reference, Goodwin was reportedly looking for a whopping $100,000), and he attended college, once again becoming the No. 1 overall selection four years later. In 1983, Tim Belcher, at tiny Mount Vernon Nazarene University in Ohio, came from out of nowhere to go No. 1 to the Twins, but got nowhere in negotiations, only to be selected six months later by the Yankees in the now-defunct January phase of the draft.

Not signing is not an option anymore; there's just too much at stake for both Harper and the Nationals. In the 1970s and 1980s, only the biggest of baseball geeks even knew the draft existed, and now Harper is a household name. It's been four months since anyone in the game even mentioned the possibility of Harper not signing; now all the discussion moves to money.

Last year, Stephen Strasburg, whose reign as the draft's biggest thing ever will last just one year, broke draft records by signing for a $15.1 million major-league package that included a $7.5 million bonus. That deal was also negotiated by Boras, and he'll be looking to build on it this year. Nobody gets bigger draft deals than Boras, and while he has many tricks in his bag, a reverse gear just isn't in him. Strasburg will just be the starting point, but to find the goal, one might be best-served by looking at Aroldis Chapman, who received over $30 million from the Reds over the winter as a free agent out of Cuba.

“Boras has made no secret of how he feels about Chapman's deal,” said an experienced front office official. “Right or wrong, germane or not, that's what a talent gets on the free market, and now Boras is going to look for something close to it.”

A quick survey of five team insiders went a perfect 5-for-5 in thinking Harper's contract would exceed Strasburg's, with a predicted bonus ranging from $8-10 million and a total package ranging from $16-20 million. But it's Harper's age that that once again comes into play.

“Washington will have a very tough decision with Harper's development,” said one assistant general manager. “His upside as a catcher is through the roof, but that could take some time because of his raw defense. At the same time, you could throw him in right field and he might be in the big leagues before he's 20.”

Such a scenario creates its own problems, as while a quick ascension to the big leagues would be a boon for the Nationals both on the field and in terms of box office, it would also create a situation where Harper is a free agent at 26, just entering his prime, shades of Alex Rodriguez in the winter of 2000.

 “This is baseball, and players, especially the talented ones, are going to get paid,” said another team official, adding with a tinge of begrudging respect, “somebody is always going to find an angle to get their guy a little bit more in the end, and that person tends to be Scott Boras.”

A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider .

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.


Offline tomterp

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #448: May 25, 2010, 09:59:40 PM »
He does not discuss the reality that if Harper goes back to school another year, and is again drafted #1, it would likely be by a team that will NOT pay him anywhere near what he would hope to get from the Nats.  The Astros, Orioles, or Pirates simply aren't going to break the bank.

Offline Smithian

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #449: May 25, 2010, 11:32:35 PM »
I still have a good feeling resigning him. Let's say we're contending when FA comes and he's halfway living up to expectations. We're a big market team and Ted Lerner is the richest owner in baseball. I can see us surpassing A-Rod's record payday, maybe even breaking 300 million, but what says we can't sign him to a super deal? If the Lerners are serious about Washington DC baseball, having maybe the best pitcher and hitter in baseball is unheard of... If you pay them, who cares? You put yourself in championship contention with those two alone. The Lerners have money. They're not in this for money, they could make a lot more money in something else.