Author Topic: The Bryce Harper Watch  (Read 92679 times)

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Offline tomterp

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #250: April 23, 2010, 08:41:29 AM »
From Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus:

Quote
Coming into this spring, Bryce Harper was universally seen as the top player in the draft, but the chances of Washington taking him with the first pick were initially handicapped as a 50/50 proposition. Harper's performance so far at the College of Southern Nevada has changed those chances significantly, as he's basically given the Nationals no excuse to pass on him by batting .401/.494/.866 with wood bats in a junior college league at the age of 17. He's crushed 17 home runs (the team has just 45) in 142 at-bats, drawn 26 walks, and even stolen 13 bases in 15 attempts while playing catcher, third base, and some center field.

Nats general manager Mike Rizzo has consummated numerous contracts in the past with super-agent Scott Boras, including Stephen Strasburg's record-breaking deal last August, so that's another non-factor. Still, while the chances of Washington selecting Harper slowly creep to "lock" status, there are still four questions remaining.

The Number: We're not talking about statistics anymore, we're talking about money, and there's little clarification as to just how high we'll go. The first part to understanding the problem is to know how Boras historically negotiates. Boras never just provides a number, there's always a baseline comparison, then adjustments for history (inflation). For example, Strasburg was Mark Prior plus inflation; any great hitter is Mark Teixeira plus inflation. With Harper, there is no baseline to begin at, as there's no precedent for a talent like his when it comes to age and proven ability. "You know that money is going to be extreme," said one team official, "but I have no idea where it is going to end up." Adding to the potential problem is Boras' recent public statement bemoaning the difference between what American and international players sign for as amateurs. Projections range wildly, from a figure of $7 to $8 million—which would make him the highest-paid teenager ever—to a number that exceeds Strasburg's $15.1 million, as Boras might not be willing to go backward after breaking the bank in 2009.
 
The Leverage: Without question, Harper is the most leveraged talent in draft history, and that could play a major role in this summer's negotiations. He's 17, and he's the best player in the draft. "He certainly could say, 'Give me this crazy amount of money or I'll go back to school and do it again,'" said one scouting director. "The thing here is that it would not hurt him in the least. He would do it again, and next June he'd be only 18, and the same age as most high school picks." This leverage does only last for one year, however, and the current CBA expires after the 2011 season, and changes to the draft, especially in terms of bonuses, are expected to be a major issue in the upcoming negotiations.
 
The Body: Harper is listed at 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, but most think he's about an inch taller and 10 more pounds than that. To be fair, Harper is a chiseled athlete, with no complaints about his current frame, but some wonder just what he will look like when he's 25. There's an excellent chance that he looks like Joe Mauer (6-foot-5 and 230) or Matt Wieters (also 6-foot-5, and 225), but there is some fear at the outside chance of him ending up like Adam Dunn, who at this point is 6-foot-6 and is listed at 287, and is a slow, range-less behemoth. That was not always the case: Dunn was 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds coming up through the Reds’ system, and had back-to-back 20-steal seasons in his first two full years. Like Dunn, Harper is so big so early in life that it has to be at least a minor concern.
 
The Makeup: This should not be underrated. It's impossible to find any talent evaluator who isn't blown away by Harper's ability on the field, but it's equally difficult to find one who doesn't genuinely dislike the kid. One scout called him among the worst amateur players he's ever seen from a makeup standpoint, with top-of-the-scale arrogance, a disturbingly large sense of entitlement, and on-field behavior that includes taunting opponents. "He's just a bad, bad guy," said one front-office official. "He's basically the anti-Joe Mauer." How this plays into the negotiation or future evaluation is yet to be determined, as history has shown us that the bigger talent a player is, the more makeup issues teams will deal with. Bench players can't afford to be problems, but plenty of teams happily put up with difficult superstars.
 
Make no mistake, these are all very real issues, but as of today none of them is keeping Washington from selecting Harper with the first pick on June 7. He's hardly "Baseball's LeBron," he's simply a unique player, and one who happens to be the most talented player in this draft by a wide margin.


Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #251: April 23, 2010, 09:35:25 AM »
We're building a good thing here.

Character > Talent for the 1st pick here.

Hell, maybe we should take a mulligan and pick up two picks for 2011.

Online The Chief

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #252: April 23, 2010, 09:37:28 AM »
Hell, maybe we should take a mulligan and pick up two picks for 2011.

I would have to shut down the forum or the chorus of LAC battle cries would tear a hole in space-time.

Offline Obed_Marsh

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #253: April 23, 2010, 09:43:00 AM »
Quote
One scout called him among the worst amateur players he's ever seen from a makeup standpoint, with top-of-the-scale arrogance, a disturbingly large sense of entitlement, and on-field behavior that includes taunting opponents. "He's just a bad, bad guy," said one front-office official. "He's basically the anti-Joe Mauer."

:?

I think I just became apathetic regarding his being signed.

Online blue911

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #254: April 23, 2010, 09:45:25 AM »
If you're going to do a character assassination on a 17 year old, have the balls to put your name on it.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #255: April 23, 2010, 09:47:13 AM »
If you're going to do a character assassination on a 17 year old, have the balls to put your name on it.

Sincerely,
a Pirates' official.

Offline CJames0569

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #256: April 23, 2010, 11:22:06 AM »
A couple interesting takes on Harper in the last few days. I agree that the kid is still young and his make-up at this point should be considered but not overstated. I have confidence that as he matures in age, and no longer is the most talented player on the field his ego and character will take a turn for the better. If they don't he will quickly be reminded by the veterans where his place is and if Rizzo and Co. still aren't able to straighten him out then there is no reason why we can't trade him for several prospects.

Also from Goldstein's article that's the first mention I've heard about concerns over his body size and the type of player he could grow into. If he continues to grow and approaches Dunn's size, I think that it really limits his potential if he isn't able to play behind the plate. Would that make him more of an average 1st baseman or could he still play the OF, perhaps a corner position? Doesn't he have a pretty good arm?

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #257: April 23, 2010, 11:26:58 AM »
We're building a good thing here.

Character > Talent for the 1st pick here.

Hell, maybe we should take a mulligan and pick up two picks for 2011.

Interesting, wonder if a team ever drafted an unsignable guy on purpose?

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #258: April 23, 2010, 11:55:41 AM »
While I'd be perfectly fine with it... I think Chief is right... he'd have to shut down the board due to a massive black hole of LAC sucking the universe into itself.

Offline daggerrrrrr

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #259: April 25, 2010, 12:19:29 AM »
For those who haven't seen it. Here is the infamous Bryce Harper HR he hit against Western Nevada College and while he circled the bases, he give his opponents a salute on the way home. I really don't have a problem with it like other people do.

 

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #260: April 25, 2010, 12:39:21 AM »
Pretty lame if you ask me.

He needs to grow up.

Offline daggerrrrrr

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #261: April 25, 2010, 01:07:28 AM »
Pretty lame if you ask me.

He needs to grow up.
They said Western Nevada and their fans was taunting him the whole game(and it was a doubleheader). So I can understand why a 17 year old would react that way. Now if he was 22, then he should know better.

Offline NatsTheFats

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #262: April 25, 2010, 01:34:59 AM »
A couple interesting takes on Harper in the last few days. I agree that the kid is still young and his make-up at this point should be considered but not overstated. I have confidence that as he matures in age, and no longer is the most talented player on the field his ego and character will take a turn for the better. If they don't he will quickly be reminded by the veterans where his place is and if Rizzo and Co. still aren't able to straighten him out then there is no reason why we can't trade him for several prospects.

I agree.  I read one article, it might be the same as the one quoted above, that said "what 17 yr old isn't an arrogant SOB?"  Once he gets thrown in with the pro's he will quickly realize that even though he is young and has potential, he has a lot to learn.  And if he doesn't and comes up to the majors when he's 19, I can put up with an ass if he means "W"s.  It's the price of winning baby!

That being said, I would be too distraught if the nats go for a more developed college player that can help us now...

Offline houston-nat

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #263: April 25, 2010, 02:41:20 AM »
It's like the difference between being the smartest guy at your high school and the dumbest guy at your university. Some people never learn. But most people do. Fast.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #264: April 25, 2010, 07:27:57 AM »
For those who haven't seen it. Here is the infamous Bryce Harper HR he hit against Western Nevada College and while he circled the bases, he give his opponents a salute on the way home. I really don't have a problem with it like other people do.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDfxkpiXnCQ&playnext_from=TL&videos=5RxEGfMW8G0&feature=grec  


Yeah I really don't have a problem with that there either.  You see that kinda stuff at all levels.  Looked like just playing around imo.

Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #265: April 25, 2010, 09:29:06 AM »
Who filmed that clip? Darth Vader?


Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #266: April 25, 2010, 11:46:22 AM »
Yeah I really don't have a problem with that there either.  You see that kinda stuff at all levels.  Looked like just playing around imo.

Show me a major leaguer that salutes the other team after hitting a home run.

I'll show you a major leaguer with a broken skull.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #267: April 25, 2010, 11:49:19 AM »
Over the weekend, Harper hit 4 HR, 2B, and 2 SB. He is now hitting .410/.497/.917 with 21 HR and 15 SB in 47 games. In Conference play, his OPS is 1.577 with 17 HR and a perfect 12-12 in SB. Who cares if he is a bad guy. Just draft him.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #268: April 25, 2010, 11:53:19 AM »
Show me a major leaguer that salutes the other team after hitting a home run.

I'll show you a major leaguer with a broken skull.

playing to other teams crowds ... hmmm nyjer morgan does it all the time for one.

in basketball you'll see someone hit a three pointer than point to the crowd to shhhh (vasquez does it).

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #269: April 25, 2010, 11:54:11 AM »
I agree.  I read one article, it might be the same as the one quoted above, that said "what 17 yr old isn't an arrogant SOB?"  Once he gets thrown in with the pro's he will quickly realize that even though he is young and has potential, he has a lot to learn.

Yeah because that happens with every player! :hammer:

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #270: April 25, 2010, 12:03:52 PM »
playing to other teams crowds ... hmmm nyjer morgan does it all the time for one.

in basketball you'll see someone hit a three pointer than point to the crowd to shhhh (vasquez does it).

And what do other teams fans deservedly think of that little nag Vasquez?

Exactly.

Offline daggerrrrrr

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #271: April 25, 2010, 12:09:38 PM »
Lintyfresh85, I take it you don't want the Nats to draft him?

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #272: April 25, 2010, 12:11:37 PM »
And what do other teams fans deservedly think of that little nag Vasquez?

Exactly.

yeah and vasquez was one of the greatest basketball players in the nation this year and led his team to a pretty good season and became one of the most fan favorite and best players in maryland history.  he has fun out there.  you ask other teams fans they say they love him or hate him but they respect him. 

i think harper will be fine.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #273: April 25, 2010, 12:18:13 PM »
Lintyfresh85, I take it you don't want the Nats to draft him?

I'm fine with drafting him, or not drafting him.

I'll gladly support whoever the team takes.

yeah and vasquez was one of the greatest basketball players in the nation this year and led his team to a pretty good season and became one of the most fan favorite and best players in maryland history.  he has fun out there.  you ask other teams fans they say they love him or hate him but they respect him. 


I don't respect him.

Offline JMW IV

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Re: The Bryce Harper Watch
« Reply #274: April 25, 2010, 03:31:54 PM »
Draft Harper if he is the best player in the draft.

period. there is no excuse other than not wanting to pay him.

alot of these anonymous people trying to put the kid down are probably from teams who have the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th picks.