Author Topic: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed  (Read 5956 times)

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Offline sportsfan882

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arroyo fits the profile of an innings eater.  he had some success the second half of the year. he's expensive.  I like Willingham a lot for this team.  I would not part with him, but might be interested in Arroyo if the Nats would send a lesser player and eat more cash.
Why must we have an innings eater on the staff who sucks?

Offline wisefan11

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Guzman for Arroyo. Nats kick in money as needed.

Offline PatsNats28

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Guzman for Arroyo. Nats kick in money as needed.

fine by me

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Why must we have an innings eater on the staff who sucks?

I take this as progress, SF.  At least you don't disagree that a guy who has gone 200 or more innings each of the last 5 years, and 178 the year before when he was a 5th starter, is an innings eater.

Here are his ERA, K/9, K/BB, FIP, ERA+ (from B-R) and FIP (from Fangrpahs) for each season he has been a regular starter:
        ERA    K/9    K/BB   ERA+  WHIP   FIP
2004: 4.03    7.2   3.02   121     1.22   3.82
2005: 4.51    4.4   1.85   100     1.30   4.43
2006: 3.29    6.9   2.88   142     1.19   4.15
2007: 4.23    6.7   2.48   110     1.40   4.57
2008: 4.77    7.3   2.40     95     1.44   4.50
2009: 3.84    5.2   1.95   115     1.27    4.78

All:     4.23    6.1  2.22    109     1.33    4.44

he did get some luck on BABIP this year (.268) after bad luck the prior two years (.313. / .321).  Career BABIP .293. 
Looking at these numbers, ERA and BABIP for 4 out of the last 6 years, WHIP, ERA+ and FIP look Lannanesque.  That might be good, or it might suck, as you say. 

He'll be 33 next year, and, as blue says, might be a special brownie away from flunking a drug test.

Compare him to Garland:  same number of seasons, Garland has a higher ERA, higher WHIP, lower ERA+, lower k/9, worse K/BB.  Garland is two years younger and but has more innings (400) because he has been a starter for 2.5 more years (more wear).

Offline JMW IV

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Guzman for Arroyo. Nats kick in money as needed.

yeah, that'll work for me.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Arroyo has 1 year at $11m, and an option for $11m with a $2m buyout, so would be a $13m commitment.  Garland is a free agent likely to get a 3 year, $25m+ contract, or more.

Offline NatsDad14

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I take this as progress, SF.  At least you don't disagree that a guy who has gone 200 or more innings each of the last 5 years, and 178 the year before when he was a 5th starter, is an innings eater.

Here are his ERA, K/9, K/BB, FIP, ERA+ (from B-R) and FIP (from Fangrpahs) for each season he has been a regular starter:
        ERA    K/9    K/BB   ERA+  WHIP   FIP
2004: 4.03    7.2   3.02   121     1.22   3.82
2005: 4.51    4.4   1.85   100     1.30   4.43
2006: 3.29    6.9   2.88   142     1.19   4.15
2007: 4.23    6.7   2.48   110     1.40   4.57
2008: 4.77    7.3   2.40     95     1.44   4.50
2009: 3.84    5.2   1.95   115     1.27    4.78

All:     4.23    6.1  2.22    109     1.33    4.44

he did get some luck on BABIP this year (.268) after bad luck the prior two years (.313. / .321).  Career BABIP .293. 
Looking at these numbers, ERA and BABIP for 4 out of the last 6 years, WHIP, ERA+ and FIP look Lannanesque.  That might be good, or it might suck, as you say. 

He'll be 33 next year, and, as blue says, might be a special brownie away from flunking a drug test.

Compare him to Garland:  same number of seasons, Garland has a higher ERA, higher WHIP, lower ERA+, lower k/9, worse K/BB.  Garland is two years younger and but has more innings (400) because he has been a starter for 2.5 more years (more wear).

I don't want Garland at all. We might as well give Martin a shot at starting if think about Garland because Martin is a younger version of Jon Garland.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I'm not wild about Garland either.  I just put him up because some say he is plan B if we cannot get Lackey or Wolf.

Offline PatsNats28

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Arroyo has 1 year at $11m, and an option for $11m with a $2m buyout, so would be a $13m commitment.  Garland is a free agent likely to get a 3 year, $25m+ contract, or more.

guzman for arroyo + 5 mil?

Offline blue911

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I'm not wild about Garland either.  I just put him up because some say he is plan B if we cannot get Lackey or Wolf.

I think Wolf is a better fit. I think Lackey would be in St. E's by May if he signed here.

Offline doubler

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #160: November 04, 2009, 10:23:33 AM »
I think Wolf is a better fit. I think Lackey would be in St. E's by May if he signed here.

Doesnt Wolf want to stick to the West coast? I thought that was the scuttlebutt last year when he was a FA??

Offline CALSGR8

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #161: November 04, 2009, 11:41:32 AM »
Livo wants to play here!   :o

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #162: November 04, 2009, 11:51:57 AM »
LACKEY or bust!

haha i know we're not giving him 80-100 mil, so let's get two of wolf/pineiro/webb/penny/garland/sheets/etc.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #163: November 04, 2009, 01:37:05 PM »
Doubler - Poking around on MLBTradeRumors, it does not look like there is anythign recent saying the dodgers are a lock to resign Wolf.  He's supposed to have a west coast preference.  There's one linked article with a subhead suggesting they'll let him go, but the body of the article just expresses that as a contingency (i.e., they will need the kids to step up if Wolf and Hudson aren't coming back).
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dodgers24-2009oct24,0,7466384.story

This entry speculates that it might take 3 years $40 to sign him and wonders who will do that.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/discussion-randy-wolf.html

Offline doubler

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #164: November 04, 2009, 02:21:00 PM »
Doubler - Poking around on MLBTradeRumors, it does not look like there is anythign recent saying the dodgers are a lock to resign Wolf.  He's supposed to have a west coast preference.  There's one linked article with a subhead suggesting they'll let him go, but the body of the article just expresses that as a contingency (i.e., they will need the kids to step up if Wolf and Hudson aren't coming back).
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dodgers24-2009oct24,0,7466384.story

This entry speculates that it might take 3 years $40 to sign him and wonders who will do that.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/discussion-randy-wolf.html

I think they would be crazy not to resign him....he did very good for them this year...

3 years 40 million is kinda steep for him, especially for a team like ours that really isnt going to be contending for a few years....will be interesting to see if he really gets that, especially considering his past injury history.

Offline wisefan11

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #165: November 04, 2009, 02:38:45 PM »
Erik Bedard could be a good fit as he's familiar with the area from his days in B-more.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #166: November 04, 2009, 03:31:48 PM »
Erik Bedard could be a good fit as he's familiar with the area from his days in B-more.

Physically unreliable, doesn't seem to actually like pitching, and generally considered a clubhouse sourpuss.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #167: November 04, 2009, 04:58:09 PM »
Physically unreliable, doesn't seem to actually like pitching, and generally considered a clubhouse sourpuss.

So sign him to a short-term, make good contract that allows him to go FA next year if he shows he can pitch.  Guarantee him $5 - 8 million, with a few more incentives.  If he's successful, trade him for prospects or offer him arbitration if he is a compensation type.

Do the same for Duchscherer, and for a total outlay of $10 - $12 million, you get at least one guy who gives you #1-#2 quality when healthy (Duchscherer that good when healthy?  What part of a 2.48 ERA is bad?).  Then bring back Livo and / or Arroyo for the back end or middle of the rotation, and be extremely happy if the front guys stay healthy.

Offline Nathan

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #168: November 04, 2009, 06:49:41 PM »
LACKEY or bust!

haha i know we're not giving him 80-100 mil, so let's get two of wolf/pineiro/webb/penny/garland/sheets/etc.
That would be nice.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #169: November 04, 2009, 08:21:54 PM »
Pedro Martinez?

Offline PatsNats28

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #170: November 04, 2009, 09:02:42 PM »
i doubt he'd want to come here. some team will give him two years, 12 mil.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #171: November 05, 2009, 12:56:08 PM »
garland was declined '10 option by dodgers

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #172: November 05, 2009, 01:08:29 PM »
I'm not sure Pedro could be an effective starter in a rotation.  I also doubt he'd be willing to move to the pen, where I think he could probably be pretty good.  Otherwise, he's just a spot starter over the course of a whole season.  He needs more than 5 days at this point to give  you a good outing.

Offline NatsDad14

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #173: November 05, 2009, 01:59:55 PM »
garland was declined '10 option by dodgers

I would much rather have JD Martin than Garland.

Offline Spinman

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Re: Look to 2010: Frontline Starting Pitcher Needed
« Reply #174: November 05, 2009, 02:02:48 PM »
Why must we have an innings eater on the staff who sucks?
Another Red?  I like him, but...
 I hope Lackey or Wolf.

Lannan ( 500,000) is a lock, They will think Hernandez( 1,000,000) is our Pedro, so he's in. Olsen ( 2.5 million), Balester ( 401,000), Mock (410,000), Detwiler ( 401,000), Strasburg, Martin (500,000), Martis (401,000), Stammen (400,000), J Zimmermann ( DL) will be where the last two starters will come from.
 That frees up 6-12  million,  per for a FA or two.

I also think the starters will want to pitch like #3 starters after what the Yankees did. #4-#5 starters are just to get you in the show but you won't get to pitch in WS if you make it.