Author Topic: Aaron Thompson  (Read 1829 times)

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Offline NatsAddict

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Aaron Thompson
« Topic Start: August 04, 2009, 11:59:01 AM »
Here is Baseball America's latest (July 31) scouting report on Thompson:

Quote
The 2005 draft's 22nd overall pick, Thompson signed for $1.225 million out of a Houston-area high school. The 22-year-old possessed the best changeup in the Marlins system, but that did not prevent him from moving slowly up the chain. In his repeat of Double-A this season, he was 5-9, 4.11 through 20 starts for Jacksonville. He struck out 75 and walked 43 over 114 innings. Thompson dealt with minor shoulder issues in 2008 that cost him two months of the season. In 16 starts with Double-A Carolina last season, he went 2-5, 5.62 with 53 strikeouts in 82 innings. He allowed 111 hits and walked 40.

Thompson throws a fastball in the 88-91 mph range to go along with a good slider, a serviceable curveball and the aforementioned change. He has a great pick-off move to first base, too. Thompson's ability to keep the ball in the park (0.55 home runs per nine this season) and on the ground bodes well for his future. He has the ability to command all of his pitches, and improving his command will help him reach his ceiling as a back-end starter.

Baseball America

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #1: August 04, 2009, 12:06:32 PM »
Another back-end starter type.

It's good to have those types if we want to bump our win total from 60's to high 70's but it's not going to put this team over the hump.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #2: August 04, 2009, 12:27:32 PM »
How can they say he moved slowly through their system?! :bang:

He's 22 and in AA. right on schedule.


Offline NatsAddict

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #3: August 04, 2009, 12:56:50 PM »
How can they say he moved slowly through their system?! :bang:

He's 22 and in AA. right on schedule.



It took him 4 seasons to reach AA, and it's now his 5th year of pro ball.  That's a snails pace, especially for a high pick.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #4: August 04, 2009, 01:02:31 PM »
It took him 4 seasons to reach AA, and it's now his 5th year of pro ball.  That's a snails pace, especially for a high pick.

Wasn't he drafted out of high school?  4 years seems about right to me.

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #5: August 04, 2009, 01:17:16 PM »
Wasn't he drafted out of high school?  4 years seems about right to me.

Regardless of when you are drafted, you should make steady progress.  A high pick, regardless of age, should see some time in AA by the end of his 2nd year of pro ball, and first rounders are usually expected to be decent enough to qualify for a September call-up after 2 years and not later than 3 years.  Anyone who treads water and makes no progress at low levels for 3 years is often released.  If he had been a low pick, which is what it turns out he should have been, he would have probably been released.  But, since there was $1.2 million tied up in him, he was given a 2nd and 3rd chance.

All that said, I rate him a bit better than most scouts.  I think he'll need to spend 2010 in the minors, but may make a bottom rotation starter in 2011.  He'll still only be 24, and more like a mediocre college pitcher.  It will take him a couple more years, and he'll be 26 or 27 when he starts pitching his best and, I believe, may make a mid-rotation starter (though virtually all scouts disagree, topping him out as a low rotation guy).

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #6: August 04, 2009, 03:24:08 PM »
Regardless of when you are drafted, you should make steady progress.  A high pick, regardless of age, should see some time in AA by the end of his 2nd year of pro ball, and first rounders are usually expected to be decent enough to qualify for a September call-up after 2 years and not later than 3 years.  

That's pretty aggressive.  If a high schooler is in rookie ball (NY-Penn) his second year, that's not too slow.  At the start of this year, I think there were 2 19 year olds in the Carolina league - Moustakas and I forget.  There were 7 same age as Marrero (20, turning 21 during the seaosn).  22 in AA is not that old.  League average age for the Eastern League at the start of the year was 24+.

[edit - Moustakas is 2 months younger than Marrero.  he was 20 in April]

Offline NFA Brian

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #7: August 04, 2009, 03:40:56 PM »
Using the Nationals affiliates as a guide ... a good rule of thumb is a HS player spends his draft year in the GCL (~18 yrs old).

Ideally a start in Vermont in year two with the potential of a late season bump to Hagerstown if the player is a hitter (makes sense to give pitchers more time, espeically a young one). (~19 yrs old)

It's in that second full season (or third year) that the jump should take place for a first round draft pick. The premium guys may go to Potomac to start year three but it's also not unusual for them to start year three in Hagerstown and work their way to Potomac mid-season. If they are being cautious, a full season in Hagerstown is not out of the question (~20 yrs old)

In the fourth year, if they didn't make it Potomac, they should be there to start. And the goal is to be in Harrisburg by the end of the season. (~21 yrs old)

At that point, they still have one season until they would need to be added to the 40-man or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft.

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #8: August 04, 2009, 06:49:21 PM »
Other first round HS players from the 2005 draft (he was in the same draft and round as Ryan Zimmerman):

Jason Upton - MLB since 2007
Cameron Maybin - AA with September callup 2007, MLB in 2008 & start of 2009, currently in AAA
Andrew McCutchen - AA 2006, AAA 2007, MLB 2009
Jay Bruce - AA & AAA in 2007, MLB since 2008
Brandon Snyder - AA & AAA in 2009
Christopher Volstad - AA 2007, MLB since 2008
Carl Henry - Released early in 2008
Mark Pawelek - A+ 2009
Colby Rasmus - AA 2007, AAA 2008, MLB 2009

Other than Henry, who was released during 2008 after 20 games in 2008, Thompson is pretty well behind all but Pawelek, who is is putting a patent on slow development.



Offline GMUNat

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #9: August 04, 2009, 06:51:32 PM »
Jason Upton - MLB since 2007
Cameron Maybin - AA with September callup 2007, MLB in 2008 & start of 2009, currently in AAA
Andrew McCutchen - AA 2006, AAA 2007, MLB 2009
Jay Bruce - AA & AAA in 2007, MLB since 2008
Brandon Snyder - AA & AAA in 2009
Christopher Volstad - AA 2007, MLB since 2008
Carl Henry - Released early in 2008
Mark Pawelek - A+ 2009
Colby Rasmus - AA 2007, AAA 2008, MLB 2009

 :evil:

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #10: August 04, 2009, 06:54:20 PM »
That draft class was insane.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #11: August 04, 2009, 10:27:48 PM »
WHo is Jason Upton?  Man, there sure are a lot of Uptons.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #12: August 05, 2009, 12:32:41 AM »
Regardless of when you are drafted, you should make steady progress.  A high pick, regardless of age, should see some time in AA by the end of his 2nd year of pro ball
That's completely absurd, and you're also obscuring the very stark contrast between a 22nd overall pick and a top ten pick.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #13: August 05, 2009, 12:54:08 AM »
WHo is Jason Upton?  Man, there sure are a lot of Uptons.

I'm sure you're joking... but I'm pretty sure he meant Justin.

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #14: August 05, 2009, 11:20:57 AM »
That's completely absurd, and you're also obscuring the very stark contrast between a 22nd overall pick and a top ten pick.

Oh, so only top 10s should make progress?  No, every pick, from every round is expected to make progress every year.  Hopefully, the progress is enough to move up a level, and, if not, to move up a level every 18-24 months, especially from A.  If you spend more than 2 calendar years at A or lower, there is little chance of you ever making it to MLB, 3 years and its virtually none.  If you still beat the odds and do eventually get there, it's usually a short utility career.

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #15: August 05, 2009, 11:36:25 AM »
I'm sure you're joking... but I'm pretty sure he meant Justin.

Yep.  My bad.  Sorry.

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #16: August 05, 2009, 11:22:40 PM »
Not a great debut with the Nats organization, Aaron.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #17: August 05, 2009, 11:28:53 PM »
Not a great debut with the Nats organization, Aaron.
it wasn't bad at all. gave up 4 hits and 3 runs in the 1st but cruised after that.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #18: August 05, 2009, 11:29:06 PM »
It's one inning. Go to sleep, junior.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #19: August 06, 2009, 12:03:58 AM »
it wasn't bad at all. gave up 4 hits and 3 runs in the 1st but cruised after that.

if it were justin jones you'd be calling him a bum.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Aaron Thompson
« Reply #20: August 06, 2009, 11:23:11 AM »
Oh, so only top 10s should make progress?  No, every pick, from every round is expected to make progress every year.  Hopefully, the progress is enough to move up a level, and, if not, to move up a level every 18-24 months, especially from A.  If you spend more than 2 calendar years at A or lower, there is little chance of you ever making it to MLB, 3 years and its virtually none.  If you still beat the odds and do eventually get there, it's usually a short utility career.
I agree that progress is to be expected, but I think the logical progression is rookie ball, low A, high A.  That's three years.  Typically, they end up skipping short-season A ball, which is a huge jump already.  Not only do they have to adjust to players who are more refined than those who are drafted right out of college, but they have to play in front of crowds of ~5,000 and adjust to a full season schedule.  We've seen it chew up Josh Smoker and Jack McGeary already.  So on top of that, you expect them to just breeze through higher A ball and make it to AA?

I understand that the more easily you're able to advance, the more likely you are to have a great pro career, but those are lofty expectations, and it certainly isn't a necessity for that to happen in order for someone to become a successful pro.