Author Topic: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3  (Read 6610 times)

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Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #25: July 29, 2009, 04:55:28 PM »
You realize this is baseball, right?
what are the odds that we beat them 3 days in a row in their park? slim to zero.

I would be stunned if the Brewers didn't win the next 2 days to gain a split to predictably end the series.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #26: July 29, 2009, 04:56:41 PM »
Bard: 360.2 innings, 30 SB attempts (1 attempt every 12 innings)

Nieves: 312 innings, 26 SB attempts (1 attempt every 12 innings)

Bard: 25 CS%
Nieves: 24 CS%

Bard: 4 errors, 3 Passed balls
Nieves: 4 errors, 2 passed balls

They are the exact same catcher on the basepaths.

You facts mean nothing to me.  The only ones that count are the ones in my mind.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #27: July 29, 2009, 04:57:13 PM »
it's not even close. Bard is a horrible baseball player.

We are a much better team with Nieves starting. Nieves is a perfectly suitable back-up catcher. Bard is a bum that is lucky to have a job on a ML roster.

wow.  do you read what you write.  you drool over nieves, but yet you bash bard.  look at the numbers.  how can you hate on one dude so much when he has similar numbers (if not better).  amazing.

nieves - .262 avg, 0 hr, 15 rbi, .309 obp, .310 slg, 2 passed balls, 4 errors, 5.08 cERA, .235 CS% in 41 games

bard - .255 avg, 1 hr, 19 rbi, .329 obp, .353 slg, 3 passed balls, 4 errors, 4.82 cERA, .250 CS% in 51 games

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #28: July 29, 2009, 04:57:37 PM »
You facts mean nothing to me.  The only ones that count are the ones in my mind.

pwnage.  total pwnage.

tomterp just pwned ya sf.  hardcore.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #29: July 29, 2009, 04:59:45 PM »
what are the odds that we beat them 3 days in a row in their park? slim to zero.

I would be stunned if the Brewers didn't win the next 2 days to gain a split to predictably end the series.
Not good, but that's not the point.  The seemingly everyday claims that we have no chance are just funny to me.  that's all.  Baseball's a strange game. 

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #30: July 29, 2009, 05:00:49 PM »
wow.  do you read what you write.  you drool over nieves, but yet you bash bard.  look at the numbers.  how can you hate on one dude so much when he has similar numbers (if not better).  amazing.

nieves - .262 avg, 0 hr, 15 rbi, .309 obp, .310 slg, 2 passed balls, 4 errors, 5.08 cERA, .235 CS% in 41 games

bard - .255 avg, 1 hr, 19 rbi, .329 obp, .353 slg, 3 passed balls, 4 errors, 4.82 cERA, .250 CS% in 51 games

freak the stats. you watch every game don't you? Bard is the far worse player. The passed ball stats are clearly wrong. There is no way in hell that he has only 3 passed balls all year. no way. That is just false. I remember several games where he had 2-3 passed balls in 1 game.

what is our record with Bard starting and with Nieves starting?

Offline tomterp

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #31: July 29, 2009, 05:03:16 PM »
what are the odds that we beat them 3 days in a row in their park? slim to zero.

I would be stunned if the Brewers didn't win the next 2 days to gain a split to predictably end the series.

 :roll:

The odds you beat them 3 in a row,  having already beaten them 2 in a row, are excellent as compared to the odds before the series starts.

If you assume that the Brewers should win 60% of the games between the two teams, then the odds of the Nats winning tonight or any other single game in the series are 40%.  Feel free to adjust the % to your liking, the math works in the same way regardless.

If you asked if the Nats could win 3 in a row before the start of the series, the odds would have been 40% to the 3rd power, or 6.4%.  However, as already observed, the Nats no longer have to win 3 straight.  They only have to win one. 



Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #32: July 29, 2009, 05:03:28 PM »
freak the stats. you watch every game don't you? Bard is the far worse player. The passed ball stats are clearly wrong. There is no way in hell that he has only 3 passed balls all year. no way. That is just false. I remember several games where he had 2-3 passed balls in 1 game.

what is our record with Bard starting and with Nieves starting?

that's what the stats say.  i love how stats don't matter when they are in favor of one of the dudes you hate, yet they count when it comes to a player you love.

it's just like with bernadina.  everyone on here and their mom knows nyjer morgan is a better player and he has better stats at the major league level, but you get all defensive when someone says he isn't going to be our centerfielder. 

c'mon dude, crap works both ways. 

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #33: July 29, 2009, 05:06:47 PM »
:roll:

The odds you beat them 3 in a row,  having already beaten them 2 in a row, are excellent as compared to the odds before the series starts.

If you assume that the Brewers should win 60% of the games between the two teams, then the odds of the Nats winning tonight or any other single game in the series are 40%.  Feel free to adjust the % to your liking, the math works in the same way regardless.

If you asked if the Nats could win 3 in a row before the start of the series, the odds would have been 40% to the 3rd power, or 6.4%.  However, as already observed, the Nats no longer have to win 3 straight.  They only have to win one. 

Shh, sportsfan doesn't understand smart people.

"I've made up my mind already. Don't confuse me with the facts."
- Nixon-backing congressman during Watergate

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #34: July 29, 2009, 05:08:16 PM »
:roll:

The odds you beat them 3 in a row,  having already beaten them 2 in a row, are excellent as compared to the odds before the series starts.

If you assume that the Brewers should win 60% of the games between the two teams, then the odds of the Nats winning tonight or any other single game in the series are 40%.  Feel free to adjust the % to your liking, the math works in the same way regardless.

If you asked if the Nats could win 3 in a row before the start of the series, the odds would have been 40% to the 3rd power, or 6.4%.  However, as already observed, the Nats no longer have to win 3 straight.  They only have to win one. 



so what are their odds that they win 1 more game? still 6.4%.

The more games the Brewers lose to the Nats the greater the chance is that they win the next game. The Brewers should likely win tonight but if not I would bet the farm on them winning tomorrow with their ace on the mound against our starter who has only made 2 starts in the Majors.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #35: July 29, 2009, 05:10:19 PM »
so what are their odds that they win 1 more game? still 6.4%.


So, if Lance Armstrong pedals 2/3 the way up a mountain, then the last 1/3 is going to be just as hard as if he started over again at the bottom?

That's exactly what you're saying, by analogy.

Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #36: July 29, 2009, 05:11:39 PM »
I say we flip a coin to determine who is right.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #37: July 29, 2009, 05:12:10 PM »
The more games the Brewers lose to the Nats the greater the chance is that they win the next game. The Brewers should likely win tonight but if not I would bet the farm on them winning tomorrow with their ace on the mound against our starter who has only made 2 starts in the Majors.


No, I've proven this to you repeatedly, I've provided independent on-line sources for you to read, and you continue to cling to your quaint, ignorant misunderstandings as if the truth were revealed only to you.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #38: July 29, 2009, 05:13:09 PM »
I say we flip a coin to determine who is right.

 :nono:

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #39: July 29, 2009, 05:17:46 PM »
So, if Lance Armstrong pedals 2/3 the way up a mountain, then the last 1/3 is going to be just as hard as if he started over again at the bottom?

That's exactly what you're saying, by analogy.
that's not exactly what I was saying. At the start of the series I would have ranked in terms of what is most likely to occur:

-Split
-Brewers win 3 of 4
-Nationals win 3 of 4
-Brewers sweep
-Nats sweep

Just because we won the first two doesn't mean that the series still won't likely be a split. The order in which we got the wins didn't make a difference. a split is a split is a split.

No, I've proven this to you repeatedly, I've provided independent on-line sources for you to read, and you continue to cling to your quaint, ignorant misunderstandings as if the truth were revealed only to you.
The Brewers' chances of winning have gone up after the loss on Monday and again after the loss last night. They have a really high chance of winning tonight just based on pure odds but if they somehow pull off a miracle and lose again then tomorrow's game might as well not even be played because they would win that game in that scenario unquestionably.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #40: July 29, 2009, 05:20:27 PM »
I say we flip a coin to determine who is right.



Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #41: July 29, 2009, 05:20:32 PM »
So how come the Nats chances don't go up during say a five or six game losing streak or a four games series against the Cubs?

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #42: July 29, 2009, 05:29:19 PM »
:roll:

The odds you beat them 3 in a row,  having already beaten them 2 in a row, are excellent as compared to the odds before the series starts.

If you assume that the Brewers should win 60% of the games between the two teams, then the odds of the Nats winning tonight or any other single game in the series are 40%.  Feel free to adjust the % to your liking, the math works in the same way regardless.

If you asked if the Nats could win 3 in a row before the start of the series, the odds would have been 40% to the 3rd power, or 6.4%.  However, as already observed, the Nats no longer have to win 3 straight.  They only have to win one. 





*sigh* You'll never get through, Tom. Of course, numbers aside, there is a psychological factor, as no one likes to get swept.

But let's use the "Let's Make a Deal" issue to illustrate things:

http://www.dcity.org/braingames/3doors/index.htm

There are 3 doors. Two have goats behind them, another has a brand new car.

You pick door #2. Monty Hall shows you that door #1 has a goat behind it. Should you stick with door #2 or switch two door #3?

The answer is that switching is a better bet.

Sportsfan, your homework is to figure out why :lol:

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #43: July 29, 2009, 05:31:56 PM »
PS the explanations the guy has for his game are TERRIBLE

Much better:
http://www.cartalk.com/content/puzzler/Monty/proof.html

Offline tomterp

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #44: July 29, 2009, 05:33:58 PM »
The Brewers' chances of winning have gone up after the loss on Monday No, they have notand again after the loss last night again, no change at all to their chances of winning. They have a really high chance of winning tonight just based on pure odds No, you obviously think that odds affect the likelihood of outcomes, but you have it backwards.but if they somehow pull off a miracle and lose again then tomorrow's game might as well not even be played because they would win that game in that scenario unquestionably. This is the height of absurdity

My comments in red.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #45: July 29, 2009, 05:38:43 PM »
*sigh* You'll never get through, Tom. Of course, numbers aside, there is a psychological factor, as no one likes to get swept.

Probabilities have no power at all.  They are like stats, they are a way to measure things and predict the likelihood of potential outcomes.  But they DO NOT influence real events.  To the contrary, REAL EVENTS are what count, and they in turn drive probabilities.

The lineup you field, the pitchers you have going for you, the opposition's personnel, even psychological factors, affect the odds. The odds don't affect the odds, that's just silly.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #46: July 29, 2009, 05:41:28 PM »
If anything the Brewers are even LESS likely to win because of the psychological trauma of losing a combined 22-9 to the Nationals.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #47: July 29, 2009, 05:50:31 PM »
If anything the Brewers are even LESS likely to win because of the psychological trauma of losing a combined 22-9 to the Nationals.

Remember all those warning track flyouts Bally served up last night?  If Mock serves up similar pitches tonights, the odds fairy is likely to give them that extra push, right over the fence.  Damn that sucks for Mock. 

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #48: July 29, 2009, 05:53:02 PM »
Probabilities have no power at all.  They are like stats, they are a way to measure things and predict the likelihood of potential outcomes.  But they DO NOT influence real events.  To the contrary, REAL EVENTS are what count, and they in turn drive probabilities.

The lineup you field, the pitchers you have going for you, the opposition's personnel, even psychological factors, affect the odds. The odds don't affect the odds, that's just silly.
Odds stole my lunch money once.

You are right on, but people see the Monty Hall problem and think that some magic happens after the goat is revealed.

Offline bklynnats

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #49: July 29, 2009, 05:53:24 PM »
(CF) Morgan
(SS) Guzman
(LF) Willingham
(3B) Zimmerman
(1B) Johnson

:clap:

(2B) Belliard
(RF) Kearns

:spaz: