Author Topic: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3  (Read 12769 times)

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Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #25: July 29, 2009, 05:08:16 PM »

The odds you beat them 3 in a row,  having already beaten them 2 in a row, are excellent as compared to the odds before the series starts.

If you assume that the Brewers should win 60% of the games between the two teams, then the odds of the Nats winning tonight or any other single game in the series are 40%.  Feel free to adjust the % to your liking, the math works in the same way regardless.

If you asked if the Nats could win 3 in a row before the start of the series, the odds would have been 40% to the 3rd power, or 6.4%.  However, as already observed, the Nats no longer have to win 3 straight.  They only have to win one. 

so what are their odds that they win 1 more game? still 6.4%.

The more games the Brewers lose to the Nats the greater the chance is that they win the next game. The Brewers should likely win tonight but if not I would bet the farm on them winning tomorrow with their ace on the mound against our starter who has only made 2 starts in the Majors.