Author Topic: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3  (Read 14786 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline tomterp

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 32695
  • Hell yes!
Re: Nationals @ Brewers, Game 3
« Reply #25: July 29, 2009, 05:03:16 PM »
what are the odds that we beat them 3 days in a row in their park? slim to zero.

I would be stunned if the Brewers didn't win the next 2 days to gain a split to predictably end the series.


The odds you beat them 3 in a row,  having already beaten them 2 in a row, are excellent as compared to the odds before the series starts.

If you assume that the Brewers should win 60% of the games between the two teams, then the odds of the Nats winning tonight or any other single game in the series are 40%.  Feel free to adjust the % to your liking, the math works in the same way regardless.

If you asked if the Nats could win 3 in a row before the start of the series, the odds would have been 40% to the 3rd power, or 6.4%.  However, as already observed, the Nats no longer have to win 3 straight.  They only have to win one.