Author Topic: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1  (Read 4834 times)

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Online blue911

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #25: April 24, 2009, 04:22:21 PM »
Santana throws a 4-seamer,change up and curve,right?

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #26: April 24, 2009, 04:23:38 PM »
Santana throws a 4-seamer,change up and curve,right?

Slider instead of the curve.  Fastball sits around 91, change up around 80.

Online blue911

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #27: April 24, 2009, 04:26:57 PM »
Slider instead of the curve.  Fastball sits around 91, change up around 80.

I knew that somebody's freaking with my fingers again.

Online blue911

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #28: April 24, 2009, 04:28:31 PM »
You have any stats handy on him? I think he gets beat on his fastball but I'm guessing.

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #29: April 24, 2009, 04:31:17 PM »
You have any stats handy on him? I think he gets beat on his fastball but I'm guessing.


Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #30: April 24, 2009, 04:37:27 PM »
You have any stats handy on him? I think he gets beat on his fastball but I'm guessing.

Just glancing over the charts from his first three starts, it appears that it is the fastball that gets hit the most.  The slider looks almost unhittable and batters have had little success against the change.  He barely leaves anything up in the strikezone and attacks hitters inside a lot.  It looks like the only way to beat him is to get ahead in the count and let him throw something in the upper 8 inches of the strikezone.

EDIT:  Natsaddict's graph shows it better than me posting 10 different graphs

Online blue911

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #31: April 24, 2009, 04:52:06 PM »
Sounds like, look fastball swing early.

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #32: April 24, 2009, 04:54:11 PM »
The problem is getting ahead in the count.  Out of 20.216 pitches, only 3,801 (19%) have been from behind in the count.  He's the kind against which you need to open up the hitting zone a bit and be more aggressive.  If you try to wait him out, you're K'd.

He has one of the best scatter diagrams of pitch locations we'll ever see.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #33: April 24, 2009, 04:57:33 PM »
The problem is getting ahead in the count.  Out of 20.216 pitches, only 3,801 (19%) have been from behind in the count.  He's the kind against which you need to open up the hitting zone a bit and be more aggressive.  If you try to wait him out, you're K'd.

He has one of the best scatter diagrams of pitch locations we'll ever see.

I have been noticing that as I have looked through the graphs for him.  His consistency and command of the strike zone with each pitch is quite amazing.  It is no wonder he is one of the better pitchers in the league.  He doesn't through his slider much, but it rarely ever is in the strikezone when he does.  By the time he is throwing it, though, he already has the batters guessing.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #34: April 24, 2009, 05:02:57 PM »
Also, looking at the pitchFX data from Olsen's first three starts of the season, I noticed some trends. 

-  Olsen throws three pitches (fastball-slider-change) at a ratio of 60:20:20 respectively.  He has real good life on his fastball (11 vertical, 6 horizontal) and hitters have very little chance at getting a hit off of any of his fastballs with more than 12 inches of break.  Like in his first start, if the fastball is breaking between 8-10 inches then he is in for a bumpy ride.

-  His change up causes him a lot of problems and it may be because as his fastball velocity has dropped over the years, the change's speed has stayed the same.  In the first two starts, he had a lot of trouble keeping his two seamer down, but in his last start it was one of his most effective pitches and stayed in the bottom third of the strikezone the whole time he was on the mound.

-  It doesn't take me looking at graphs to tell any of you that Olsen's main problem has been control and command of his pitches.  He isn't going to be a power pitcher like he was at the beginning of his career, so locating the pitches is key for him.  His walk rate and hit rate are up, indicating (along with the graphs) that he is leaving the balls up at a much higher rate than any other time in his career.

-  It should also be noted, though, that Olsen has a BABIP of .345 that would indicate to me he has been hurt by the defense as well as a fair amount of bad luck.  His BABIP for his career has mostly hovered around .280-.300, so I would expect for him to do more like his last outing more often than his first two.

Online KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #35: April 24, 2009, 05:03:22 PM »
The problem is getting ahead in the count.  Out of 20.216 pitches, only 3,801 (19%) have been from behind in the count.  He's the kind against which you need to open up the hitting zone a bit and be more aggressive.  If you try to wait him out, you're K'd.

He has one of the best scatter diagrams of pitch locations we'll ever see.
That's very true.  Also, he uses that devastating change-up more with two strikes, so you really don't want to get to that point in the count.  You can almost forget about waiting for a mistake up high, as well.

Online sportsfan882

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #36: April 24, 2009, 05:06:36 PM »
Santana has a 14.1 inning scoreless streak. I expect that to extend to 21-22 tonight.

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #37: April 24, 2009, 05:06:55 PM »
Change
That's very true.  Also, he uses that devastating change-up more with two strikes, so you really don't want to get to that point in the count.  You can almost forget about waiting for a mistake up high, as well.

I've always felt change-ups should be illegal.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #38: April 24, 2009, 05:08:32 PM »
That's very true.  Also, he uses that devastating change-up more with two strikes, so you really don't want to get to that point in the count. You can almost forget about waiting for a mistake up high, as well.

Alas, that is the paradox of facing him. 

Either he screws up and the batter capitalizes OR he screws you up.


Offline NatsAddict

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #40: April 24, 2009, 05:11:33 PM »
Santana has a 14.1 inning scoreless streak. I expect that to extend to 21-22 tonight.

That's not scoreless, just no earned runs.  It's only 12 scoreless, because 13 innings ago this happened:

- W. Helms struck out swinging
- D. Uggla struck out swinging  :shock:
- J. Hermida walked
- C. Ross safe at first on left fielder D. Murphy's fielding error, J. Hermida scored, C. Ross to second
- R. Paulino singled to left, C. Ross scored
- J. Johnson struck out swinging

Murphy just simply dropped a routine fly ball.  THAT'S how you beat Santana.

Online sportsfan882

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #41: April 24, 2009, 05:12:56 PM »
That's not scoreless, just no earned runs.  It's only 12 scoreless, because 13 innings ago this happened:

- W. Helms struck out swinging
- D. Uggla struck out swinging  :shock:
- J. Hermida walked
- C. Ross safe at first on left fielder D. Murphy's fielding error, J. Hermida scored, C. Ross to second
- R. Paulino singled to left, C. Ross scored
- J. Johnson struck out swinging

Murphy just simply dropped a routine fly ball.  THAT'S how you beat Santana.
yeah, I remember that game. Santana took the loss that day despite being amazing.

Online blue911

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #42: April 24, 2009, 05:15:26 PM »
That's not scoreless, just no earned runs.  It's only 12 scoreless, because 13 innings ago this happened:

- W. Helms struck out swinging
- D. Uggla struck out swinging  :shock:
- J. Hermida walked
- C. Ross safe at first on left fielder D. Murphy's fielding error, J. Hermida scored, C. Ross to second
- R. Paulino singled to left, C. Ross scored
- J. Johnson struck out swinging

Murphy just simply dropped a routine fly ball.  THAT'S how you beat Santana.

Murphy should be a Marlin. He may be more fun to watch than Jeff Stone was.

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #43: April 24, 2009, 05:18:36 PM »
yeah, I remember that game. Santana took the loss that day despite being amazing.

You mean the 7 IP with 3 H, 1 BB, 13 K with one of the H being a bunt single and that outside that inning detailed above only one batter would have even reached 2b?  I'd rather forget that part.  But, the Nats have a better hitting coach than the Fish.

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #44: April 24, 2009, 05:21:50 PM »
Murphy should be a Marlin. He may be more fun to watch than Jeff Stone was.




Offline DCFan

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #45: April 24, 2009, 05:24:47 PM »
BRING ON THE METS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And in glorious HD!  :woop:

Offline saltydad

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #46: April 24, 2009, 05:39:35 PM »
And in glorious HD!  :woop:

Not for DISH customers. :'(

Online sportsfan882

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #47: April 24, 2009, 05:40:57 PM »
Quote
Washington

Hernandez - 4
Johnson - 3
Zimmerman - 5
Dunn - 7
Dukes - 8
Kearns - 9
Flores - 2
Gonzalez - 6
Olsen - 1

New York

Reyes - 6
Castillo - 4
Beltran - 8
Delgado - 3
Wright - 5
Sheffield - 9
Tatis - 7
Castro - 2
Santana - 1

Online Nathan

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #48: April 24, 2009, 05:44:33 PM »
Hernandez leadoff :hang:

Offline DCFan

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Re: Nationals @ Mets, Game 1
« Reply #49: April 24, 2009, 05:50:28 PM »
Not for DISH customers. :'(

I used to have Dish and I loved it until the Nats came to town and they refused to carry MASN. Second year came around and they still weren't carrying them I switched to Fios and haven't look back.