Author Topic: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2  (Read 8068 times)

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Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #50: April 21, 2009, 07:16:13 PM »
What makes the change up work is the speed differential. When it's too close (under 10 mph difference) it's just a BP fastball.
That is false.  Good movement/deception can compensate, and there are few pitchers who really have much bigger speed differentials from what Martis has.

Online blue911

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #51: April 21, 2009, 07:17:21 PM »
I looked at the plots for the Change up and there might have been a few two seamers that Martis let get away that registered at 87-88 MPH (registered on gameday as change ups).  Since it is still early in the season, they could have skewed the average a bit, but still judging from the individual plots, we are looking at a change up that sits 80-82 MPH and a four seamer that sits 90-93.

Do have numbers on how many fastballs were at 92+MPH? I try to pay attention to max velocity and average velocity for the Nationals pitches. I don't write them down or anything. I don't remember Martis hitting 92 or above very often. But that may be because MLB and MASN use a different gun.

Offline CJames0569

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #52: April 21, 2009, 07:17:36 PM »
Young should prob just head to the 60 day DL for being morbidly obese

Online blue911

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #53: April 21, 2009, 07:18:50 PM »
That is false.  Good movement/deception can compensate, and there are few pitchers who really have much bigger speed differentials from what Martis has.

I think what you're confusing is that most pitchers add and subtract speeds on all their pitches. If you notice, Nationals pitchers don't change speeds very well.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #54: April 21, 2009, 07:19:09 PM »
I don't remember Martis hitting 92 or above very often. But that may be because MLB and MASN use a different gun.
That's like comparing the National Enquirer and Newsweek in terms of reputability.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #55: April 21, 2009, 07:20:35 PM »
Do have numbers on how many fastballs were at 92+MPH? I try to pay attention to max velocity and average velocity for the Nationals pitches. I don't write them down or anything. I don't remember Martis hitting 92 or above very often. But that may be because MLB and MASN use a different gun.


Here is the speed vs. vertical movement chart.  I would say at a glance it looks like about 4-5 pitches were over 92 MPH.


Online blue911

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #56: April 21, 2009, 07:21:20 PM »
That's like comparing the National Enquirer and Newsweek in terms of reputability.

Now you're just trashing MASN. Why on earth would they purposely lie? If anything the "slower" gun is correct since it is the same technology that Law enforcement uses.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #57: April 21, 2009, 07:24:02 PM »
Now you're just trashing MASN. Why on earth would they purposely lie? If anything the "slower" gun is correct since it is the same technology that Law enforcement uses.
I'm just going by the "if it's MASN it sucks" rule of thumb. :rofl:
Here is the speed vs. vertical movement chart.  I would say at a glance it looks like about 4-5 pitches were over 92 MPH.
It looks like only 3.  Either way, his change up has been effective enough so far.  Hopefully he can learn to take a bit off the change if he must.  Martis has done a good job with adjustments thus far.

Online blue911

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #58: April 21, 2009, 07:25:05 PM »
Here is the speed vs. vertical movement chart.  I would say at a glance it looks like about 4-5 pitches were over 92 MPH.

Thanks. I like the 2 seamer that has no difference in either velocity or break from the 4 seamer. :D

Online blue911

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #59: April 21, 2009, 07:29:34 PM »
It looks like only 3.  Either way, his change up has been effective enough so far.  Hopefully he can learn to take a bit off the change if he must.  Martis has done a good job with adjustments thus far.

You can probably tell I'm not real high on Martis. I don't know if it's him or St. Claire but I hate the way he pitches. He needs to knock some people on their asses to get them off his breaking pitches. Just too freaking nice I guess.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #60: April 21, 2009, 07:29:54 PM »
Thanks. I like the 2 seamer that has no difference in either velocity or break from the 4 seamer. :D


those are differentiated more based off of spin direction and magnitude.  Essentially, they are the same pitch, but the two seamer has a bit more magnitude in its spin and a bit more horizontal movement.  PitchFX doesn't always get them right, but after looking at them in depth for almost a year now, it does appear that it's get it right more often than not.  There is one that is improperly classified as a two seamer, the other two are correct, though.



(the two blue dots b/w 210 degrees and 225 degrees are two seamers based of their direction, magnitude, and horizontal movement.  You can also notice the one green dot improperly classified as a fastball.  This happens sometimes when their is conflicting readings on a ball (more rotation than usual, or more speed/angle than the normal pitch), but gets normalized after a few outings.)

Online blue911

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #61: April 21, 2009, 07:33:23 PM »
those are differentiated more based off of spin direction and magnitude.  Essentially, they are the same pitch, but the two seamer has a bit more magnitude in its spin and a bit more horizontal movement.  PitchFX doesn't always get them right, but after looking at them in depth for almost a year now, it does appear that it's get it right more often than not.  There is one that is improperly classified as a two seamer, the other two are correct, though.

How do you read the chart?

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #62: April 21, 2009, 07:40:35 PM »
How do you read the chart?


essentially, the direction is where the dot is in relation to the center.  The further out the dot is from the center, the more rotational speed it has (or magnitude).  Matched up with the horizontal charts (where there is some guesswork in determining which dots are which, but it is usually obvious), you can see that the two seamer has 3 or 4 inches more of horizontal movement than the four seamer.  There is probably one that should be classified as a four seamer and one that should be classified as a two seamer.  Looking at the conglomerate of the charts together, you can basically circle certain clusters of dots that are probably the same pitches.  Again, since gameday can't read the players finger positioning, these are mainly super educated guesses by a computer system that compares to a historic normalized database.


(this is how pitchFX generally will classify pitches)

Offline nats2playoffs

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #63: April 21, 2009, 07:43:05 PM »
Dibble is currently appearing as a guest on the Nationals radio broadcast during the rain delay.  1500 am.

 :mitt:

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #64: April 21, 2009, 07:45:12 PM »
current radar of weather around D.C.  Looks like they should be playing soon, I say maybe an 8:30 start?

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #65: April 21, 2009, 07:52:26 PM »
Quote
Rizzo was asked today about the decision to designate Steven Shell.

Just a little interpretation here. It doesn't sound like Rizzo is much of a Shell fan.

"I just didn't like the way he was performing," Rizzo said. "I didn't like the mindset on the mound and off the mound and the preparation for the game and just the whole aura behind him on the mound."

 :shock:

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #66: April 21, 2009, 07:53:11 PM »
NatsJournal is predicting a start time of 8:00-8:05.

Online blue911

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #67: April 21, 2009, 07:54:23 PM »
essentially, the direction is where the dot is in relation to the center.  The further out the dot is from the center, the more rotational speed it has (or magnitude).  Matched up with the horizontal charts (where there is some guesswork in determining which dots are which, but it is usually obvious), you can see that the two seamer has 3 or 4 inches more of horizontal movement than the four seamer.  There is probably one that should be classified as a four seamer and one that should be classified as a two seamer.  Looking at the conglomerate of the charts together, you can basically circle certain clusters of dots that are probably the same pitches.  Again, since gameday can't read the players finger positioning, these are mainly super educated guesses by a computer system that compares to a historic normalized database.

The guys on TV are just guessing. I quit listening to them and just pay attention to speed and break. I also look for pitches that break late and violently. Zimmermann threw a couple yesterday that were real ball breakers.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #68: April 21, 2009, 07:54:25 PM »
Hey sportsfan, I don't like your aura.  Better watch out.  Yeah.  That's right, your aura sucks!

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #69: April 21, 2009, 07:58:57 PM »
this team is so freaking dumb.

Clippard continues to dominate as a reliever in Syracuse and yet they called Rivera back up. :?

2 IP 1 H 0 R 0 ER 0 BB 3 K tonight in relief of Balester who had a very solid outing. Clip is in line to get the win.

His numbers on the season: 7.1 IP 6 H 1 R 1 ER 1 BB 10 K (1.23 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 12.27 K/9).


Online blue911

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #70: April 21, 2009, 08:00:32 PM »
this team is so freaking dumb.

Clippard continues to dominate as a reliever in Syracuse and yet they called Rivera back up. :?

2 IP 1 H 0 R 0 ER 0 BB 3 K tonight in relief of Balester who had a very solid outing. Clip is in line to get the win.

His numbers on the season: 7.1 IP 6 H 1 R 1 ER 1 BB 10 K (1.23 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 12.27 K/9).



Those are almost Brian Sanches numbers!

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #71: April 21, 2009, 08:01:41 PM »
The guys on TV are just guessing. I quit listening to them and just pay attention to speed and break. I also look for pitches that break late and violently. Zimmermann threw a couple yesterday that were real ball breakers.

Yeah, I have noticed since looking at the data, that the announcers are frequently wrong.  Some pitches are obvious, but others are harder to determine based off a single glance and camera angle.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #72: April 21, 2009, 08:02:28 PM »
Those are almost Brian Sanches numbers!
yeah except Clippard just turned 24 years old and I really think he could excel in a relief spot. He's got a sneaky fastball and a decent changeup and curve.


Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #73: April 21, 2009, 08:12:24 PM »
Martis giving up back to back walks to Jones and McCann.  He tried to pitch both away and couldn't nip the corners enough to get the called strikes.  He needs to go after the next batter with strikes.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Nationals vs Braves, Game 2
« Reply #74: April 21, 2009, 08:13:10 PM »
freakin nag. why did he collapse with 2 outs? have to throw strikes.