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51
The Clubhouse / Re: 2018 Nats HOF Odds
« Last post by imref on Yesterday at 11:29:08 AM »
Harper should be around 500 HRs by the time he's done, if he stays clean and healthy, he's got a decent shot.   McGriff and Sheffield are the only players with around 500 home runs who aren't in the hall (other than the steroid guys).
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The Clubhouse / Re: 2018 Nats HOF Odds
« Last post by PowerBoater69 on Yesterday at 11:24:25 AM »
Harper has a ton of work to do to be over 50% likelihood.  His next 7 years have to be better than his first 7.  His stat case is weak in comparison to HOFs. Looking at all of his HOF assessments at the bottom of his Baseball-Reference page, there not one that says he's halfway to an average HOF guy yet. He's going to have to build a case by either improving or getting some nice longevity-related records (e.g., 400 HRs, 12-15 all stars, a ring or two, another MVP, etc...). 

Scherzer OTOH is in already, but it is scary to see his #1 comp on B-R being Johan Santana.

Harper's chances are inflated a little based on his fame and popularity, your stats analysis is correct but I'd give him a 5-10% bump just because of his star power. Similar to how the New York players had an advantage in the old days.
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The Clubhouse / Re: Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond
« Last post by NJ Ave on Yesterday at 11:07:43 AM »
Kind of ignoring what to do with Rendon and issues in 2020 and beyond. Either he is going to cost much more tha 18 million or he is gone and need to replace him.

Rendon will not get that much more - just look at the list of AAV for 3rd basemen. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/3rd-base/

And whatever we can resign Rendon for will be a savings over Rendon + Zimmerman in 2019.

My guess for Rendon is no more than 5/$115 or something like that.
54
The Clubhouse / Re: Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond
« Last post by NJ Ave on Yesterday at 11:05:03 AM »
Are they trading Eaton and MAT. They will still be paid even if on the bench.

Eaton will certainly be traded if they re-sign Bryce. MAT, I have no idea but I think he'll be traded too this offseason regardless of what happens with Bryce. He doesn't come off the bench well and they don't have a full-time slot for him. But even if they keep him, MAT's ~$4 million 2019 salary doesn't really make or break the cap for us.
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The Clubhouse / Re: Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond
« Last post by Natsinpwc on Yesterday at 11:02:07 AM »
Kind of ignoring what to do with Rendon and issues in 2020 and beyond. Either he is going to cost much more tha 18 million or he is gone and need to replace him.
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The Clubhouse / Re: Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond
« Last post by Natsinpwc on Yesterday at 10:59:35 AM »
You went into the 2018 season with C+OF salaries of $40.64 million from Wieters, Harper, Eaton, and MAT.

Assuming you're filling two 2019 OF positions with Soto/Robles at minimum salaries totaling $1 million, that leaves you $39.64 million to sign Bryce and get something at C, at no additional cost and contributing likely more WAR to the team in 2019.
Are they trading Eaton and MAT. They will still be paid even if on the bench.
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The Clubhouse / Re: Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond
« Last post by NJ Ave on Yesterday at 10:42:19 AM »
You went into the 2018 season with C+OF salaries of $40.64 million from Wieters, Harper, Eaton, and MAT.

Assuming you're filling two 2019 OF positions with Soto/Robles at minimum salaries totaling $1 million, that leaves you $39.64 million to sign Bryce and get something at C, at no additional cost and contributing likely more WAR to the team in 2019.
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The Clubhouse / Re: Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond
« Last post by bluestreak on Yesterday at 10:41:21 AM »
The plan with Harper would be interesting.

Basically, if the Nats are going to compete, they're going to have to trade one of Turner, Robles, or Rendon, as well as Eaton or Keiboom.

Trade away all your cost-controlled good players/prospects. Makes total sense.
59
The Clubhouse / Re: Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond
« Last post by NJ Ave on Yesterday at 10:37:08 AM »
And Eaton should be able to bring you back something of pretty significant value.
60
The Clubhouse / Re: Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond
« Last post by NJ Ave on Yesterday at 10:35:07 AM »
Because the team has too many holes and the 30+ million that Harper is going to eat up wont let them fill them via free agency. Not unless the Lerners want to go big into the luxury tax. And early reports from Jane's says they want to reduce payroll

No, I'm wondering why you think it's possible, for a team facing salary constraints, to improve their situation by trading away cheap 3-4 win players?

Eaton would have to go because otherwise it's too many OF.

And Harper's $30 million 2019 salary is just replacing the salaries of Harper and Wieters in 2018. Here's the breakdown from last offseason. I think this is still close. http://www.talknats.com/2017/12/30/the-washington-nationals-salary-projections-and-bryce-harper/

2019 Tax Basis, assuming Eaton trade
Scherzer: $28.69
Strasburg: $25
Zimmerman: $16.67
Rendon: $18
Roark: $12
Doolittle: $6
Taylor: $6
Kendrick: $4
Turner: $3
Ross: $2
Solis: $2
Barraclough: $2

Total: $125.36 million

So despite your repeated declarations that the Nationals have no money to spend, I just don't see it. They can sign Bryce and take care of the rest of the minimum contracts and be at $165 million or so, with a cap of $206 next season.
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