BP has been trying to project likely dates, and as of now DC is a few series past the midpoint of the various probabilities. They've been running computer simulation models that spit out a lot of numbers, I haven't really been following it but here is the most recent tally, through the RFK series so you can see we're a bit past the likely points.
by Clay Davenport
Bonds hits one more in NY, to give him 749, needing seven more for the record.
This one keeps him on pace to hit 756 on the road trip in Chicago and Milwaukee - a 27% chance of it happening during that swing, although like I said last time, those numbers are biased on the high side, because the computer isn’t registering the near-zero chance that he would play the last day in Milwaukee if he’s sitting on 755. Or even, I would think, on 754 - the tying home run would be a pretty significant milestone as well. Another homerless day will tilt the odds towards the following Atlanta and Florida homestand, which is currently sitting on a 25% total chance.
178 Jun 27 10 10 SD
180 Jun 29 97 107 ARI
181 Jun 30 370 477 ARI
182 Jul 1 983 1460 ARI
184 Jul 3 2090 3550 @CIN
185 Jul 4 4017 7567 @CIN
186 Jul 5 6485 14052 @CIN
187 Jul 6 9607 23659 @STL
188 Jul 7 13400 37059 @STL
189 Jul 8 17441 54500 @STL
194 Jul 13 21729 76229 LAD
195 Jul 14 25913 102142 LAD
196 Jul 15 29696 131838 LAD
197 Jul 16 33838 165676 @CHC
198 Jul 17 36295 201971 @CHC
199 Jul 18 38848 240819 @CHC
200 Jul 19 40638 281457 @CHC
201 Jul 20 41433 322890 @MIL
202 Jul 21 41753 364643 @MIL <— Peak single day
203 Jul 22 41983 406626 @MIL
204 Jul 23 40988 447614 ATL
205 Jul 24 39799 487413 ATL
206 Jul 25 38153 525566 ATL <— 50% threshold
207 Jul 26 36139 561705 ATL
208 Jul 27 33935 595640 FLA
209 Jul 28 31868 627508 FLA
210 Jul 29 29117 656625 FLA
212 Jul 31 27382 684007 @LAD
213 Aug 1 24842 708849 @LAD
214 Aug 2 22355 731204 @LAD
215 Aug 3 20661 751865 @SD
216 Aug 4 18333 770198 @SD
217 Aug 5 16648 786846 @SD
218 Aug 6 15049 801895 WAS
219 Aug 7 13139 815034 WAS
220 Aug 8 11803 826837 WAS
221 Aug 9 10444 837281 WAS