HOF Ballot

[NatsAddict]

11/26/2007 12:00 PM ET
Hall ballot welcomes 11 newcomers
Lean list could bode well for holdovers Gossage, Rice
By Jack O'Connell / MLB.com
   
The 2008 Hall of Fame ballot that was released Monday and will be mailed at the end of the week to more than 575 voting members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America contains merely 25 names, one of the smallest ballots in history.

Only 11 newcomers to the ballot made it through the BBWAA's Screening Committee, which has been traditionally liberal in placing new names up for consideration. Once there, however, candidates must be named on at least 5 percent of ballots to remain eligible for up to 15 years. This can be a difficult cut.

Last year, for example, 13 of the 17 first-year candidates did not get at least 28 votes, which was the 5-percent cut of a record 545 ballots submitted. Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn were elected on each's first try. The only other first-year candidates to stay on the ballot were Mark McGwire, who received 128 votes (23.5 percent) and Harold Baines, who got 29 (5.3).

Lopped off after only one year's consideration included two former Most Valuable Players, Jose Canseco and the late Ken Caminiti, and a two-time Cy Young Award winner, Bret Saberhagen.

None of the newcomers on the 2008 ballot won either of those awards. Not that this year's freshmen don't have their share of credentials, but it appears to be a decidedly thin lot. Certainly, there are no names that jump immediately off the page as those of Gwynn and Ripken.

The new group includes a former batting champion in Tim Raines, who also has the fifth-highest stolen-base total in history with 808, and two former Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award winners in David Justice and Chuck Knoblauch, both of whom went on to multiple postseason appearances. There is also a former World Series MVP in pitcher Jose Rijo of the 1990 Reds, a 50-homer hitter in Brady Anderson, a key starting pitcher on the Blue Jays' 1992 and '93 Series champions in Todd Stottlemyre, two of the top closing relievers of their time in Robb Nen and Rod Beck, a 200-game winner in Chuck Finley and two exceedingly dependable players who were managers' dreams in Shawon Dunston and Travis Fryman.

Technically, Rijo is no first-timer. The 116-game winner previously appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2001 after having not pitched since 1995. But he returned to the Majors that year and pitched again in 2002. Although Rijo received only one vote in 2001, the rules of the voting allow him another opportunity on the ballot because of his return to the game.

What normally happens with such a ballot is that writers cast reflection on the holdovers who for whatever reason have yet to win the 75-percent approval required for election. Voters tend to want to vote for some players, and if the new names aren't dazzling, then an intense second look at the other candidates becomes an option.

This is good news for Rich "Goose" Gossage, who is in his ninth year on the ballot and has made a steady rise in the voting in recent elections. Gossage's vote total on the previous ballot of 388 was 21 shy of the amount required.

Getting as high as 71.2 percent of the vote bodes well for the two-time Fireman of the Year and 22-season veteran because every player who has received more than 70 percent of the vote in a BBWAA election has made it to the Hall of Fame. Granted, some of those gained entry through the Veterans Committee, but the Goose is right at the door with as many as six elections left for him if he doesn't make it this year.

2008 Hall of Fame Inductions
2008 Candidates
The 2008 ballot features 25 candidates, with 14 returnees and 11 newcomers.
• Brady Anderson
• Harold Baines
• Rod Beck
• Bert Blyleven
• Dave Concepcion
• Andre Dawson
• Shawon Dunston
• Chuck Finley
• Travis Fryman
• Rich Gossage
• Tommy John
• David Justice
• Chuck Knoblauch
• Don Mattingly
• Mark McGwire
• Jack Morris
• Dale Murphy
• Robb Nen
• Dave Parker
• Tim Raines
• Jim Rice
• Jose Rijo
• Lee Smith
• Todd Stottlemyre
• Alan Trammell

That does not hold as true for Jim Rice, the former Red Sox slugger and American League MVP in 1978. Rice, a .298 career hitter with 382 home runs, is in his 14th year on the ballot, so time is running out. In the previous election, Rice was on 63.5 percent of the ballots. That left him lacking by 63 votes, which is a sizeable margin to overcome in one year.

If Rice cannot make up the deficit in two years, he will go the way of another former MVP, Steve Garvey, the 1974 winner with the Dodgers, who dropped off the ballot in 2007 after 15 years. The only player on this year's ballot who is in his 15th try is Dave Concepcion. The shortstop on Cincinnati's Big Red Machine teams of the 1970s received 74 votes (13.6) in the previous election.

In addition to Rice, four other former MVPs are on the ballot and have received scattering support, the most of which has gone to Andre Dawson, the 1987 NL winner with the Cubs. "The Hawk," who has watched former teammates Gary Carter and Ryne Sandberg make the grade in recent years, got 309 votes (56.7) in the previous election and is on the ballot for the seventh time.

Far less support has been generated for two-time NL MVP Dale Murphy, who won in 1982 and '83 for the Braves. He has never gotten more than 23 percent, and in the previous election, his percentage fell to 9.2. Doing only slightly better were Dave Parker, the 1978 NL winner for the Pirates, with 62 votes (11.4), and Don Mattingly, the 1985 AL winner for the Yankees, with 54 (9.9).

Tommy John, winner of 288 games and additionally famous for undergoing the first successful ligament transplant surgery that has since saved numerous pitching careers, is on the ballot for the 14th time but is much farther from 75 percent than Rice. In the previous ballot, John received 125 votes (22.9).

Bert Blyleven, a 287-game winner with the fifth-highest career strikeout total of 3,701 and 60 shutouts, is nearing the 50-percent range (47.7 in the 2007 election) in his 11th year on the ballot. Jack Morris, the ace of three World Series title teams (1984 Tigers, 1991 Twins, 1992 Blue Jays), former saves leader Lee Smith and 1984 World Series MVP Alan Trammell are other holdovers whose careers will come under review.

Writers with 10 or more consecutive years' experience make up the electorate, which must return ballots by a Dec. 31 postmark. Votes are counted jointly by one representative each of the BBWAA and the Ernst & Young accounting firm. Results will be announced Jan. 8.

MLB

Chuck Knoblauch?  I had to check the date an make sure it wasn't April 1.  Of the newcomers, Raines is the only one that I would consider worthy of even getting on the ballot.

[tomterp]

Brady Anderson?  Please.

[arkymark]

Maybe it's ingrained Yankee obeisance, but I'm shocked that Donny Ballgame isn't a shoo in.

[spidernat]

Brady Anderson?  Please.

I couldn't agree more with your sentiment.

[soxfan59]

No way McGuire gets in, eh?

I love Tim Raines (he's a former White Sox, I know!), but I think he's marginal, as is Harold Baines.  Great players, but not HOF worthy.

Maybe some of the marginal candidates that are deserving will have a chance this year -- Rice, Blyleven, Dawson, etc.  I'm not sure if any of them really deserve it, but this could be thier chance.

[ronnynat]

Brady Anderson and Mark McGwire

[saltydad]

Knobloch was an excellent 2nd baseman before he was hit with an attack of the "can't throw no mo'"  Donny Baseball HAS to get in! McGwire and Anderson? Agree...never!