SDSU won't make Omaha this year. They play in a second rate conference and that means getting past tough schools in the regionals and super regionals. Yes, Fresno did it last year but like GMU going to the Final Four, it was a fluke.
No, probably not, but if you've got a starter like Strasburg that can carry a team a long way. If they've got another starter, they could find themselves there.
And, what Fresno did last year, was not a fluke. They had good young pitching that matured through the season to go along with a competent offense and they played great defense, the last two had been pretty solid all year. It was unlikely, for sure, but it wasn't a fluke.