Author Topic: Buy, Sell, or Hold?  (Read 5747 times)

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Offline Ray D

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #100: June 14, 2012, 04:11:05 PM »
LaRoche is a much better hitter than Morse now? A slow start from Morse makes us think he's worse than a .260, 20+ homerun guy? Have we forgotten last season already?

Sorry that was out of context.  Morse is clearly more valuable offensively. I was comparing the two defensively at first base.  Morse is adequate to good.  LaRoche is spectacular.  I realize first base - and left field for that matter - are the two positions of least importance on the field.  Nevertheless, I still believe that the gap between Morse and LaRoche as firstbaseman comes close to compensating for the offensive gap.  Morse is the better overall player, and overall value.  He is far more valuable than LaRoche as trade bait.  I would trade Morse before LaRoche because Morse would bring far greater return. The difference in return would outweigh the difference in their value to us.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #101: June 14, 2012, 04:57:18 PM »
Ah, I see where you're coming from now. Sorry for the misunderstanding. And yes, I believe we would get more in return for Morse and for the right package I don't think we should hesitate to deal him.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #102: June 14, 2012, 05:04:20 PM »
Nevertheless, I still believe that the gap between Morse and LaRoche as firstbaseman comes close to compensating for the offensive gap. 

There's a reason mientkiewicz could never find a starting job- you need a whole lot of offense at 1b and no amount of defense compensates. I think the gap between LaRoche and Morse offensively (assuming morse rounds into last year's form and laroche into his career norms) is bigger than any gap in defense

Offline Ray D

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #103: June 14, 2012, 05:07:46 PM »
you need a whole lot of offense at 1b
Agreed. And LaRoche is a whole lot of offense.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #104: June 14, 2012, 05:20:22 PM »
Agreed. And LaRoche is a whole lot of offense.

For first basemen, he's average at best.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #105: June 14, 2012, 05:24:13 PM »
For first basemen, he's average at best.

But the premise is that your average first baseman is a whole lot of offense.  So, he's average, so he's a whole lot of offense.  The point is, he meets the criterion set in the message I responded to.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #106: June 14, 2012, 05:24:18 PM »
Or a CF and play Harper in LF

I would switch Werthless and Harper in that scenario,

Offline LostYudite

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #107: June 14, 2012, 05:29:57 PM »
Agreed. And LaRoche is a whole lot of offense.

Not in the context of 1b, he's not.  If he were playing a more-demanding defensive position, then maybe, but in the context of 1b, he's a middle-of-the-road guy at best.

He's having so far this year his best offensive season in several years.  And still there are 8-10 1b who are hitting better - Votto, Fielder, Encarnacion, LaHair, Dunn, Konerko, and Carpenter are all better this year right now, today.  And Goldschmidt, Mitch Moreland and Chris Davis are all basically equal.

And that's not counting the Pujols, Texeira, Gonzalez, Morneau, Helton group who all have years of history saying they're better than LaRoche and better than they are hitting right now.  It's not at all unlikely that LaRoche ends up somewhere between 15-20 in the list of 1b at the end of the year. 

And I'll say again, this is LaRoche AT HIS BEST.  His year this year is better so far than every other year he's had, save 2006 and maybe 2008.  He hasn't hit this well in 3-4 years and despite that, he's still middle of the pack at best in MLB.  He is what he is - a solid 1b option who will give you 20-25 HR, 80-100 RBI and play above-average 1b defense.  If you have good power coming from other places in your lineup, he doesn't hurt at all and he's not going to keep you from making the playoffs.  But he's not "a lot of offense" at a position where "a lot" means 35-40 HR, 120-150 RBI, 350+ OBP, 550+ SLG.

Offline RL04

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #108: June 14, 2012, 05:40:44 PM »
What keeps me from buying right now is the expectation that we're getting Storen back very quickly, DeRosa relatively soon too and Werth back in August. Getting Werth back and setting up a Morse-Harper-Werth outfield is basically like adding someone at the deadline.


But the only problem with a Morse-Harper-Werth outfield is that Werth would be in the outfield and in the line-up. 

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #109: June 14, 2012, 05:49:22 PM »

But the only problem with a Morse-Harper-Werth outfield is that Werth would be in the outfield and in the line-up. 

A .360 wOBA (.276/.372/.439 for you non-sabrnerds) is bad now?

Offline Slateman

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #110: June 14, 2012, 07:16:03 PM »
LaRoche is a much better hitter than Morse now? A slow start from Morse makes us think he's worse than a .260, 20+ homerun guy? Have we forgotten last season already?

LaRoche is far more proven than Morse. He has one good year and has had issue staying on the field his whole career. If Morse returns to form, his stock will never be higher

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #111: June 14, 2012, 09:08:10 PM »
What about Parra from Arizona?  They may fall out of contention by the deadline.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #112: June 14, 2012, 09:10:34 PM »
I like the idea of getting LaHair as a cheap replacement for LaRoche. 

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #113: June 14, 2012, 10:54:41 PM »
Quote
Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi
Denard Span having his best season since 2009. Two guaranteed years left on favorable contract. Going to be a lot of trade interest in him.

Would be a big move

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #114: June 15, 2012, 09:21:31 AM »
LaRoche is far more proven than Morse. He has one good year and has had issue staying on the field his whole career. If Morse returns to form, his stock will never be higher

Yes but that one good year (the first time he's really been given a chance btw) was much better than anything LaRoche has EVER done. LaRoche's best season is still an entire WAR less than Morse did in his first full season.

I do agree with your (EDIT) third sentence though.

Offline Sharp

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #115: June 15, 2012, 09:29:06 AM »
Would be a big move
Who do you propose we move?  It would have to be something really good to both convince the Twins and beat out all the other interested teams--a lot better than anything I can see us giving up.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #116: June 15, 2012, 09:29:59 AM »
I do agree with your second sentence though.

What about the third? "If Morse returns to form, his stock will never be higher".  I really thing that's the most pertinent point of the trade Morse Vs. LaRoche debate.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #117: June 15, 2012, 09:30:37 AM »
What about the third? "If Morse returns to form, his stock will never be higher".  I really thing that's the most pertinent point of the trade Morse Vs. LaRoche debate.

Whoops, that's the one I meant.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #118: June 15, 2012, 09:31:16 AM »
Who do you propose we move? 

Storen for Span.

(I'm kidding!)




Offline Obed_Marsh

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #119: June 15, 2012, 09:36:03 AM »
Storen Ray D for Span.

(I'm not kidding!)

FTFY. Actually I am kidding.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #120: June 15, 2012, 09:45:43 AM »
What would Lombo and Rosenbaum net?  Maybe add Eury Perez if we're trying for Span?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #121: June 15, 2012, 10:52:14 AM »
Twins need infield help and perhaps hard throwing starters.   Plouffe has been up and down over the years and never really took over SS when he had a chance (now he's at 3d), Dozier I think was a prospect to watch at SS, has a bit of pop, but has not gotten off to a great start, and Alexi Casilla is Alexi Casilla.  Espinosa is an upgrade over all three.  If you view Span as your leadoff hitter, then Lombo also goes back on the table, and that was someone they were interested in last year.  One of Espi or Lombo, add in Detwiler and that will get you into discussions.   That's also close to the package they wanted last year.  The price has gone up now that he is healthy. 

Span is a great fit.  2 more years of team control, then Goodwin should be ready.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #122: June 15, 2012, 11:48:05 AM »
http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/8052191/source-chicago-cubs-ryan-dempster-theo-epstein-talk-potential-trades

Quote
CHICAGO -- Ryan Dempster and team president Theo Epstein met Wednesday to discuss potential trades for the Chicago Cubs pitcher, according to a source with knowledge of the situation.

Dempster is in the final season of a four-year, $44 million deal that pays him $14 million in 2012. As many as 10 teams have interest in Dempster, who has 10 and 5 rights that allow him to veto a trade.

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"We discussed a lot of things and obviously there are a lot of things being talked about," Dempster told ESPNChicago.com of the meeting that took place in the Wrigley Field grandstand before Wednesday's game against the Detroit Tigers. "We talked about being on the same page and trying to do what is best for our team."

Dempster has thrived on the field amid all the trade speculation. Mostly due to a lack of run support, he is just 2-3, but his 2.31 ERA is fifth-best in the National League, and he has gone at least seven innings in six of his 11 starts.

"I have been around long enough that I know just to concentrate on doing my job the best I can and stay focused and by doing that I am being a good teammate," Dempster said.

With the Cubs rebuilding under Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, Dempster is one of several Cubs whose names are popping up in trade talk. He doesn't view a potential deal as a bad thing.

"When you're young and get traded you see it as a negative sometimes, but if you look at it from the other side that means other teams are interested in you," he said. "It's humbling, and you appreciate it. But at the same time it does not change anything that you do, that you go about your business and get ready to pitch."

Dempster is effectively on the market. What would it, realistically take, to get him?

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #123: June 15, 2012, 12:04:18 PM »
http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/8052191/source-chicago-cubs-ryan-dempster-theo-epstein-talk-potential-trades

Dempster is effectively on the market. What would it, realistically take, to get him?

Michael Taylor/Goodwin/Hood and a pitcher or two?

Offline Slateman

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #124: June 15, 2012, 12:11:31 PM »
Michael Taylor/Goodwin/Hood and a pitcher or two?

What pitcher? We are pretty thin in that department. Everyone we have is unrefined or an injury risk.