Author Topic: Buy, Sell, or Hold?  (Read 5691 times)

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Offline LostYudite

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Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Topic Start: June 13, 2012, 12:40:54 PM »
So I thought it was early to have this discussion, but I just read Dave Cameron's scene-setter for the trade deadline stuff, and he argues:

Quote
In the case of both the White Sox and Nationals, I’d actually argue that both have enough glaring weaknesses that buying sooner than later might make a legitimate difference in the final standings, given the small margins that should be expected to decide the difference between the division winner and the wild card. Even if the Nationals feel that their strong start puts them on solid foundation for a playoff spot, the difference between winning the NL East and finishing second is pretty significant, and they should be willing to buy earlier than usual in an effort to add even an extra half a win – that could be the difference between ending up in the play-in game or not.

I think that's interesting - he also argues that because of the second playoff spot that there are likely to be a lot more buyers and holders than sellers, so the advantage may be to the team that moves early.  He thinks the Pads, Cubs, Rockies, Twins, Royals, A's, Astros and Mariners are the only clear sellers and thinks only one or two more will join them.  I think I agree with that, but might have put the Brewers down there in the buyers.

Anyway, so what says the collective genius of the board.  Are we buying?  Who are we buying?  Are we looking short-term? Long-term? Are we touching the MLB roster?  Who would you target?

As for me, I know we talk a lot about the never-ending search for the white whale, but I'm actually intrigued by LaHair.  He's not young, but he's got years of team control, good patience and power and is a lefty 1b - sort of Dunn-lite.  If you think Harper is your CF next year and probably your #4 batter, LaHair is an interesting 1b/6-hole guy.  That still leaves the leadoff problem, of course.

In the same vein, I'd love to see us ask about Hosmer, but I don't think we've got the chips to get him.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #1: June 13, 2012, 12:45:59 PM »
What keeps me from buying right now is the expectation that we're getting Storen back very quickly, DeRosa relatively soon too and Werth back in August. Getting Werth back and setting up a Morse-Harper-Werth outfield is basically like adding someone at the deadline.

You essentially add a starting RF, a closer and a versatile utility bench guy, all for free.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #2: June 13, 2012, 12:46:15 PM »
I think we're holding with the possible expectation of either a short term outfielder bench bat or bullpen arm

Long term, the outfield is set- Harper and Werth are definite, then Morse if they keep laroche, Moore, Brown, or Lombo if not. Similarly, if they keep laroche, he stays at first, if not Morse. Zimmerman is third. In the middle, they have Desmond, Espinosa and lombo who could all start. Catcher is a cluster now, by Solano has been a nice find, flores has played well, and ramos will be back- no need for a trade. Pitching, the rotation is set (if anything we have a surplus of starters) and the back end of the bullpen is rounding into form since Clippard moved into the closers role


Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #3: June 13, 2012, 12:48:32 PM »
LaRoche and Jackson could just as easily be gone at the trade deadline as us being buyers.  Crazy times to say the least.

Offline captkirk42

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #4: June 13, 2012, 12:51:34 PM »
Is that question loaded? That is a hard question this year. We have enough right now to hold, but there is always room for improvement. How do you improve something that is already pretty darn good? We need more Offense, More PoP. Consistant Pop.

We are definitely NOT Sellers this year. Most of the previous years OK we were sellers, and a few times sold what we shouldn't have at the time.

I'd say Buy but what do we really need? OK more Pop, but at what cost? The loss of some speed? We can't get rid of our pitching that is what has gotten us to this point this year.

Online imref

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #5: June 13, 2012, 12:52:43 PM »
how about another starter?  Figure we need someone to replace Strasburg come late August-September, and I'm not convinced Detwiler is the guy.  Rosenbaum probably isn't ready.  Who else?  Certainly not Lanan or Maya.    Are there any starters in the last year of their contract who can reliably give us a 3.50 or under ERA and pitch into October?

Offline Mathguy

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #6: June 13, 2012, 12:53:50 PM »
I really hope the Nats just hold, unless more injuries develop and a need arises.  For now, I don't see any reason to look for someone at 1st base when our "2nd string" 1st baseman is an everyday outfielder.  Both LaRouche and Jackson have contributed too much to be considered in a trade for the void left without them couldn't be matched by whatever was obtained in a trade.

LaRoche and Jackson could just as easily be gone at the trade deadline as us being buyers.  Crazy times to say the least.


Offline LostYudite

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #7: June 13, 2012, 12:55:19 PM »
LaRoche and Jackson could just as easily be gone at the trade deadline as us being buyers.  Crazy times to say the least.

I don't think we move Jackson now, in light of the fact that we do need to think about what a possible playoff rotation without Stras would look like and Jackson's clearly the #3 after Gio and ZNN.

But LaRoche, yeah, that's possible, especially if Werth is coming sooner.  As is Lombo, as is Flores, as is Clippard. 

As for not being buyers - I think we're actually in a strong position to make a "three dimes for a quarter" kind of trade, where you trade decent ML talent for a possible stud - like a Desmond, Clipp, and Lannan for something.  We've got clusters of good everyday players at various spots, but lots of otherwise similar players. 

Online imref

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #8: June 13, 2012, 12:55:42 PM »
I'll add, if we could get ryan dempster for lannan and some minor leaguers, I'd do that in a heart beat.  Shawn Marcum is another possibility.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #9: June 13, 2012, 12:58:57 PM »
how about another starter?  Figure we need someone to replace Strasburg come late August-September, and I'm not convinced Detwiler is the guy.  Rosenbaum probably isn't ready.  Who else?  Certainly not Lanan or Maya.    Are there any starters in the last year of their contract who can reliably give us a 3.50 or under ERA and pitch into October?

Why not Lannan? Gio would be the ace, JZ the number 2, Jackson the number 3. It isn't perfect, but it could work.

I mean, we could try and pull a trade for Dempster but the Cubs would want some really young, cheap talent.

Offline NatsDad14

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #10: June 13, 2012, 12:59:03 PM »
What exactly do we have as a glaring weakness? Id argue none of our positions are glaring weaknesses. Maybe another bench bat.

Online imref

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #11: June 13, 2012, 01:08:12 PM »
What exactly do we have as a glaring weakness? Id argue none of our positions are glaring weaknesses. Maybe another bench bat.

A bench/utility guy with some speed who could lead off if need be.

Another SP once Strasburg is capped.

we also only really have one solid RHP in the bullpen right now, but hopefully storen comes back strong.

That's all I can think of.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #12: June 13, 2012, 01:09:17 PM »
I think we're holding with the possible expectation of either a short term outfielder bench bat or bullpen arm

Long term, the outfield is set- Harper and Werth are definite, then Morse if they keep laroche, Moore, Brown, or Lombo if not. Similarly, if they keep laroche, he stays at first, if not Morse. Zimmerman is third. In the middle, they have Desmond, Espinosa and lombo who could all start. Catcher is a cluster now, by Solano has been a nice find, flores has played well, and ramos will be back- no need for a trade. Pitching, the rotation is set (if anything we have a surplus of starters) and the back end of the bullpen is rounding into form since Clippard moved into the closers role

Agreed all-around.  A reliever and some bench help and this team is set.

Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #13: June 13, 2012, 01:11:58 PM »
This could be mindfacting on my part, but hasn't the team really started cooling down on the strikeouts now that Werth isn't there to take strike three? 

Offline Slateman

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #14: June 13, 2012, 01:16:54 PM »
This could be mindfacting on my part, but hasn't the team really started cooling down on the strikeouts now that Werth isn't there to take strike three? 

Mind fact. We have the second most strikeouts in baseball. Most in the NL.

Werth was striking out at a 18% rate. He was far from the worst hitter in that regards.

Offline HerndonNat

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #15: June 13, 2012, 01:17:59 PM »
I'm just worried about giving up more young talent to get someone now.  Would rather take our chances this year and not lose someone for the future.

Offline Skinz72

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #16: June 13, 2012, 01:18:05 PM »
Quote
In the case of both the White Sox and Nationals, I’d actually argue that both have enough glaring weaknesses...

I would agree with the ChiSox having some glaring weaknesses, but what are the Nats "glaring" weaknesses?  Maybe we lack some offensive punch, but our pitching and defense counters that - that's the teams makeup.  Not really "glaring" IMO. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #17: June 13, 2012, 01:20:03 PM »

I would agree with the ChiSox having some glaring weaknesses, but what are the Nats "glaring" weaknesses?  Maybe we lack some offensive punch, but our pitching and defense counters that - that's the teams makeup.  Not really "glaring" IMO. 

Lack of offense
No real leadoff hitter once Werth comes back (and I argue Lombo is better in the number 2 hole)
No starter to take over for Strasburg who won't immediately become the number 5 starter.

Offline PC

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #18: June 13, 2012, 01:42:59 PM »
What exactly do we have as a glaring weakness? Id argue none of our positions are glaring weaknesses. Maybe another bench bat.

I was thinking the same thing.  Not that we don't necessarily have them but it's incredibly lazy to say he can "see glaring weaknesses" and then not name them.

Offline LostYudite

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #19: June 13, 2012, 02:50:09 PM »
Are there any starters in the last year of their contract who can reliably give us a 3.50 or under ERA and pitch into October?

At the risk of sounding like a broken record with the other thread - Greinke.  The only question is how much you'd have to give up to get the guy who might be the NL Cy Young winner for a 3-month rental.

As for glaring weaknesses - it's the offense, really.  The offense looks better now than it did a few weeks ago - we're trending back towards just below middle of the pack, rather than the bottom 3 or four.  Harper's emergence has absolutely changed things in that regard.  We're dead-on league average slugging now, where we weren't before.  Even if you think Harper can't sustain this level for the whole year, Morse, Zimm and Werth's return should counter-balance somewhat.  It may not be as "glaring" as it was, but LF is still a hole and will be at least until Werth gets back.  And don't look now, but all of a sudden Espi and Desmond are about equal and producing at slightly below average.  We've gotten a bit of a dead-cat bounce from being among the worst offenses in the league, but it could still use an upgrade.

If youre thinking about playoffs (and really, we should be), you've got to look at an NLCS where you've got Gio vs. Kershaw, ZNN vs. Billingsley, and EJ vs. Capuano.  Meanwhile, their offense scores a half-run per game more than ours.  There's room to get better. 

Let's not kid ourselves - we've been playing great, and beating all of our expectations, which is great.  But if you're serious about wanting 2012 to be "the year" then you've got some holes to try to fix.

Or, maybe you're ok with getting to the first or second wild-card spot, playing in the play-in game, and taking your chances with what you have, knowing you'll have the same roster mostly in 2013.  I get that, too - but this latest winning streak has me wondering if we might not be really one of the two-three best teams in baseball this year if we just got one or two more pieces.


Offline Slateman

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #20: June 13, 2012, 02:51:13 PM »
At the risk of sounding like a broken record with the other thread - Greinke.  The only question is how much you'd have to give up to get the guy who might be the NL Cy Young winner for a 3-month rental.
What did the Brewers give up for Sabathia?

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #21: June 13, 2012, 03:03:26 PM »
What did the Brewers give up for Sabathia?

LaPorta, who, at the time, was supposed to be a really good slugger was the main piece, arguably Greinke's value is lower if you can't get comp picks for rentals any more

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #22: June 13, 2012, 03:05:43 PM »
LaPorta, who, at the time, was supposed to be a really good slugger was the main piece, arguably Greinke's value is lower if you can't get comp picks for rentals any more

Michael Brantley actually turned out to be the "best" player in that deal. :(

Offline Slateman

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #23: June 13, 2012, 03:18:22 PM »
Could we put something together similar to that deal?

If Moore were to get more playing time (or Marrerro really tear it up in Triple A), it might be a good starting point.

The problem is the Brewers are going to want pitching prospects, and we're short on em. Unless Rizzo wants to trade Detwiler, which I doubt.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
« Reply #24: June 13, 2012, 03:20:15 PM »
No way in hell I'd trade Moore for a rental who won't even yield a comp pick