Author Topic: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread  (Read 172119 times)

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Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #800: October 28, 2012, 09:35:53 PM »
I'm overvaluing a .300 hitter who can hit 30+bombs?

Yes.  Simply because he isn't a guarantee to hit .300 and 30 bombs each year.  He most likely had a career year in 2011.  He is also on the wrong side of 30 and he will start to decline.  He also is injury prone.

We aren't talking Pujols here.  We are talking about a guy who tends to strike out a lot, but when healthy can drive the ball with his massive strength.  He isn't fast and he doesn't field well outside of 1B.

A market for a guy like this isn't going to be bringing the talent you want it to.  Look at the original Adrian Gonzalez trade.  Anthony Rizzo is really the only "top prospect" that was given up.  Casey Kelly has not been effective and Fuentes got rocked in AA.  A-Gone is also held in higher regard than a guy like Morse based upon his skills at 1B and his bat has been potent for quite some time.

Don't get me wrong in that a guy who *could* hit .300 and knock in 30 HR again isn't valuable, but in this SABR day and age, the packages you expect to get in return for a hitter like that don't materialize.  They don't materialize especially if other GM's are skeptical about health, longevity, age, and repeatability which I think many other scouts have thought of with Morse.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #801: October 28, 2012, 09:39:26 PM »
He also is very injury prone, has one year left on his contract, and is bad defensively.

moving morse to first and picking up the comp pick we'll get when laroche walks would be a better choice.  Morse doesn't look like a complete bafoon over at first like he does in left.  Plus, the comp pick in the 35-40 range would be a better prospect than any player you guys think we would get back for morse.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #802: October 28, 2012, 09:42:03 PM »
Yes.  Simply because he isn't a guarantee to hit .300 and 30 bombs each year.  He most likely had a career year in 2011.  He is also on the wrong side of 30 and he will start to decline.  He also is injury prone.

So he most likely had the best year he'll ever have in the only year in the majors that he's ever been fully healthy? 

Offline BrandonK

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #803: October 28, 2012, 09:43:46 PM »
moving morse to first and picking up the comp pick we'll get when laroche walks would be a better choice.  Morse doesn't look like a complete bafoon over at first like he does in left.  Plus, the comp pick in the 35-40 range would be a better prospect than any player you guys think we would get back for morse.

Morse to 1B. Snag Upton for RF, Harper in CF, Werth - LF. If Goodwin isn't in the package for Upton, CF next year with Werth playing some 1B

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #804: October 28, 2012, 09:45:00 PM »
Morse to 1B. Snag Upton for RF, Harper in CF, Werth - LF. If Goodwin isn't in the package for Upton, CF next year with Werth playing some 1B

i like upton but i feel like the nats would want a lefty hitting outfielder because we are a bit righty heavy

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #805: October 28, 2012, 09:48:02 PM »
moving morse to first and picking up the comp pick we'll get when laroche walks would be a better choice.  Morse doesn't look like a complete bafoon over at first like he does in left.  Plus, the comp pick in the 35-40 range would be a better prospect than any player you guys think we would get back for morse.

I agree with this.  I'd rather have Morse plus the pick we get from LaRoche than LaRoche (more expensive, older) plus whatever prospect we get for Morse.

Then either sign a left/center fielder or start Tyler Moore.

I don't think LaRoche is a good bet to stay healthy and productive for the next 3 years, which is what I think it would take to sign him.

If you can sign LaRoche for 2 years, then that may change my opinion.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #806: October 28, 2012, 09:51:56 PM »
moving morse to first and picking up the comp pick we'll get when laroche walks would be a better choice.  Morse doesn't look like a complete bafoon over at first like he does in left.  Plus, the comp pick in the 35-40 range would be a better prospect than any player you guys think we would get back for morse.

Ehh, the comp pick is not necessarily true.  The Nats have been very good at scouting and been very lucky with players falling to them in the draft.  They also have been quite aggressive with their picks.  With the new system, the only reason ANY scout or evaluator said the Nats had a good draft in 2012 is because of Giolito.  That's it.  Just because the team gets a top 30-40 pick doesn't mean that will work out.  This is also considered to be a low talent pool draft with not a lot of "definite" guys.

I'd rather take either pitcher (or both, lol) from Detroit.  They are both high round picks and have been considered by BA to be top 100 prospects.  McCann was also a 2nd round pick and is highly ranked as well.  These guys have shown their stuff in the MiLB which is a stronger test (longer season, more frequent play and much better talent) then High School or College.

Even if you move Morse to 1st, you open up so more cans of worms with him not being as good defensively as LaRoche.  I'm not sure Morse saves the plays and throws from Danny, Desi and Zimm that LaRoche does.  Also the lineup starts to become righty heavy unless the Nats pick up a lefty hitter in FA or in trade, which doesn't look promising.  Also if you take out LaRoche, there are NO lefty power bats sans Harper and that honestly is too much pressure for a 20 year old, especially if he bats 2nd again.  To have a nice balanced lineup, you almost have to retain LaRoche and the Nats know this which is why LaRoche has the majority of the leverage in negotiations.

I really like Mike, but you have to see if you can get power arms and a position player back for him.  Also remember that Young is in a walk year and would be much more expensive than Morse for one year.  Yes, V-Mart comes back as part time catcher and DH, but days that V-Mart can catch, Morse can DH and so on and so forth.  Clippard is actually more appealing to the Tigers probably for being a cost-controllable bullpen resource out of a pen that is in disarray right now.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #807: October 28, 2012, 10:08:47 PM »
What if LaRoche wants 3 years and 40+ million? 

Nats seem to do well in the draft.  They seem to do less well in trades for prospects.  Wilson Ramos worked out great.  HRod, not so much. 

Also, Morse doesn't fit with the Tigers.  Alex Avila is a very good young catcher so VMart won't spend much time there.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #808: October 28, 2012, 10:21:41 PM »
What if LaRoche wants 3 years and 40+ million? 

Nats seem to do well in the draft.  They seem to do less well in trades for prospects.  Wilson Ramos worked out great.  HRod, not so much. 

Also, Morse doesn't fit with the Tigers.  Alex Avila is a very good young catcher so VMart won't spend much time there.

They will have a hole when Delmon Young walks.  I doubt they re-sign him.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #809: October 28, 2012, 11:51:58 PM »
and the countdown begins.  We have 5 days where we have the exclusive negotiating rights to laroche.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #810: October 28, 2012, 11:58:54 PM »
Judging by ho well Rizzo and Co. Draft, I could live with him walking and the Nats getting a pick.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #811: October 29, 2012, 12:07:17 AM »
Contending now > draft picks.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #812: October 29, 2012, 12:20:44 AM »
Judging by ho well Rizzo and Co. Draft, I could live with him walking and the Nats getting a pick.

Draft class this next year isn't really awe inspiring.  Last year was pretty weak and this next year is supposed to be worse.

I think Rizzo and Co. have a better idea that even by sticking Morse or Moore at 1B, with the wild throwers in Zimm and Desi, and the occassional forced throw on a really good dive by Danny, LaRoche has tremendously more defensive value to the Nats infield than to many other teams.

Plus the nice lefty righty middle of the order balance keeps other pitchers from having late inning matchups where they can just use one guy out of the bullpen.  I still think that any prospect acquired through trading Morse and Clippard would be superior to who the Nats may draft if LaRoche declines the qualifying offer.

Offline welch

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #813: October 29, 2012, 12:24:43 AM »
Don't change the team that won for the curly-W's. The only ?? I see is that 5th starter: sign Edwin Jackson? A what price? How do the Nats get Jackson to pitch well consistently? Key: this is a young team that won the most games in MLB in spite of more injuries than I can remember hitting any team that I followed, and I've followed baseball since I was about 4 years old. 1952. Honest: I learned to read by memorizing the back of 1953 baseball cards. "Zack Wheat, Philadelphia A's, won none and lost one". To my five-year old mind, that was the ultimate futility. My Dad still remembers that I would burst out laughing. Ah, the old red glider on 6th Place, NE, just of South Dakota Avenue, when the kids from our block would gather on the porch because it was too hot to play baseball. (Bob Short's Denny McClain was far in the future).

Sign LaRoche, even at 3 years and $40 million. He is worth it. He fields like an infielder. He hits. He's solid.

Morse? He hits. He's not a good LF, but he hits. If 2011 was a career year, then his hitting in 2012 would have been about equal if he had been healthy. Maybe Davey has to find a way to get Morse or Moore time at 1B...but Morse needs to play for the Nats. And so do Lombo, Moore, and Sharkadina. Yes, the team has more starting-quality players than positions, but e have to expect injuries somewhere. My hunch is that Bernadina hit an honest .290, and probably would have hit more if he had played every day. Lombo certainly hit well in August, when he started at 2B.

In fact, I like to see the entire team return. Flores might be extra, assuming Leon or Solanno can be backup catcher if Ramos is not healed. The team need to find a spot for Christian Garcia, maybe as a two-inning relief guy. He was a starter in the Yankees organization, but his arm broke down. Take it slow. So far, the Nats have done that, and I think Garcia will improve. Yet another guy you hope succeeds.

Add that  hope somebody teaches Espinosa to hit line-drives, rather than pretend he is Harmon Killebrew in miniature. Please read Stephen Walker's "It's a Whole new Ballgame" about the 1969 Nats. Special credit: find the quote from our own CALSGR8. Here's what advice Ted Williams would have given to Espi: "you sorry [], I don't care if you hit 17 home runs, you struck out 189 [] [] []ing times you [] [] dog[]. Every time you strike out you might as well stay on the bench. Wave a white []ing flag, you [], cause you're worthless...no, you are a []ing danger to the team and you're lucky I don't shove a bat up your []!!! Now, Nellie says you have potential, so I won't drown you in the Tidal Basin, but I ought to, and I will if you do that [] again!!!"

(Ted was famous, or infamous, for "brutal honesty" with his players.  He hated strikeouts.  He worked with Frank Howard and you can see the change from sloppy-hitting power-Frank to his 1969 season)

No need for a CF. Harper will learn the position, and he has speed and an arm. in AAA the Nats have Eury Perez, who needs a chance to hit major league pitching, and Goodwin should be in AAA by the all-star break...then, holy tamales, by Saints Sam Rice and Goose Goslin: the Nats will be over-loaded with OF.

So when do pitchers and catchers report???

Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #814: October 29, 2012, 12:39:57 AM »
Sign LaRoche, even at 3 years and $40 million. He is worth it. He fields like an infielder. He hits. He's solid.

Yes, he brings a career .270 bat and nearly hits that EVERY year.  He also hits between 25-30 homers each year.  He is a solid defender.  This guy provides a lefty power bat in the lineup in the middle of the order.  I think this decision should be easy for the Nats.

Quote
Morse? He hits. He's not a good LF, but he hits. If 2011 was a career year, then his hitting in 2012 would have been about equal if he had been healthy. Maybe Davey has to find a way to get Morse or Moore time at 1B...but Morse needs to play for the Nats. And so do Lombo, Moore, and Sharkadina. Yes, the team has more starting-quality players than positions, but e have to expect injuries somewhere. My hunch is that Bernadina hit an honest .290, and probably would have hit more if he had played every day. Lombo certainly hit well in August, when he started at 2B.

Only reason I think it's a good idea to trade Morse is because he is out of contract next season.  I don't see him signing a long term deal here considering his age and given the emergence of T-Mo, the Nats get a younger and cheaper option to keep for the future at 1B.

Shark did hit an honest .290, but his flaws at the plate become more exposed when he gets regular playing time.  He is probably the league's best 4th OF though, and deserves to stay with the team.

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In fact, I like to see the entire team return. Flores might be extra, assuming Leon or Solanno can be backup catcher if Ramos is not healed. The team need to find a spot for Christian Garcia, maybe as a two-inning relief guy. He was a starter in the Yankees organization, but his arm broke down. Take it slow. So far, the Nats have done that, and I think Garcia will improve. Yet another guy you hope succeeds.

Flores will be gone as Suzuki is still with the Nats for one more season of his contract.  If Ramos is not ready, Suzuki catches regularly and Leon or Solano starts as the back-up.  Probably Leon at this point.

Garcia is a stud.  He should assume Clippard's role and the organization should shop Clippard hard considering he probably has the highest value and many teams need relievers.

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No need for a CF. Harper will learn the position, and he has speed and an arm. in AAA the Nats have Eury Perez, who needs a chance to hit major league pitching, and Goodwin should be in AAA by the all-star break...then, holy tamales, by Saints Sam Rice and Goose Goslin: the Nats will be over-loaded with OF.

I agree here.  If Morse goes, T-Mo or Shark could play LF.  I think Goodwin is ready by 2014 and assumes CF everyday.  As much as I thought originally it made sense to get a CF now in FA, it's better to just let a 20 year old Harper play there for one more season.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #815: October 29, 2012, 04:40:49 AM »
They will have a hole when Delmon Young walks.  I doubt they re-sign him.

No they won't he should be a dh and they have other guys who will need to be there relatively soon

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #816: October 29, 2012, 11:13:14 AM »
So if the Nats offer the $13 mil qualifying offer (or whatever it is called) to EJax and LaRoche and then they decline, do we get 2 picks for LaRoche and 2 picks for Edwin Jackson?  Or is it 1 pick for each of LaRoche and Jackson?

Rather than drop $12-15 mil on LaRoche, I'd put that money towards another starter and start Morse at 1B. 

I think, if they go with Morse over LaRoche, the Nats would have to sign another lefty bat to ensure Harper wouldn't face lefty specialists once or twice per game. 

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #817: October 29, 2012, 11:54:12 AM »
So if the Nats offer the $13 mil qualifying offer (or whatever it is called) to EJax and LaRoche and then they decline, do we get 2 picks for LaRoche and 2 picks for Edwin Jackson?  Or is it 1 pick for each of LaRoche and Jackson? 

We get one pick for each of them in the comp round right after the first round.  Under the new CBA, the picks that the other team loses just vanish and the rest of the picks move up as opposed to those picks going to the former team of the player.

Offline Boss Dealwiler

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #818: October 29, 2012, 12:00:03 PM »
You people need lives.

Offline welch

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #819: October 29, 2012, 12:14:52 PM »
You people need lives.

I don't know about the others, but I need to see the Nats playing again!

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #820: October 29, 2012, 12:30:55 PM »
You people need lives.

I'm guessing your are about 12 years old, 16 tops.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #821: October 29, 2012, 12:57:38 PM »

Offline WhiteWhale

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Offline BrandonK

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #823: October 29, 2012, 01:53:37 PM »
We get one pick for each of them in the comp round right after the first round.  Under the new CBA, the picks that the other team loses just vanish and the rest of the picks move up as opposed to those picks going to the former team of the player.

that sucks, big time. Morse could would net more than the value of one pick

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #824: October 29, 2012, 02:13:24 PM »
that sucks, big time. Morse could would net more than the value of one pick

Yeah, thanks for explaining the way it works now.  I like this system better.  I remember some teams would trade for impending free agents just to collect draft picks.  I think Rizzo tried to do this with Gomes but got screwed when Gomes tanked and played like crap here.