Gio to Nats

[imref]

interesting note in the fangraph comments - his first pitch strike rate is 53%, versus 60% overall.

Guess what McCatty is going to focus on?

And top 10 comparables over the last 2 years:

(K9, BB9, GB/FB)
Gio Gonzalez (8.23, 4.09, 1.40)

1 Jorge de la Rosa (8.22, 3.84, 1.55)
2 Felipe Paulino (8.37, 3.97, 1.13)
3 Ubaldo Jimenez (8.65, 3.73, 1.41)
4 Ryan Dempster (8.6, 3.62, 1.27)
5 Francisco Liriano (8.62, 3.64, 1.66)
6 C.J. Wilson (7.92, 3.52, 1.51)
7 A.J. Burnett (7.60, 3.85, 1.35)
8 Tom Gorzelanny (7.91, 3.77, 0.89)
9 Jhoulys Chacin (7.66, 4.04, 1.83)
10 James McDonald (7.80, 3.90, 0.86)

[Lintyfresh85]

What's more interesting is that overall his zone % (# of strikes) is normal like all other MLB pitchers. Basically if he starts throwing more strike ones, he'll become dominant.

[Slateman]

sorry if this was already posted - just saw it on MLBTR - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/how-good-is-gio-gonzalez/

ceiling is ubaldo, basement is cabrerra.

So a guy who's already established himself as having All Star ability is suddenly going to become Daniel Cabrerra? Sounds far fetched to me.

[defendyourself15]

So a guy who's already established himself as having All Star ability is suddenly going to become Daniel Cabrerra? Sounds far fetched to me.

Yea I find that difficult to believe.  Not sure if he will be great but don't see him being a Daniel Cabrerra either especially moving to the NL.

[Lintyfresh85]

Did you guys bother to read the article? Nowhere did it say it was likely that he would become Cabrerra.

[imref]

Did you guys bother to read the article? Nowhere did it say it was likely that he would become Cabrerra.

yeah, they just had cabrerra's age-26 season listed as a similar year to what Gio posted. 

[Tyler Durden]

http://www.federalbaseball.com/2011/12/26/2662716/washington-nationals-lefty-gio-gonzalez-trusts-his-fastball

Gio is a lefty but is pretty good against right handed hitters, too.  He held them to a .636 OPS in 2011.

[Baseball is Life]

Good look by Zuckerman on the state of the farm after the Gio trade. The cupboard is not bare (or should I say the future looks Sunshiny?)

http://www.natsinsider.com/2011/12/revised-state-of-farm-system.html

[Lintyfresh85]

Well, he couldn't be more wrong about the guys he profiled.

Meyer "... figures to be on a fast track and shouldn't need much time in the minors" - Not a chance. They'll be lucky if he makes an impact in three years. With his inconsistent delivery, he's going to need a lot of time to figure things out.

"Add a couple of left-handers out of the 2010 draft -- Sammy Solis and Robbie Ray" - Solis blew out his arm, and for whatever reason, every scout that's seen Ray has trashed him in their scouting reports.

I'm still high on the system.. but Zuckerman doesn't have a clue as to what he's talking about.

[Baseball is Life]

Well, he couldn't be more wrong about the guys he profiled.

Meyer "... figures to be on a fast track and shouldn't need much time in the minors" - Not a chance. They'll be lucky if he makes an impact in three years. With his inconsistent delivery, he's going to need a lot of time to figure things out.

"Add a couple of left-handers out of the 2010 draft -- Sammy Solis and Robbie Ray" - Solis blew out his arm, and for whatever reason, every scout that's seen Ray has trashed him in their scouting reports.

I'm still high on the system.. but Zuckerman doesn't have a clue as to what he's talking about.

So who do you like in the system and might have an impact in 2012, besides Harper who will surely be up before the ASB?:~)

[Lintyfresh85]

So who do you like in the system and might have an impact in 2012, besides Harper who will surely be up before the ASB?:~)

No one?

At least not on the major league level. Maybe Lombardozzi if someone gets hurt... but there's no one in the high minors that's going to help the club next year.

[HalfSmokes]

So who do you like in the system and might have an impact in 2012, besides Harper who will surely be up before the ASB?:~)

Lombo? Marrero would have, but he's hurt. Someone will inevitably end up starting at some point (again maybe it would have been Solis, but he's hurt), but probably no one we'd term a 'prospect'

[sportsfan882]

I'd look for RH relief pitcher Rafael Martin to pitch in the Bigs at some point in '12.

But yeah the upper Minors are pretty bare compared to the past few years. Tyler Moore is blocked by multiple guys and he still needs to improve his plate discipline.

[Tyler Durden]

I agree the upper minors are pretty bare right now.

If health holds up, we won't need too many reinforcements.  Maybe a AAAA innings eater type once Stras reaches his innings limit.  Or Stammen/Detwiler/Gorzelanny takes those innigns and Martin goes to the bullpen.

[Vega]

Reinforcements? Easy solution. BRING BACK LIVO

[HalfSmokes]

I agree the upper minors are pretty bare right now.

If health holds up, we won't need too many reinforcements.  Maybe a AAAA innings eater type once Stras reaches his innings limit.  Or Stammen/Detwiler/Gorzelanny takes those innigns and Martin goes to the bullpen.

martin is a marlin now

[HTT]

They are talking about Rafael, not JD.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

SF - wilkie's not a hard thrower but hasn't he been effective?  could he be a middle reliever when Gorzo or someone moves to the rotation late in the year?

[Baseball is Life]

I think Rendon comes up in September if he stays healthy. They'll find some PT for him somewhere, unless of course they are on a playoff drive.:`)

[Lintyfresh85]

Rendon hasn't even proven the ability to make a throw from third to first. Lets not put the cart before the horse with him.

[Ray D]

Rendon hasn't even proven the ability to make a throw from third to first.

Neither has Zimmerman.

(Sorry, I couldn't resist that.)

[GburgNatsFan]

I'm a 'shiner, and even I think BiL is getting ahead of himself.

Rendon hasn't even proven the ability to make a throw from third to first. Lets not put the cart before the horse with him.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Sickels had an interesting take on the deal.  http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/22/2656256/prospects-gio-gonzalez-trade-oakland-athletics-washington-nationals-cole-peacock-milone-norris

He's pretty high on Peacock in the short term and says the Nats gave up 2 potential "front-lineaces."  His view is the As got fair value for Gio.  his concluding paragraph:

It's a win-now, cash-in-chips transaction for the Nationals. From their point of view, Gonzalez is more likely to help them in '12 than Peacock or Milone. If this trade works out for Oakland, they've obtained two pitchers who could be front-line ace starters with Cole and Peacock, a major-league-ready, strike-throwing inning-chewer who consistently defies skeptics in Milone, and a future starting catcher in Norris. As with all trades involving prospects, it is unlikely they will all reach their full potential, but I think the Athletics got fair value.

Hardball Times has some interesting coverage, too.

The widely varying opinions are probably a sign that the Nationals and Athletics made a good trade.

Gonzalez is a big addition for the Nationals, even if he isn’t the ace they wanted. Injuries are always a risk with pitchers, but Gonzalez has been durable throughout his career. The Nationals will count on over 200 innings from their new pitcher.

The reason Gonzalez isn’t seen as an ace by many is because he walks too many batters due to suspect control. As general manager Mike Rizzo pointed out, his walk rate has improved every year – albeit at a slow pace. Gonzalez could also see some statistical improvement from switching to the senior circuit.

The Athletics have to be pretty excited about the prospect package they received. 

He goes through the pluses and minuses of each of our traded guys, and concludes everyone in the deal has potential but warts.

[RobDibblesGhost]

He goes through the pluses and minuses of each of our traded guys, and concludes everyone in the deal has potential but warts.

Sounds painful

[HalfSmokes]

Sounds painful

Braun was involved?