Author Topic: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS  (Read 17132 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline The Chief

  • Posts: 31799
    • http://www.wnff.net
Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #200: October 15, 2012, 10:03:17 PM »
I'm not arguing in favor of one title or the other, but I don't think it should be changed against MorseTheHorse's will at this point.  He made his argument, people responded.  Continued discussion on the matter shouldn't necessitate a title change unless OP wishes to change it himself.

Offline Kevrock

  • Posts: 13788
  • That’s gonna be a no from me, doge.
Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #201: October 15, 2012, 10:16:44 PM »
Shouldn't it be merged into whatever master "Strasburg Shutdown" thread emerged as the champion of the 938475938475345 threads on this subject?

Offline The Chief

  • Posts: 31799
    • http://www.wnff.net
Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #202: October 15, 2012, 10:32:20 PM »
Nah.  We're backing off on merging for now, it's just a waste of time until everyone gets the collapse out of their systems.  Besides, I think this thread IS that thread.

Offline Kevrock

  • Posts: 13788
  • That’s gonna be a no from me, doge.
Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #203: October 15, 2012, 10:39:22 PM »
Nah.  We're backing off on merging for now, it's just a waste of time until everyone gets the collapse out of their systems.

Okay. I do think the title is ridiculous and unproveable, but that reflects on the OP.

Quote
Besides, I think this thread IS that thread.

The ones I was speaking of:

Strasburg in October: http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=26252.msg1109615#msg1109615
Should Strasburg be Shutdown?: http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=27488.msg1118265#msg1118265
Strasburg has been Shutdown: http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=27659.msg1130178#msg1130178

Offline The Chief

  • Posts: 31799
    • http://www.wnff.net
Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #204: October 15, 2012, 10:45:09 PM »
All of those threads ran their course, IMO.  Two of them haven't been posted to in months, the other was somewhat necro'd.  Besides, this is a distinctly different argument centering around the same decision.  But still a different argument.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

  • Posts: 17647
  • babble on
Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #205: October 15, 2012, 10:56:28 PM »
How about the "Is Rizzo the new Kevorkian" thread?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 39371
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #206: October 16, 2012, 09:08:38 AM »
I think near the top of this thread I explained why I do not think this thread should be merged and why it is not a dead issue.  http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=27948.0;msg=1143364

those prior threads were more or less about the plan for Stras's season and the news he would be shut down.  this thread is more dealing with the aftermath of the decision.  There will be year's of discussion about this.  MtH's view, pretty clear in the OP, is that this was a clear error.  Others disagree. That's what threads are for.

Offline shoeshineboy

  • Posts: 7934
  • Walks Kill!! Walks Kill! Walks Kill!!!!
Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #207: October 16, 2012, 09:29:54 AM »
Except The Strasburg "Mistake" implies we would have won if he wasn't shut down. That's impossible to know; he could have crapped the bed as bad as Storen for all we know. Discussion of the topic is fine but the title is very leading as it is. The Strasburg "Decision" is much more appropriate.

This is correct. He could have had two lights out starts and had a major impact. He also would have likely cancelled Det's start, so that would have been lost. So, who knows. He also could have had a bad start (a la Wainright) and then put the morale of the team in the toilet. It is simply impossible to know what would have happened. Saying that if he had not been shutdown we would have won is hogwash, because we don't know if it would have happened or if not shutting him down could have had the opposite impact where he faltered in remaining starts and we ended up losing out to the Braves and/or losing worse in the playoffs.

Again, the only argument is whether they should have opted to protect the player or roll the dice. It's a question of priorities.


Offline PowerBoater69

  • Posts: 14264
    • Twitter
Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #208: October 16, 2012, 09:35:19 AM »
This is correct. He could have had two lights out starts and had a major impact. He also would have likely cancelled Det's start, so that would have been lost. So, who knows. He also could have had a bad start (a la Wainright) and then put the morale of the team in the toilet. It is simply impossible to know what would have happened. Saying that if he had not been shutdown we would have won is hogwash, because we don't know if it would have happened or if not shutting him down could have had the opposite impact where he faltered in remaining starts and we ended up losing out to the Braves and/or losing worse in the playoffs.

Again, the only argument is whether they should have opted to protect the player or roll the dice. It's a question of priorities.

Priorities and probabilities, in my opinion the probability of Stras making a positive impact on the Nats playoff performance was very high, the probability of 4-5 extra starts having a negative long term affect on his career was very low.

Offline MorseTheHorse

  • Posts: 3169
Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #209: October 16, 2012, 10:22:03 AM »
Except The Strasburg "Mistake" implies we would have won if he wasn't shut down.

I disagree this is what it means.  The Decision was a question of priorities and the title implies I thought we prioritized the wrong things (long term health over a better chance at a playoff run this year).

I will also say I find many of the analysis about how Stras would have impacted the series laughably simplistic (it's hard to do much mroe than a simplistic analysis, but to then conclude as many did, "See Stras wouldn't have changed anything" is just silly).  Everything is different with Stras on the lineup, and I mean in a butterfly flapping its wings chaos theory type way.  The whole atmosphere of the series is different.

A few more things

1) Even if we stick to simplistic analysis (which to be fair is all the can really be done) If Stras plays, then Detwiler is in the bullpen.  Detwiler in the bullpen G5 could have been the difference. 

2) I was at Game 5, and had the feeling even when we were up 6-0 of this (going to the NLCS) can't really be happening.  Maybe it's being a DC sports fan all these years, but when it comes to sports I think I'm a bit terrified of success.  But another part of it goes back to the atmosphere created by the shutdown.  The atmosphere created was that the playoffs this year were treated as gravy, and I'm just worried in a few years we will really regret that.

3) All this said, there is much more to blame for the series loss then the Stras shutdown.  Storen, Davey, Danny, Edwin and more come to mind for me.  This isn't a thread about that tho, but I just want to be clear

Offline Ray D

  • Posts: 10073
Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #210: October 16, 2012, 10:29:43 AM »
If Stras plays, then Detwiler is in the bullpen. 

Are you sure about that?  If Strasburg had been on the roster, then someone who was actually on the roster wouldn't have been. Presumably a pitcher.

Offline MorseTheHorse

  • Posts: 3169
Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #211: October 16, 2012, 10:33:06 AM »
Changed the thread title.  After reading the complaints, I looked around at other threads on this board and they seem to be neutrally-titled, so I thought I'd try to do the same here. 

Offline MorseTheHorse

  • Posts: 3169
Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #212: October 16, 2012, 10:34:52 AM »
Are you sure about that?  If Strasburg had been on the roster, then someone who was actually on the roster wouldn't have been. Presumably a pitcher.


I would think so.  Generally speaking starting pitchers>>relief pitchers.  Lance Lynn, Zim and Edwin all came out of the pen this series.  Especially with his history as a reliever, there is no question Det would have made the roster ahead of one of the other relievers. 

Offline NatsDad14

  • Posts: 5241
Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #213: October 16, 2012, 10:49:11 AM »
Are you sure about that?  If Strasburg had been on the roster, then someone who was actually on the roster wouldn't have been. Presumably a pitcher.

He would have replaced Gorzelanny. No loss there


Offline blue911

  • Posts: 18482
Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #214: October 16, 2012, 10:51:20 AM »
He would have replaced Gorzelanny. No loss there



No, he would have replaced Garcia.

Offline Ray D

  • Posts: 10073
Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #215: October 16, 2012, 10:56:52 AM »
No, he would have replaced Garcia.

No matter, I get the point, Detweiler would have replaced one of them.

Offline Ray D

  • Posts: 10073
Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #216: October 16, 2012, 11:00:43 AM »
Changed the thread title. 

You succumbed to the pressure.  Wish you hadn't.   I am a firm supporter of the Strasburg decision, but I really do not like thread title changes.  if the thread title reflects the bias of the poster who initiates the thread, so what?


Offline The Chief

  • Posts: 31799
    • http://www.wnff.net
Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #217: October 16, 2012, 11:01:17 AM »
You succumbed to the pressure.  Wish you hadn't.   I am a firm supporter of the Strasburg decision, but I really do not like thread title changes.  if the thread title reflects the bias of the poster who initiates the thread, so what?

100% Agree with this.

Offline NatsDad14

  • Posts: 5241
Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #218: October 16, 2012, 11:05:10 AM »
No, he would have replaced Garcia.

Not at all. It wouldn't make sense to have 4 lefties in the bullpen vs. a team with no lefty power hitters. He would have replaced Gorzelanny or Gonzalez.

Offline MorseTheHorse

  • Posts: 3169
Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #219: October 16, 2012, 11:07:48 AM »
Heh can't ever win=)

Offline Tyler Durden

  • Posts: 7970
  • Leprechaun
Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #220: October 16, 2012, 11:09:37 AM »
I disagree this is what it means.  The Decision was a question of priorities and the title implies I thought we prioritized the wrong things (long term health over a better chance at a playoff run this year).

I will also say I find many of the analysis about how Stras would have impacted the series laughably simplistic (it's hard to do much mroe than a simplistic analysis, but to then conclude as many did, "See Stras wouldn't have changed anything" is just silly).  Everything is different with Stras on the lineup, and I mean in a butterfly flapping its wings chaos theory type way.  The whole atmosphere of the series is different.



Horse - Some good points in your comments and i wanted to address this one.  If Stras started and the atmosphere became more intense with a bigger spotlight and more pressure, would that have necessarily been a good thing?  The Nats already had a bunch of young guys facing that kind of intensity for the first time.  For the most part, they generally wilted - JZ, Gio, Storen, etc.

Offline Fan037

  • Posts: 1692
Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #221: October 16, 2012, 11:14:24 AM »
Changed the thread title.  After reading the complaints, I looked around at other threads on this board and they seem to be neutrally-titled, so I thought I'd try to do the same here. 

Not that you had to but I think it makes good sense that you changed the title.  Stating it was a "mistake" to shut  down Strasburg is something none of us will ever know.   

Offline MorseTheHorse

  • Posts: 3169
Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #222: October 16, 2012, 11:17:33 AM »
Horse - Some good points in your comments and i wanted to address this one.  If Stras started and the atmosphere became more intense with a bigger spotlight and more pressure, would that have necessarily been a good thing?  The Nats already had a bunch of young guys facing that kind of intensity for the first time.  For the most part, they generally wilted - JZ, Gio, Storen, etc.

First, thanks.  Second, absolutely possible.  Hopefully we'll be able to find out next playoffs what this team looks like going into a series with lots of national attention as the clear favorites to win. 

Offline NationalHeat

  • Posts: 697
Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #223: October 16, 2012, 11:17:48 AM »
I think I read somewhere that Stras could'bve give the team about 0.5 more runs. Think Boz said that.

Offline blue911

  • Posts: 18482
Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #224: October 16, 2012, 11:19:53 AM »
Not at all. It wouldn't make sense to have 4 lefties in the bullpen vs. a team with no lefty power hitters. He would have replaced Gorzelanny or Gonzalez.

Davey and Rizzo are both loyal to a fault. Regardless of what "makes sense" Garcia would be the odd man out.