Author Topic: The Espinosa watch thread (Read 11233 times)

The Chief · « **Topic Start:** April 21, 2012, 05:02:08 PM »

In this thread, no particular strikeout paces have been mentioned, especially not absurd ones.

Once an Expos Fan · « **Reply #1:** April 21, 2012, 05:04:45 PM »

Danny has too much swag not to turn it around.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #2:** April 21, 2012, 05:20:09 PM »

It's the absence of power that bears watching. It seems he has changed his plate approach to go deeper in counts than last year at this time. BB% is up 6%, as is K%, in comparison to last April. AVG is down slightly, OBP is up slightly, but ISO is down about 50% (.148 to .078). Nearly doubled his walk rate but power disappearing is the biggest change this year.

Minty Fresh · « **Reply #3:** April 21, 2012, 05:43:32 PM »

Quote from: Once an Expos Fan on April 21, 2012, 05:04:45 PM

Danny has too much swag not to turn it around.

What is . . . I don't . . .

Once an Expos Fan · « **Reply #4:** April 21, 2012, 11:01:36 PM »

Quote from: Minty Fresh on April 21, 2012, 05:43:32 PM

What is . . . I don't . . .

...it's..umm...well...

RyanZimsKazoo · « **Reply #5:** April 21, 2012, 11:07:07 PM »

Quote from: Once an Expos Fan on April 21, 2012, 11:01:36 PM

...it's..umm...well...

welch · « **Reply #6:** April 22, 2012, 02:36:13 PM »

Maybe it's time for Espinosa to lose the swagger and...don't tell FP...change his approach to hitting?

Quick stat: hitting .218, which is typical. More walks, which is good, giving him an OB% of about .323, which is not Eddie Yost territory. OPS a little above .600 (.614, to be exact). That's better hitting than Bernadina, Derosa, and Nady, but ouch!

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #7:** April 22, 2012, 05:40:03 PM »

Welch - Digging a bit more, the two big changes for Danny this year are:

1) His walk rate has gone from 8.7% to 13.6% (50+% increase). He's not striking out all that much more (his K rate is up from 25.2% to 27.3%) (using B-R here)

2) He has switched from being primarily a fly ball hitter, with the associated HRs, to being primarily a ground ball hitter, with the drop in HRs and extra base hits. His Isolated Power (SLG- AVG) is less than half last year's (from .178 to .073). Using Fangraphs here

Also, it isn't a big change, but he is making slightly more contact when he swings, not less (78% of swings rather than 75%), and swinging slightly more often (2%).

He seems to be trying to hit like a #2 hitter, rather than like Danny Espinosa. Maybe it is a bad fit, as others have said.

madj55 · « **Reply #8:** April 27, 2012, 12:46:35 AM »

Needs to switch back to #18 or something cause whatever he is doing is not working whatsoever

RobDibblesGhost · « **Reply #9:** April 27, 2012, 12:54:26 AM »

He needs to sit in favor of Lombo.

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #10:** April 27, 2012, 07:52:27 AM »

the Mendoza line is sneaking up on him

sportsfan882 · « **Reply #11:** April 27, 2012, 08:08:01 AM »

.209/.308/.269 with 21 Ks and only two extra base hits in 67 ABs. .576 OPS.

spidernat · « **Reply #12:** April 27, 2012, 09:09:25 AM »

The table setters on this team are MIA.

aussienatsfan · « **Reply #13:** April 27, 2012, 09:18:57 AM »

Surely he knows he's a better right-handed hitter than he is a switch hitter. Just take all your ABs right handed and he might be hitting more like .260 IMO

LostYudite · « **Reply #14:** April 27, 2012, 09:25:02 AM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on April 22, 2012, 05:40:03 PM

Welch - Digging a bit more, the two big changes for Danny this year are:

1) His walk rate has gone from 8.7% to 13.6% (50+% increase). He's not striking out all that much more (his K rate is up from 25.2% to 27.3%) (using B-R here)

2) He has switched from being primarily a fly ball hitter, with the associated HRs, to being primarily a ground ball hitter, with the drop in HRs and extra base hits. His Isolated Power (SLG- AVG) is less than half last year's (from .178 to .073). Using Fangraphs here

Also, it isn't a big change, but he is making slightly more contact when he swings, not less (78% of swings rather than 75%), and swinging slightly more often (2%).

He seems to be trying to hit like a #2 hitter, rather than like Danny Espinosa. Maybe it is a bad fit, as others have said.

This is really interesting - I wonder if he's trying to slap more singles to get his BA up and get on for Zimm and the boys. I'm actually not bothered by the BA and like the walks - to me - just go back to swinging for power. Lord knows this team needs it.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #15:** April 27, 2012, 09:26:28 AM »

I'm about done with Danny. His tools don't translate all that well if he's not willing to swing for the fences.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #16:** April 27, 2012, 09:40:23 AM »

Et tu, Lint-ay?

We all said at the start of the year this guy is better around #6 / #7 in the order than #2. He has changed his style for what is perceived to be the role of a #2 hitter, sacrificing power to work longer counts. It does not help when the guy in front of him is swinging at first pitches constantly. That kind of forces the #2 hitter to work the count.

Any game Lombo is in, he should be #1 or #2, and Espinosa should be lower in the order (or, perhaps Desmond, but I think he has been closer to adequate).

I'm not a ballplayer so I can't get into the psyche of players when their roles change. I can see a guy who hits like he'd be a great #2 hitter, like perhaps Werth, but when those guys get shifted to that slot, their approach changes and they don't do the things you want them to. I think this is the case for Desmond and Espinosa. Desmond has to hit at the top of the order to have any value, and he needs to be hyper aggressive when he bats. I think those two things are incompatible, but that is where he is. Danny, OTOH, needs to just rip, accept the strikeouts, and take the walks when they come. He can't seem to do that at #2. He tries to darn hard to take counts deep and go with what is given to him, and that is not his game.

hammondsnats · « **Reply #17:** April 27, 2012, 10:27:27 AM »

boswell killed him last night on twitter saying he better get it going or it'll be time for him to sit on the bench and watch lombo a few times a week.

i think he'll get through it. desmond too.

at least i hope they do

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #18:** April 27, 2012, 10:30:24 AM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on April 27, 2012, 09:40:23 AM

Danny, OTOH, needs to just rip, accept the strikeouts, and take the walks when they come.

I realize OBP matters more than average, but if he drops sub .200, average has to start mattering

The Chief · « **Reply #19:** April 27, 2012, 10:36:54 AM »

If Danny is so bad from the left side, why does he keep batting from it?

hammondsnats · « **Reply #20:** April 27, 2012, 10:38:04 AM »

Quote from: The Chief on April 27, 2012, 10:36:54 AM

If Danny is so bad from the left side, why does he keep batting from it?

because rizzo feels its important to not ... make us an OK major league team

i think b/c they like the fact he "can" hit from both sides.

Kevrock · « **Reply #21:** April 27, 2012, 10:44:46 AM »

Well supposedly that's his natural side and he batted better as a LHB in the minors. Let me see if I can find the minor league splits.

Edit: Well, actually:

http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/mlsplits/playerinfo/457787

The Chief · « **Reply #22:** April 27, 2012, 10:57:23 AM »

Right, I've seen that mentioned plenty of times and I accept it, but it doesn't seem to be working for him with the big club. 3/4 of his dingers last year were from the left side, but so were 3/4 of his ABs. Even ignoring that, his numbers from the left are pretty terrible.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #23:** April 27, 2012, 11:21:50 AM »

HalfSmokes:

Quote

I realize OBP matters more than average, but if he drops sub .200, average has to start mattering

Not saying anything to the contrary. I'm saying he can get back to his .230 - .250 if he stops being so defensive, looking to be a little opposite field pest, and goes back to the guy who rips at the ball and tries to elevate it with some thump. At this point, i don't even think that means more strikeouts. His Ks are trending negatively the past week, anyway. His average will come up once he goes back to his more natural approach.

Edit - by "take the walks when they come," I mean don't go looking for walks. Go up looking to rip the ball. If a walk happens, great, but don't concentrate on 6 pitch at bats, long counts, and trying for BBs.

LostYudite · « **Reply #24:** April 27, 2012, 11:25:23 AM »

Quote from: The Chief on April 27, 2012, 10:57:23 AM

Right, I've seen that mentioned plenty of times and I accept it, but it doesn't seem to be working for him with the big club. 3/4 of his dingers last year were from the left side, but so were 3/4 of his ABs. Even ignoring that, his numbers from the left are pretty terrible.

Agreed, but I don't know that just giving up and batting righty against righties would necessarily be any better. I really do think he may just be trying to do what he thinks "a #2 guy" should be doing, instead of just hitting the way he hits. In that aspect he needs to be a little like Ian "Screw It, I'm Swinging," Desmond.

FP was funny about that after the first AB last night. Ian flew out after swinging on teh first pitch. FP said "Hey, so what's he got? Fastball."

It wouldn't surprise me if that's leading Espi to pressure himself to take a few more pitches, leading to more walks, but also more defensive swings later in counts, so more GBs.