Author Topic: Strasburg in October..  (Read 44035 times)

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Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #25: April 19, 2012, 02:48:37 PM »

Offline LostYudite

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #26: April 19, 2012, 02:50:55 PM »
Is Detwiler on an innings limit too?  He's never pitched a ton of innings either.

I think you're forgetting his MiLB innings.  He did 124 in 2008, 150-ish in 2009 and 2011.  2010 he only did 73, but that's cos he had the hip injury.  He should be fine for 180-200 this year - plenty to go if he spends a couple weeks in the pen.

Besides, as Chief will tell you, he only ever pitches five innings per outing, so.... :stir:

Offline natinthehat

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #27: April 19, 2012, 02:52:15 PM »
I agree with the decision to shut him down.  But does that mean he's left off the postseason roster or would he possibly be available for limited relief appearances?

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #28: April 19, 2012, 02:53:50 PM »
what does Mark Prior prove?  That pitchers get hurt, and probably the risk of injury goes up as the number of innings pitched in a season goes up.  Great.  We all already agreed on this. 

There is a risk to everything in life...maybe that's why we sit on WNFF and post all day=) 

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #29: April 19, 2012, 02:56:44 PM »
I agree with the decision to shut him down.  But does that mean he's left off the postseason roster or would he possibly be available for limited relief appearances?

Probably shut down completely and left off the roster.

If he relieved he would certainly be throwing at max effort, which is probably not what they want.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #30: April 19, 2012, 02:57:09 PM »
Besides, as Chief will tell you, he only ever pitches five innings per outing, so.... :stir:

Not sure if you're baiting me or someone else, but so far this season, that's true**

Also what I actually said was that a lot of people were getting prematurely excited about 5 good innings.

Offline LostYudite

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #31: April 19, 2012, 03:15:53 PM »
Not sure if you're baiting me or someone else, but so far this season, that's true**

Also what I actually said was that a lot of people were getting prematurely excited about 5 good innings.

Not really baiting - and I think you were also giving bambi a hard time that he wasn't able to go longer than that (says somebody who was definitely prematurely excited about 5 good innings).

Back on the Strasburg/Prior thing - Prior threw a LOT of innings in college - i had never looked at his stats before.  He was routinely throwing 120-140 IP in college, then came to the pros, threw 160+ his first year and 211 his second year and wasn't the same afterwards.  That's a lot of innings on an arm less than 23 years old. 

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #32: April 19, 2012, 03:26:10 PM »
Prior is not a fair comparrison for about a billion reasons.

http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/2010/06/10/stras-wars-ii-the-prior-strikes-back/

Quote
Prior has taken a really bad rap for his mechanics, due to the disappointment that resulted from his meeting the fate of so many pitchers before him, despite having a delivery that had been labeled as “perfect.” The fact is that most of Prior’s injury problems had nothing to do with throwing a baseball, despite his posting some of the heaviest workloads in the Major Leagues while still sailing through the rough seas of the injury nexus.
The injuries that Prior endured were traumatic. First was the collision with Marcus Giles, a baserunning gaffe that caused damage to Prior’s shoulder in July of 2003. The injury would cost Prior his trip to the All Star game, but he only missed a few starts before coming back to the mound in early August. The then 22-year old pitched the rest of the season with no ill effects, going 10-1 with a 1.52 ERA in the 2nd half and finishing 4th in the majors for Pitcher Abuse Points, despite missing some time.

In May of 2005 there was the 100+ mph line drive off the bat of Brad Hawpe that drilled Prior in the pitching elbow, resulting in a compression fracture. Again, Prior came back quickly, missing just a month before returning to the mound on June 26. Once again he ranked among the top pitchers in baseball for PAP by the end of the season, finishing with the 3rd-highest total despite having 6 fewer starts than the other guys on the list.

Things began to fall apart in the Spring of 2006, and shoulder woes have plagued Prior ever since. A 2007 exploratory surgery by Dr. James Andrews revealed structural damage in the shoulder, and suggested that Prior may have never fully recovered from the Giles collision.


It has been almost four years since Prior’s last Major League pitch, and the primary cause of his pain is still a mystery. Maybe he came back too soon from his injuries, or perhaps his arm could not handle the extreme workloads incurred during the injury nexus. It could have been a conspiracy of factors, with a lethal combination of heavy workloads on a developing arm that was still recovering from injury during the 2003 and 2005 seasons. Perhaps the mechanics were somewhat responsible, though it’s a tribute to Prior’s mechanical efficiency that he performed as well as he did despite all of the obstacles.

I am pretty comfortable with the Prior comparison for Stephen Strasburg given all of their similarities, with the caveat that the comp is a good thing. I still look at Mark Prior’s delivery and see excellence, and Strasburg’s delivery stirs up more excitement than any pitcher I have seen since Prior was mowing down hitters five years ago.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #33: April 19, 2012, 03:29:07 PM »
I miss Prior. Dude was the prototype of what a pitcher was supposed to be.

Too bad he couldn't stay healthy.

Offline imref

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #34: April 19, 2012, 03:30:44 PM »
what does Mark Prior prove?  That pitchers get hurt, and probably the risk of injury goes up as the number of innings pitched in a season goes up.  Great.  We all already agreed on this. 

There is a risk to everything in life...maybe that's why we sit on WNFF and post all day=) 

Prior's injuries included an achillies tendon pull, and getting nailed with a come-backer that resulted in a compound fracture before his shoulder gave out.  He lost 2 starts in 5-years to pitching-related injuries.  Not a fair comparison at all.

Offline imref

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #35: April 19, 2012, 03:31:22 PM »
Yeah, sure he's not.  Just like ZNN wasn't on a 160 inning limit.  See?  He pitched 161!

He's going to be limited somewhere in that neighborhood.  If he has to make one extra start to get to 165 or so to qualify for ERA trophies/CY, etc. then so be it, but there's no way he goes far north of 170.

this.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #36: April 19, 2012, 03:44:16 PM »
Strasburg is a great pitcher. But from what I've seen so far this season, he isn't a significantly better pitcher than Gio Gonzalez or Jordan Zimmerman, and we still have Jackson, Deteweiler, and Wang.   If we are a real playoff contender in late July, Rizzo can acquire another top notch starter.  The Astros will be begging to unload Wandy Rodriguez for example.  We'll have a full compliment of of starters to go into the playoffs.   

I love Strasburg and would love to watch him pitch all season and well into October but it isn't going to happen, it isn't worth the risk, and we can make it without him.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #37: April 19, 2012, 04:00:02 PM »
I care more about the next 10 years than this 1 year. We are trying to build a perennial playoff contender and you don't do that by monkeying around with the most valuable arm in the franchise.

Offline GOON

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #38: April 19, 2012, 05:50:19 PM »
Here's my deal with this:

Hypothetically, what if we finish with the best record in the National League or at least make the playoffs?  What if we do that and shut down Strasburg and whoever takes his place in the playoff rotation is a huge bust production wise in the postseason?  What if we would of won the World Series had Strasburg started in the postseason?

Hypothetically, what if Bryce Harper ends up being a bust?  What if Strasburg ends up with nagging injuries even if we keep him within the 160-180 innings limit?  What if Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez end up with nagging injures of their own and never become the elite pitchers they have the potential to be?

I know that all the hypotheticals that I listed are huge, but they're all well within the realm of possibility.  The future greatness of this team isn't guaranteed.  If we have a shot to win the World Series in 2012, we take it.  We don't know what the future holds and we don't know if we will ever get back to the point where we have a shot to win the entire thing again. 

Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #39: April 19, 2012, 05:54:57 PM »
Then we blow our brains out and pretend like our lives never happened.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #40: April 19, 2012, 05:57:01 PM »
You can drive yourself crazy with all the hypotheticals. All you can do is plan on the most logical thing to do, which is to not risk your prized pitcher's arm given the medical knowledge you have. And hope for the best.

Trying to keep it simple.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #41: April 19, 2012, 05:58:00 PM »
Then we blow our brains out and pretend like our lives never happened.

I think I would have blown my brains out if I read all those hypotheticals. I limit myself to two "ifs" per paragraph.

Offline 114D

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #42: April 19, 2012, 05:59:06 PM »
Strasburg is a great pitcher. But from what I've seen so far this season, he isn't a significantly better pitcher than Gio Gonzalez or Jordan Zimmerman, and we still have Jackson, Deteweiler, and Wang.   If we are a real playoff contender in late July, Rizzo can acquire another top notch starter.  The Astros will be begging to unload Wandy Rodriguez for example.  We'll have a full compliment of of starters to go into the playoffs.   

I love Strasburg and would love to watch him pitch all season and well into October but it isn't going to happen, it isn't worth the risk, and we can make it without him.


The fact that he's not a ton better than Gio or JZ is irrelevant.  He's a ton better than Edwin Jackson, Detwiler, or CMW.  A playoff rotation of SS-GG-JZ is freaking dynamite.  A playoff rotation of GG-JZ-crapshoot is significantly worse.  I'd settle for SS-GG-JZ-crapshoot-SS-GG-JZ or even just give one start to SS.  One start per playoff round isn't going to ruin his arm but could mean a ton to the team. 

Offline GOON

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #43: April 19, 2012, 06:00:32 PM »
Oh, I understand that all those hypotheticals are huge.  My point is that you don't waste a shot at a championship.  If we are 100% committed to shutting Strasburg down when he reaches his inning limit, we should make a deal at the deadline for another quality starter.  We can't waste a shot at a championship.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #44: April 19, 2012, 06:02:56 PM »

  What if we do that and shut down Strasburg and whoever takes his place in the playoff rotation is a huge bust production wise in the postseason? 

What if we take the risk, keep Strasburg pitching,  and he's a bust in the postseason?


Offline Ray D

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #45: April 19, 2012, 06:07:26 PM »
We can't waste a shot at a championship.
Strasburg doesn't guarantee a championship.  Not having him doesn't preclude a championship.   But to me this is all irrelevant, I'm just going to enjoy the season.  You should too.


Offline Kevrock

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #46: April 19, 2012, 06:11:01 PM »
Shoot. I agree with BiL. This thread is Leo Davidson.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #47: April 19, 2012, 06:12:28 PM »
Strasburg doesn't guarantee a championship.  Not having him doesn't preclude a championship.   But to me this is all irrelevant, I'm just going to enjoy the season.  You should too.



It really is irrelevant because they are already said they would shut him down. But I guess second-guessing is what the interwebs is all about.

In my case, I just don't see how you ever risk any athlete's health for a shot at the playoffs, realistic or not.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #48: April 19, 2012, 06:14:25 PM »
Shoot. I agree with BiL. This thread is Leo Davidson.

Way cool.  But I don't get the Leo Davidson joke.

Offline RL04

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #49: April 20, 2012, 11:44:46 AM »
My opinion, FWIW, is that we have 7 competent starters on the 40 man roster.   With this many arms it shouldn't be hard to give Stras (and J. Zim for that matter) a few breaks here and there so that they can pitch into October if necessary.


This.

Though I'm not opposed to a constant weird rotation (in order to have St. Stephen pitch less often) but I know it will never happen.

But I don't see why they can't, every so often, do a pitching version of the "day game after a night game" sort of thing for him.