Probabilities have no power at all. They are like stats, they are a way to measure things and predict the likelihood of potential outcomes. But they DO NOT influence real events. To the contrary, REAL EVENTS are what count, and they in turn drive probabilities.
The lineup you field, the pitchers you have going for you, the opposition's personnel, even psychological factors, affect the odds. The odds don't affect the odds, that's just silly.
Odds stole my lunch money once.
You are right on, but people see the Monty Hall problem and think that some magic happens after the goat is revealed.
