One thing to think about with Fister is that he has mostly been a guy whose defense independent pitching projections are close to his ERA. 3.40 ERA for his career, 3.50 FIP (xFIP and SIERA are a bit higher at 3.69 and 3.77). This year is the first year since 2009 where ERA and FIP have been more than a run apart. That suggests some increase in the ERA is quite possible.
His HR/FB rate is close to his last two years in Detroit now. Groundball rate is down a bit from 2012 and 2013. BABIP at .273 is low for a groundball, low K pitcher and low for him. Lefties are hitting Flies off him nearly as often as they are hitting grounders (40% GB, 38% FB); they aren't popping out (4.7%), but the HR/FB is low (7.4%) in comparison to 2013 (9.7%) and 2012 (10.0%). Vs. righties, he's gone from ~3:1 GB:FB (60:20) in 2012 and 2013 to less than 2:1 (55:30), and righties are taking him deep at roughly double his career rate (14.5% v. 8.8%) (2012 HR/FB was comparable to 2014, but 2013 was 7.4%). Also has had drop in pop out rate v. righties.
My point here in the playoff rotation thread goes back to the JZ v. Fister and what to expect in the playoffs argument. I think expecting Fister to duplicate the ERA advantage he has had over JZ so far this year, which is a big part of the argument he should start games 1 and potential game 5 in the NLDS, is a shaky prediction based on the numerous yellow flags that suggest his ERA is due to rise. That said, you can make the experience argument in his favor.
NJ - your turn.
