Edwin Jackson - no qualifying offer??

[Hondo]

If Rizzo is telling the truth about why Jackson didn't get a offer, I think it's a sign that he is thinking big. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Not sure where you get Lannan is a 5 inning pitcher.  I'm not a huge fan of the definition of quality start because of the ER aspect, but Lannan has a career 54% QS (48% in 2010 and 2011).  That's at least 6 full innings. So, more often than not, he's not turning the ball over to the bullpen before the 7th.

edit - for his career, he's 5.85 innings per game started.  MLB average is 5.9. Lannan's not quite 6, but very close - 1/2 an out from 6.  By contrast, Jackson is 6 on the button for his career, and 6.1 (one tenth) last year.  To be frank, last year was an off year for jackson.

[Squab]

Not sure where you get Lannan is a 5 inning pitcher.  I'm not a huge fan of the definition of quality start because of the ER aspect, but Lannan has a career 54% QS (48% in 2010 and 2011).  That's at least 6 full innings. So, more often than not, he's not turning the ball over to the bullpen before the 7th.

edit - for his career, he's 5.85 innings per game started.  MLB average is 5.9. Lannan's not quite 6, but very close - 1/2 an out from 6.  By contrast, Jackson is 6 on the button for his career, and 6.1 (one tenth) last year.  To be frank, last year was an off year for jackson.

Right, I'm not saying he is strictly a five inning guy. But if you plot him on a graph between five inning guy and workhorse he leans toward five innings. Where as someone like Dan Haren is an example of a workhorse.

[Ray D]

Lannan has seemed to me to be a two-times-through-the-lineup type of pitcher.  He can get a batter out once, often twice, but by the third appearance a batter has seen him twice and has him figured out.  Of course there are exceptions, he's had some outstanding performances going deep into games. But those are the exceptions. 

If  he's not putting anyone on base, he can go a solid six, and starts to lose effectiveness in the seventh.  If he's putting runners on base then he's seeing batters a third time during the sixth inning and often doesn't complete six.

And then of course he has his days where he can't get through the lineup twice.

All together, he's a 5+ inning pitcher.

[comish4lif]

Here's the innings per start data for Lannan's 2011 season:

Innings    Count
2       1
2 1/3   1
3       1
3 1/3   1
5       5
5 1/3   2
5 2/3   5 <---- 16 starts where he couldn't complete the 6th inning
6       7  <---- 17 starts where he completed at least the 6th inning
6 1/3   3
6 2/3   2
7       4
7 2/3   1

'11 Times Throu Order          PA   BA   OBP   SLG
1st PA in G, as SP             310   .227   .310   .366
2nd PA in G, as SP             285   .323   .396   .407
3rd PA in G, as SP             206   .263   .332   .387
4th+ PA in G, as SP                 7   .429   .429   .714

[Tyler Durden]

Where are innings pitched per start broken down?  fangraphs doesn't appear to do it and neither does baseball-reference.

[Squab]

Where are innings pitched per start broken down?  fangraphs doesn't appear to do it and neither does baseball-reference.

I just look at the game logs.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Go to the player page on Baseball Reference, click on more pitching stats, and then look the set of stats for "as Starter" about 2/3 of the way down.

[Tyler Durden]

Go to the player page on Baseball Reference, click on more pitching stats, and then look the set of stats for "as Starter" about 2/3 of the way down.

Is there a ranking out there?  Or do you have to look at each player individually?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

tyler - enjoy!

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2012-starter-pitching.shtml

Dickey and Lee were the only 2 NL pticher to reach 7+ IP/GS.

[comish4lif]

Where are innings pitched per start broken down?  fangraphs doesn't appear to do it and neither does baseball-reference.

I actually pulled some of that stuff into Excel earlier in the week, so, I had Lannan's game log from 2011. Then I just made a quick pivot table to get the counts by innings...

I initially grabbed the data to compare the standard deviations of the game scores of Edwin Jackson, vs the rest of the Nats starters. EJax has the highest standard deviation within his game scores.

[NatsTheFats]

I don't remember Lannan being the type to reliably get into the 7th inning.  I thought of him more of a 5 inning guy.  Maybe I'm being unfair to him.

Lannan is a 5 inning guy,  you nailed it. 

[Tyler Durden]

Thanks for the link.  Pretty interesting.  Lannan came in at 5.4 innings/start this year.

Guthrie, in the AL and in a relatively difficult year for him, went 6.5 innings/start.  If he doesn't slow down too much due to age, I think he'd be a decent pickup.

[Tyler Durden]

I actually pulled some of that stuff into Excel earlier in the week, so, I had Lannan's game log from 2011. Then I just made a quick pivot table to get the counts by innings...

I initially grabbed the data to compare the standard deviations of the game scores of Edwin Jackson, vs the rest of the Nats starters. EJax has the highest standard deviation within his game scores.

This pretty much squares with what I recall - he had that complete game on 90 pitches or whatever and some other really good starts and then he's had some total meltdowns.

[HalfSmokes]

This pretty much squares with what I recall - he had that complete game on 90 pitches or whatever and some other really good starts and then he's had some total meltdowns.

He's the prototype of what I want in a number 5- he threw away a bunch games, that's why he isn't a 1,2,3 or even 4, but he was absolutely dominate when he was on, unfortunately, he doesnt want to be paid like a 5

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Well, that 5.4 this year was his worst and achieved in only 6 starts.  he had one stinker in which he was pulled early, which will lower his average.  5.6 in 2011, but he had a ton of innings. His best 2 years in terms of innings per start were his first two, and he's closer to 5 2/3 in 2010 and 2011.

To put things in perspective, league average in the NL in 2012 was 5.9 innings among qualified starters.  I guess you can say he is slightly below average in terms of his ability to go deep into games, but he is a non-ace, not the second coming of Cliff Lee.

[Tyler Durden]

He's the prototype of what I want in a number 5- he threw away a bunch games, that's why he isn't a 1,2,3 or even 4, but he was absolutely dominate when he was on, unfortunately, he doesnt want to be paid like a 5

I'd rather have the opposite as a number 5 - a guy who will go out and consistently be mildly below average.  Having to pitch the bullpen 5 or 6 innings in the meltdown games adds up to lots of innings for the pen.

[Tyler Durden]

Well, that 5.4 this year was his worst and achieved in only 6 starts.  he had one stinker in which he was pulled early, which will lower his average.  5.6 in 2011, but he had a ton of innings. His best 2 years in terms of innings per start were his first two, and he's closer to 5 2/3 in 2010 and 2011.

To put things in perspective, league average in the NL in 2012 was 5.9 innings among qualified starters.  I guess you can say he is slightly below average in terms of his ability to go deep into games, but he is a non-ace, not the second coming of Cliff Lee.

This is about Lannan, correct?  If he could just cut down on the walks, he'd be fine.  He doesn't need to pitch a sub 3 ERA or be Strasburg to be effective.  Just pitch 6 innings and give up 3 or 4 runs and that's good enough for the #5 guy.

[tomterp]

4 runs per 6 innings is Simontacci territory.

[NJ Ave]

Just pitch 6 innings and give up 3 or 4 runs and that's good enough for the #5 guy.

If we're setting the bar this low lets go get Livo. He can probably still throw up the 5.25 ERA you're talking about.

In all seriousness, I wouldn't mind Lannan on a 1/$3 million deal or something. We wouldn't be relying on him to pitch in the playoffs, and our 5th starter +- 1 WAR is really not going to affect whether we make the playoffs or not.

However, I have an expectation of modest payroll improvements now that we're a playoff team. So if they cheap out on the 5th starter, I would hope they extend Desmond and Zimmermann (or something equivalent). In fact, that might be my preference.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

More than likely, don't you think they wait until January for a guy like a Marcum or a Villanueva (or Lannan) whose market does not develop and offer him a pillow contract?   It's either go big via trade (with the Rays) or get one the guys who is in the same situation Jackson was in last year.

[Squab]

More than likely, don't you think they wait until January for a guy like a Marcum or a Villanueva (or Lannan) whose market does not develop and offer him a pillow contract?   It's either go big via trade (with the Rays) or get one the guys who is in the same situation Jackson was in last year.

I'd like to think the recent success would urge them to go a little bigger in free agency. They probably won't spend the money to sign Greinke, but there are other options that will be less of a commitment that are still good.

[HalfSmokes]

If we're setting the bar this low lets go get Livo. He can probably still throw up the 5.25 ERA you're talking about.

In all seriousness, I wouldn't mind Lannan on a 1/$3 million deal or something. We wouldn't be relying on him to pitch in the playoffs, and our 5th starter +- 1 WAR is really not going to affect whether we make the playoffs or not.

However, I have an expectation of modest payroll improvements now that we're a playoff team. So if they cheap out on the 5th starter, I would hope they extend Desmond and Zimmermann (or something equivalent). In fact, that might be my preference.

How much will lannan make in arbitration?  If they non tender him,  no way he comes back after last year

[Tyler Durden]

How much will lannan make in arbitration?  If they non tender him,  no way he comes back after last year

Around 5 mil - pretty much same as last year.