2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread

[Slateman]

Speed is very nice but I feel that it relies to much on the hitters behind the speedster to get the full use out of it. And knowing our history, we leave way too many runners on base.

All the more reason to get more speed

Bourn walks. Steals second because Werth works the count. Werth hits a pop fly, Bourn tags and goes to third. Zimmerman hits one of his pattented hard grounders to the shorstop, Bourn scores. Morse strikes out.

A run scored that if Werth were leading off would have been left on base.

[HalfSmokes]

I'm seeing Mike Trout and his 129 runs and 49 stolen bases out of 54 attempts well ahead of everyone else. I also see Braun, McCutcheon, and Justin Upton in the Top 5. They are all good baserunners and have good speed. Only one who isn't is Miggy and it took him having a career power year to do it. He hits 30 like last year and he's not in the top 5.

so 30 homers is a "slap hitting speedsters"? That's what I wrote because that's what bourn is, Braun had 41 home runs, McCutchen 31, even upton had 17. Bourn had 9, and that was by far his career high. Compare the stolen base leaders (ie proxy for speed and one of the benefits you point to) with the runs leaders, then compare the home run leaders (proxy for power) with the runs leaders. Speed correlates a lot less to scoring runs

[nobleisthyname]

If we're going the hypothetical scenario route:

Werth doubles
Harper hits a first pitch ground ball to the right side; Werth to third
Zimmerman hits a sac fly.

So clearly, power > speed. A run scored that would have been left on base with a typical single from Bourn.

[cmdterps44]

I think we should be arguing a different topic here. It's not about power/speed in the lead off spot. It's about which of the two would you rather have in the lineup: Bourn and his speed in the lead off position or LaRoche and his bat in the clean up spot with Werth at leadoff.

[Mattionals]

Is it just that the Nats haven't made a move and that is why people are so testy lately?

Seriously Slate, I don't want to sound like a jerk but you have been PUSHING your points a bit hard lately.  I like your points and counter arguments to many on the forum.  You play a good Devil's advocate but I'm starting to see lots of similar looking posts every page or so.  Don't want to be mean, just saying.

I for one am not a big fan of Bourn right now just because I think he wants too many years.  Yes he is fast and is one of the top leadoff guys in the game, but I don't see him as a top leadoff guy in even three years.  Suck it up with Werth at leadoff for one more year and call Goodwin up in September if he had a good year.  I'm not convinced that he is always going to be a high K guy.  He probably will be something between his 14% in low A and his 26% in AA.  Maybe 20% with 15+ homer power and good speed.

[cmdterps44]

Mattionals, you were here for the last offseason. It's always like this. Year after year.

[HalfSmokes]

This offseason actually seems better- less apocalyptic less dire less angst ridden

[cmdterps44]

Well that's because the world ended October 12th.

[Slateman]

If we're going the hypothetical scenario route:

Werth doubles
Harper hits a first pitch ground ball to the right side; Werth to third
Zimmerman hits a sac fly.

So clearly, power > speed. A run scored that would have been left on base with a typical single from Bourn.

Bourn steals more bases than Werth hits doubles.

Is it just that the Nats haven't made a move and that is why people are so testy lately?

Seriously Slate, I don't want to sound like a jerk but you have been PUSHING your points a bit hard lately.  I like your points and counter arguments to many on the forum.  You play a good Devil's advocate but I'm starting to see lots of similar looking posts every page or so.  Don't want to be mean, just saying.

I for one am not a big fan of Bourn right now just because I think he wants too many years.  Yes he is fast and is one of the top leadoff guys in the game, but I don't see him as a top leadoff guy in even three years.  Suck it up with Werth at leadoff for one more year and call Goodwin up in September if he had a good year.  I'm not convinced that he is always going to be a high K guy.  He probably will be something between his 14% in low A and his 26% in AA.  Maybe 20% with 15+ homer power and good speed.

Because we've been talking about the same five guys for the last two years. Yet still having the same conversations because people keep believing the same stupid ideas about them.

[imref]

Sorry, but speed kills in this game. Speed scores from third on ground balls, second on sharp singles, scores from first on extra base hits, puts pressure on pitchers, and usually plays great defense.

i think we saw a fair bit of that this season out of our rookie CF.

[Slateman]

i think we saw a fair bit of that this season out of our rookie CF.

Apparently not because people are in here talking about how we don't need speed and it's overrated.

[Mattionals]

Mattionals, you were here for the last offseason. It's always like this. Year after year.

Tis true.

But did anybody NOT like the Fielder thread? 

I guess we can sum things up.  For five years the Nats have been interested in guys like Tex, Fielder, Span, Bourn, Upton(s), and Bourjos.  Are the owners willing to Spend?

That's really it isn't it?

[cmdterps44]

If WNFF didn't have the LANC/LAC division, it wouldn't work.

[Slateman]

Tis true.

But did anybody NOT like the Fielder thread? 

I guess we can sum things up.  For five years the Nats have been interested in guys like Tex, Fielder, Span, Bourn, Upton(s), and Bourjos White Whale Center Fielder. Are the owners willing to Spend?

That's really it isn't it?

Fixed it.

I would say that the owners aren't willing to overspend. I think they've shown that they're willing to spend when the time comes. But we'll see in the next couple of years.

[sportsfan882]

It sure sounded yesterday like the Phillies had found a setup man.

Not so fast.

Sources said today a trade that would have sent right-hander Wilton Lopez to Philadelphia for a pair of Minor League prospects had hit a roadblock and is unlikely to happen. Lopez, 29, had been in Philadelphia on Wednesday for a physical.

A deal had been agreed upon, pending Lopez passing his physical, but it appears both teams are going their separate ways.

Lopez, 29, would have been a nice addition to the Phillies bullpen. He went 6-3 with a 2.17 ERA and 10 saves in 64 games in 2012. He became Houston’s closer following the trade of Brett Myers to the Chicago White Sox and Francisco Cordero‘s ineffectiveness. But he also spent time on the disabled list in each of the previous two seasons with an elbow injury.

The Phillies could pursue another pitcher in a trade, or they could look to the free-agent market. They have liked right-handers Mike Adams and Brandon Lyon in the past.

[Mattionals]

Lopez is probably hurt.  TJ?

[Slateman]

Bring him here. We're awesome at TJS

[nobleisthyname]

Bourn steals more bases than Werth hits doubles.

And how many times is your scenario going to apply for those steals? Remember that Werth is going to get on base at a rate 20-40 points higher than Bourn.

Apparently not because people are in here talking about how we don't need speed and it's overrated.

I'm saying speed isn't needed as much as you are saying we don't need power (i.e., I'm not). All I'm saying is give me the guy with the much better power and on base percentage over the guy who's going to get on base at a slightly better rate than average with speed and zero power.

[cletusvandamme]

Rizzo doesn't get busy until December. Making moves now is pretty much for rank amateurs.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Seems to me that there are at least 4 guys who we could be looking at - Bourn, Pagan, Victorino, and ALR.  I would add in the possibility of a trade for Kubel or maybe Choo, too.  My guess is that Rizzo holds fire until he talks some of the older guys down to 3 years or 2 + an option, and if that is impossible, he tries to swing a deal for a short term fix using some of our surplus (RH 1B/LF/DH types, maybe middle infield).  This will drive Hammonds nuts, but, patience and a poker-face "We can go into next year with Christian Garcia, and Morse / Bernie / Moore" will be all we'll hear until the market shakes out.

[R-Zim#11]

There's a reason I don't post much during the offseason.

The BBWAA Executive of the Year Award gets Mike Rizzo some benefit of the doubt, at least for one off-season.  I think he's earned it.

[Tyler Durden]

If we're talking trade targets, maybe Fowler and Span and Bourjos.

[imref]

well, remember last year - we all thought we were going to get Fielder, then Rizzo held out until LaRoche was all that was left.  I'll also give him the benefit of the doubt.  I don't think he's going to over-pay for a position player.

[Rasta]

I agree with Tyler. 

I think Rizzo is focusing on a trade.  I wouldn't be surprised if Span is the guy in CF this year. 

[HalfSmokes]

I can't see Rizzo parting with the few prospects we have to fill a position that isn't a need