Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP

[welch]

I bet there is ZERO chance he sees the majors in 2015. ZERO.

He won't even be at a 200-inning limit until 2016, so you're talking about calling him up with maybe 300 innings total in the minor leagues, as a HS pitcher coming off TJ surgery?

Jameson Taillon is at 382.
Zach Wheeler is at 391.
Jacob Turner finished with 414.
Jarrod Parker with 366.
Madison Bumgarner with 355.

He's a "maybe" for 2015. He had his TJ surgery about October, 2012. He pitches in A-ball this season, regaining strength. In 2015, probably starts in Harrisburg. Maybe finishes in Syracuse, with a chance, a slight chance, of pitching in September for the Nats.

Seems more likely to make the Nats in 2016...if everything goes well...and how often do young pitchers make smooth progress?

[blue911]

Given his medical history, the innings limits and service clock I wouldn't expect him until June of 2016.

[HalfSmokes]

If he makes it to syracuse in 2015 (I think that's a relatively big if since I think he starts 2015 in potomac and moves to Harrisburg during the season), then I could see him coming up as a reliever in September if the nats are in the hunt, otherwise, I think 2016 is his likely eta

[NJ Ave]

He's a "maybe" for 2015. He had his TJ surgery about October, 2012. He pitches in A-ball this season, regaining strength. In 2015, probably starts in Harrisburg. Maybe finishes in Syracuse, with a chance, a slight chance, of pitching in September for the Nats.

Seems more likely to make the Nats in 2016...if everything goes well...and how often do young pitchers make smooth progress?

As I said, if he makes the majors in 2015 he will have thrown the fewest minor league innings of a HS pitcher in recent history, despite the fact he's the only one to have had TJ surgery, and debut on a team that's fairly conservative in promoting its prospects.

ZERO chance.

[NJ Ave]

Oh yeah, except for Dylan Bundy, who was rushed along and rushed along until he blew out his elbow. So it's real likely the Nats will test Giolito's arm by bringing him up in a different role (RP) and push him into the highest leverage innings he could possibly throw (relief innings in a playoff race).

[HalfSmokes]

and debut on a team that's fairly conservative in promoting its prospects.

not number 1 draft picks- Zimmerman, Strasburg, Storen and Harper all moved through the minors at a very aggressive pace

[NJ Ave]

I guess I could see them calling him up and letting him watch from the bench in September 2015. But no chance they actually throw him into a game where he might try to throw 108 MPH.

[NJ Ave]

not number 1 draft picks- Zimmerman, Strasburg, Storen and Harper all moved through the minors at a very aggressive pace

That's 2 college pitchers, a college IF and an OF. What's your point? And 1 of the 2 blew out his arm half a season into his career. Nice data point.

[HalfSmokes]

It depends on the team's situation. Price did a lot of good for the Rays out of the pen during his cup of coffee, same with Helickson

[NJ Ave]

In any case, it would be a year earlier than Strasburg debuted, and Strasburg was the biggest pitching prospect of all time. I'm just tapping the brakes here.

[NJ Ave]

It depends on the team's situation. Price did a lot of good for the Rays out of the pen during his cup of coffee, same with Helickson

2 years older than Giolito, 3 years older. Hellickson pitched 580 innings in the minors. Giolito will be around 300.

[HalfSmokes]

That's 2 college pitchers, a college IF and an OF. What's your point? And 1 of the 2 blew out his arm half a season into his career. Nice data point.

you're the one saying the team was conservative with promotions, since Rizzo took over, they have actually been very aggressive with first round picks

[blue911]

As I said, if he makes the majors in 2015 he will have thrown the fewest minor league innings of a HS pitcher in recent history, despite the fact he's the only one to have had TJ surgery, and debut on a team that's fairly conservative in promoting its prospects.

ZERO chance.

There are others besides Bundy. Jose Fernandez and Rick Purcell come to mind but none of these guys had TJ.

[NJ Ave]

Here's the list of guys 20 or younger in the past 10 years: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2004&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=14,20&filter=&players=

It happens. To my knowledge NONE of them had arm trouble before being called up. That's the difference.

[NJ Ave]

It's not just the major league promotion. To get there by 2015 he'll have to rush through the minors, probably low-A and high-A this year, and start 2015 at AA. Basically pushing an 19-year old rehabbing from TJ into higher and higher leverage situations, very quickly. It just won't happen. My guess is Potomac by the end of this year and starting in 2015, finishing 2015 in Harrisburg. MAYBE a full season in Harrisburg in 2015 if he just dominates in Potomac this season. Invitation to spring training in 2016 followed by an assignment to AAA to delay his super-2 status, callup in June 2016.

[Terpfan76]

The team has no reason at all to rush Giolito. If he's ready for a September call up in 2015, by all means, call him up, but if he's not, no hurry.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It's not just the major league promotion. To get there by 2015 he'll have to rush through the minors, probably low-A and high-A this year, and start 2015 at AA. Basically pushing an 19-year old rehabbing from TJ into higher and higher leverage situations, very quickly. It just won't happen. My guess is Potomac by the end of this year and starting in 2015, finishing 2015 in Harrisburg. MAYBE a full season in Harrisburg in 2015 if he just dominates in Potomac this season. Invitation to spring training in 2016 followed by an assignment to AAA to delay his super-2 status, callup in June 2016.

This sounds right, with the caveat that both Zimmermann and Fister could be gone by the start of 2016.  Detwiler too.  The Nats would then need to fill 2 or 3 rotation holes from the guys ahead of him.  I agree with you that the Hagertown and maybe Potomac sounds right for this year, and Potomac and Harrisburg sounds right for 2015, but they may accelerate his time to the majors and skip Syracuse in 2016 if the guys ahead of him like Cole, Jordan, Karns, Solis, etc... don't fill the holes.  I could see maybe as early as a late April 2016 call up in that case (miss credit for a full year service but qualify for super two).

[zimm_da_kid]

I bet there is ZERO chance he sees the majors in 2015. ZERO.

He won't even be at a 200-inning limit until 2016, so you're talking about calling him up with maybe 300 innings total in the minor leagues, as a HS pitcher coming off TJ surgery?

Jameson Taillon is at 382.
Zach Wheeler is at 391.
Jacob Turner finished with 414.
Jarrod Parker with 366.
Madison Bumgarner with 355.

Giolito's a better prospect than they were

[HalfSmokes]

This sounds right, with the caveat that both Zimmermann and Fister could be gone by the start of 2016.  Detwiler too.  The Nats would then need to fill 2 or 3 rotation holes from the guys ahead of him.  I agree with you that the Hagertown and maybe Potomac sounds right for this year, and Potomac and Harrisburg sounds right for 2015, but they may accelerate his time to the majors and skip Syracuse in 2016 if the guys ahead of him like Cole, Jordan, Karns, Solis, etc... don't fill the holes.  I could see maybe as early as a late April 2016 call up in that case (miss credit for a full year service but qualify for super two).

A lot rides on where he starts in 2015. If he finishes 2014 in Potomac, is there any reason that he doesn't start 2015 in Harrisburg? Assuming no setbacks, and no stumbles (definitely not a given), I think Harrisburg and Syracuse for 2015 with a september call up (especially if they will need to replace multiple starters in 2016- might as well see him against mlb batters), followed by starting 2016 in AAA (to control service time)

[Natsinpwc]

It depends how he does and if the Nats are willing to give him time in the majors as a relief pitcher.  If he dominates at Hagerstown they will have to move him to Potomac.  And so on and so forth.  I could see him being in Nats Park in late 2015. 

[welch]

I know of one kid who broke into the majors at 19. Pitched a part-season -- 109 innings -- with a 1.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Next season, 256 innings, 1.65 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and HR/9 of 0.0. No kidding, zero homers in 256 innings. None. Nada.

Pitched for the Nats for about 20 years. At age 28 and age 31, again pitched full seasons without giving up a homer.

Conclusion: Giolito might break into the majors in 2015 or 2016 if he is as good as the greatest pitcher of all time...which seems unlikely.

[NJ Ave]

Giolito's a better prospect than they were

Without looking this up, I'm willing to bet this isn't true. They were all higher picks and higher rated after their first year. He might turn out to be a better pitcher, but this is not true at this point. It's only true if you completely disregard reconstructive elbow surgery, which few are.

[Terpfan76]

Without looking this up, I'm willing to bet this isn't true. They were all higher picks and higher rated after their first year. He might turn out to be a better pitcher, but this is not true at this point. It's only true if you completely disregard reconstructive elbow surgery, which few are.

Until the questions about his elbow during his senior year in HS, Giolito was thought to potentially be the #1 overall pick. I think it was said he'd be the first ever HS pitcher to go #1 overall? If that was the case, then he may well be the better prospect.

[sph274]

Until the questions about his elbow during his senior year in HS, Giolito was thought to potentially be the #1 overall pick. I think it was said he'd be the first ever HS pitcher to go #1 overall? If that was the case, then he may well be the better prospect.

yea, but he does have those arm problems and he was only "potentially" the number 1 pick. Taillon actually was the 2 pick in 2011 and was ranked within the top 15 of all MLB prospects the two years after he was drafted. Same with Bumgarner(#10 overall), Turner(drafter 9th, in top 25), and Zach Wheeler(drafted 6th, within top 30). To say Giolito is a better prospect than any of them ever were is wrong. He could have been if he didnt have the arm problems but he did. He has only pitched 38.2 professional innings and was ranked as the 74th best prospect by MLB.com. the kid is no where near the majors and still hasnt proven he will ever get there.

[Terpfan76]

yea, but he does have those arm problems and he was only "potentially" the number 1 pick. Taillon actually was the 2 pick in 2011 and was ranked within the top 15 of all MLB prospects the two years after he was drafted. Same with Bumgarner(#10 overall), Turner(drafter 9th, in top 25), and Zach Wheeler(drafted 6th, within top 30). To say Giolito is a better prospect than any of them ever were is wrong. He could have been if he didnt have the arm problems but he did. He has only pitched 38.2 professional innings and was ranked as the 74th best prospect by MLB.com. the kid is no where near the majors and still hasnt proven he will ever get there.

Dude, pump the brakes a little. With those arm issues in mind, Giolito still was drafted 16th overall. That says a lot about a players stock for a 17 year old pitcher looking at TJ surgery. I don't think its a stretch at all to say he may be a better prospect. Besides, I think we all know that being a high prospect doesn't guarantee success.