Author Topic: Ian Desmond Watch 2012  (Read 3209 times)

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Offline The Chief

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #25: April 24, 2012, 12:11:23 PM »
For instance why is Roger Bernadina on a major league roster OMG?!? :mg:

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #26: April 24, 2012, 12:15:10 PM »
For instance why is Roger Bernadina on a major league roster OMG?!? :mg:

:hang:

Offline LostYudite

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #27: April 24, 2012, 05:28:02 PM »
well aware.  but i was just pointing out his overall numbers.

there shouldn't be anything to nitpick here.  i know haters gonna hate, but c'mon.

Oh, come on, there are always nits to pick.  ;)  Hot start or not, he's sporting a .319 OBP. That's better than last year, but it's still not near high enough to be a consistent lead-off guy.  I like the power, but he's not a power guy - it's nice to see a .440 SLG, but much like Detwiler's 0.56 ERA, I'm not sure it's sustainable.

The D has been good - no complaints from me there.  Overall, I'd be perfectly content so far if he were batting 7th and we had the White Whale playing CF.

The timing of Zuck's article is really weird though - it's almost like Lorb hacked his computer and filed the post on his behalf.  It's not like he's off to some super-amazing start.  He started hot, cooled a bit, and smacked a homer to win last game.  He's been better than I expected, but that's because my expectations were pretty low.  If anybody deserved the "Hey, he's doing much better" love on the first off-day, it should be Werth or LaRoche.  Don't look now, but Werth is posting an 886 OPS.

I agree though that the offense right now has bigger problems than Desmond - most notably the gaping hole in LF.  DeRosa, Bernadina and Nady have been so bad they don't even deserve to be called a pupu platter.

Offline NatsDad14

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #28: April 25, 2012, 11:17:07 AM »
This is why you don't rush to genuflect players early on. Just like that Desmond now has a .303 OBP. Some awesome player right there!

Offline spidernat

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #29: April 25, 2012, 11:53:43 AM »
Yet the next time he gets a hit or two the usual morons will be here saying "where are all those that wanted to get rid of Desmond now!"

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #30: April 25, 2012, 12:03:14 PM »
how odd he has a .303 OBP since his career OBP was .301 going into this year.  Also his BABIP is right around the last 2 years.

What he is doing different is that he is that 2 out of the 3 true outcomes are a tick down (BB, K) while his HR rate is double last year.  Those together lead to a higher avg.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #31: April 25, 2012, 12:04:20 PM »
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0

This is how Desmond ranks compared to other shortstops.  He's not at the top of the list, but he's not at the bottom either.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #32: April 25, 2012, 12:10:07 PM »
This is how Desmond ranks compared to other shortstops.  He's not at the top of the list, but he's not at the bottom either.

Give it time.

his HR rate is double last year.  Those together lead to a higher avg.

6 of his 8 homers last year were in April (3) and September (3).

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #33: April 25, 2012, 12:17:12 PM »
thanks Chief. Was comparing his start to season long rates, which is different.  I hope the power doesn't disappear like last year for 4 months.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #34: April 25, 2012, 12:23:49 PM »
I agree -  we're only a handful of games into the season.  It hasn't been long enough to come to any conclusions either way - especially not based off of just his OBP and judged outside the context of the defensive position he plays.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #35: April 25, 2012, 12:28:01 PM »
It's too early to write off his whole season, but the burden is on him to prove that he's reversing the trend we've seen the last two years.  Skepticism towards his hot start is warranted.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #36: May 17, 2012, 09:14:38 AM »
Welcome The King to Twitter

Quote
@IanDesmond20: Good Morning Everyone! Finally jumping onto this Twitter movement!

https://twitter.com/IanDesmond20

Offline Mathguy

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #37: May 17, 2012, 09:16:44 AM »
So how is your skeptism now Chief ?

It's too early to write off his whole season, but the burden is on him to prove that he's reversing the trend we've seen the last two years.  Skepticism towards his hot start is warranted.


Online Slateman

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #38: May 17, 2012, 09:43:28 AM »
I think he should be hitting second in the lineup. Be nice to get some of these homers to be multi run homers.

He still isn't reversing the trend, he's just getting more hits. He still Ks a lot and still can't work a walk. He's entirely dependant on his BABIP.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #39: May 17, 2012, 09:55:19 AM »
So how is your skeptism now Chief ?



What has Desmond done to warrant change in skepticism?

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #40: May 17, 2012, 09:58:32 AM »
What has Desmond done to warrant change in skepticism?
Leading NL SS in HRs and Doubles, 4th among NL SS in BA, 2nd among NL SS in SLG, 5th among NL SS in OPS.

If Espinosa were performing like this you would be :az: :az:


Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #41: May 17, 2012, 10:01:01 AM »
Leading NL SS in HRs and Doubles, 4th among NL SS in BA, 2nd among NL SS in SLG, 5th among NL SS in OPS.

If Espinosa were performing like this you would be :az: :az:



You ignored the .300 OBP, the drop in walk rate, the rise in strikeouts to walks, the drop in fielding percentage, etc. etc.

He's still the same player he's always been. Just driving the ball a bit more.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #42: May 17, 2012, 10:36:58 AM »
he's having a pretty good year outside of the OBP.  he's being a run producer and scoring runs.  he's made a couple of careless errors, but if he continues this play for the rest of the season ... i'll take that from our SS.

Offline R-Zim#11

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #43: May 17, 2012, 10:39:15 AM »
he's having a pretty good year outside of the OBP.  he's being a run producer and scoring runs.  he's made a couple of careless errors, but if he continues this play for the rest of the season ... i'll take that from our SS.

I actually have layed off Desmond as the player-I-hate-most this year. Now, if he could just take a freakin walk, he'd be an outstanding SS...

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #44: May 17, 2012, 10:39:22 AM »
he's having a pretty good year outside of the OBP.  he's being a run producer and scoring runs.  he's made a couple of careless errors, but if he continues this play for the rest of the season ... i'll take that from our SS.

As will I. He's one of the smallest question marks in the lineup, at the moment.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #45: May 17, 2012, 10:44:31 AM »
it's amazing how when LaRoche and Desmond come to the plate this year, I'm actually expecting something positive to get done (most of the time), compared to last season.

Offline amanuel

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #46: May 17, 2012, 12:19:12 PM »
What I'm trying for figure out is, why are Desmond's stolen base numbers so down compared to other years? think it might have something to do with Davey, because I remember with riggleman this team was more aggressive. Just off the top of my head didn't we lead the league under riggleman going from first to third. I would love to get some numbers on these items.

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #47: May 17, 2012, 12:31:41 PM »
It probably has something to do with Davey, but mostly that he has confidence that his 2-3-4-5 is going to actually make hard contact. Also, if I remember, Desi is not the smartest baserunner in the world.


What I'm trying for figure out is, why are Desmond's stolen base numbers so down compared to other years? think it might have something to do with Davey, because I remember with riggleman this team was more aggressive. Just off the top of my head didn't we lead the league under riggleman going from first to third. I would love to get some numbers on these items.


Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #48: May 17, 2012, 01:13:33 PM »
I'm thinking he's walking a bit less and a lot of his singles are turning into doubles and homers this year.  OBP is staying the same, but his ISO is up a lot (.104 ---> .172).  When it comes to steals, be careful what you wish for.

Edit - last year, 25% of his PAs ended up with him on first via a walk or a single.  This year, 21% so far.  Ok, that does not explain why he attempted a steal about 1/4 times he was on first last year and this year he's attempting a steal about 1/8.  That does show a down turn in rate of attempts.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Ian Desmond Watch 2012
« Reply #49: May 17, 2012, 01:21:03 PM »
Quote
Ian Desmond ‏@IanDesmond20
Good bye football weather, hello baseball weather. My nattitude is on high right now.

:whip: