Ian Desmond Watch 2012

[imref]

So far, so good....

http://www.natsinsider.com/2012/04/desmond-erases-doubts-with-hot-start.html#more

Only 3 walks so far is a red flag though.

[Lintyfresh85]

I really don't know what doubts he's erased... other than those of the journalists and FO that are looking for any reason at all to claim him a success.

[UMDNats]

He was red-hot to start the year but really once he's come back down to earth he's shown nothing different than years past. He'll have his hot streaks, but the approach is the same and if the balls aren't landing he isn't on base.

Defensively, though, he's been solid. No real complaints there so far.

[imref]

I really don't know what doubts he's erased... other than those of the journalists and FO that are looking for any reason at all to claim him a success.

agreed.  He has to put up decent numbers for at least a couple of months, if not a full season, before he erases any doubts.  Still, it's nice to see that he's doing well, and continuing to hit like he did at the end of last year.

[Lintyfresh85]

agreed.  He has to put up decent numbers for at least a couple of months, if not a full season, before he erases any doubts.  Still, it's nice to see that he's doing well, and continuing to hit like he did at the end of last year.

Agreed. The longer he stays hot, the better for the team, obviously.

[Slateman]

Desmond will live and die by his BABIP.  He has no real approach at the plate and likes to hack.

[Lintyfresh85]

Just to show how odd the timing of that article was...

In the most recent 10 game homestand, Desmond hit .244/.256/.366/.622

[JCA-CrystalCity]

In fairness, it seems his power has jumped a bit this year to closer to what his frame says he should support.  He is not benefitting from a fluky BABIP (.317 the past 2 years, .321 this year).  The other thing that seems to have happened is his aggressive approach has led to a cut back in K% so far.  In other words, he seems to have a better sense of what he does well (he's a fast guy without an ability to draw walks, so going deep into counts does not usually pay off).  The only other time he had this low a K rate was during his first call up, which also was his best power month (or one of).

edit - the complete absence of pop outs and the jump in liners looks flukey.

[Evolution33]

I wouldn't mind seeing a chart of where and how pitchers have been pitching Desmond, because let's be honest his offense from the last two seasons is not that of someone a pitcher is going to be careful with.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He's seeing a lot more sliders and maybe cutters per fangraphs and doing a decent job with sliders.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6885&position=SS

This is odd, because he's done better v. sliders the past few years than FB.  why the change in approach to him? He's taking fewer strikes, which probably has to do with his better contact.  As he says, he's just more aggressive.

[JMUalumni]

Interesting, I wonder where fangraphs pulls there pitchf/x data from, because Texas Leaguers (which I have found to be more reliable in identifying pitches) has him as taking 32.7% sliders this season as compared to to 18% last season.  It appears he has also been swinging at less changeups this year so far (58% vs 53.4% albeit SSS), a pitch that he struggled with last year (19.7 WHIFF% last season vs 14.2% this season, also been putting more in play).  My own personal theory is that pitchers have been throwing him less fastballs and as a result haven't been able to set up the changeup to him.  I'm also guessing that the scouting reports on him propose throwing heavy doses of breaking balls out of the zone (mostly outside and away it appears) in attempt to capitalize on his aggressive approach and to get him to take cuts at bad pitches.  He has been having some success hitting sliders last year and this year, and so his success may have a chance to continue if opponents continue to throw a large percentage of the pitch to him.

[hammondsnats]

Just to show how odd the timing of that article was...

In the most recent 10 game homestand, Desmond hit .244

AVERAGE doesn't matter

[hammondsnats]

nobody can complain about his great play to start the year.  hopefully we can expect to see more of this the rest of the year/career.

[Lintyfresh85]

The .256 OBP from your leadoff hitter does matter, though.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Where do you see .256 OBP?  B-R has the nats leadoff hitters at .325 (which still is inadequate) with our #2 hitter at .378 (which is darn fine, but I suppose that goes in another thread ; actually, there is some Lombo lift in that .378).  Desi's OBP is .319, which is about where you'd figure it when his AVG is .294. 

Got to love the SLG pick up and the return of power for Desmond.  While I prefer higher OBP from a leadoff hitter, I like good overall hitters at leadoff and right now, Desi's power makes up for some of that OBP drop. 

[Lintyfresh85]

Last 10 Nats games he's got a .256 OBP.

[hammondsnats]

Last 10 Nats games he's got a .256 OBP.

overall > last 10 games

[The Chief]

overall > last 10 games

You know he's only played 15 games this year, right?

[Minty Fresh]

You know he's only played 15 games this year, right?

#smallsamplesize   

[hammondsnats]

You know he's only played 15 games this year, right?

well aware.  but i was just pointing out his overall numbers.

there shouldn't be anything to nitpick here.  i know haters gonna hate, but c'mon. 

[Tyler Durden]

He's ranked pretty highly among shortstops so far this year.  Already accumulated .4 WAR which is tied for 8th.  Also .333 wOBA which is also 8th among shortstops. 

Only 15 games so far, but if he can maintain this level, I'll be satisfied with him.

edit - link to fangraphs http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=20,d

[The Chief]

He's ranked pretty highly among shortstops so far this year.  Already accumulated .4 WAR which is tied for 8th.  Also .333 wOBA which is also 8th among shortstops. 

Only 15 games so far, but if he can maintain this level, I'll be satisfied with him.

Key words.  If it's okay to point out that he's had a few good games I'm not sure what's wrong with pointing out that he's also had a few bad games.  He had a fantastic start and that's great, but he's cooled way off over the last two series.  I'm all for giving him plenty of time to prove himself one way or the other.

[Minty Fresh]

Key words.  If it's okay to point out that he's had a few good games I'm not sure what's wrong with pointing out that he's also had a few bad games.  He had a fantastic start and that's great, but he's cooled way off over the last two series.  I'm all for giving him plenty of time to prove himself one way or the other.

It's either/or Chief.  Just ask spoprtsnyan882.

[Fan037]

He's come up with some very key hits late in ballgames.  The Nats have bigger offensive problems than Ian Desmond.

[Lintyfresh85]

He's come up with some very key hits late in ballgames.  The Nats have bigger offensive problems than Ian Desmond.

No one said they didn't.