BP's top 100 prospects list

[tomterp]

Top 100 Prospects
The Best of the Best

Baseball Prospectus is proud to present its Top 100 Prospects list for 2008. Compiled by Kevin Goldstein after months of research and analysis, the list represents the best balance of skills analysis and performance analysis in the industry.

For expanded commentary on all 100 players and many more, pick up Baseball Prospectus 2008, available at Amazon.com now and in bookstores nationwide at the end of February.

Ask Kevin about his rankings Thursday afternoon at 1 p.m. ET!

1. Jay Bruce, of, Reds
2. Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox
3. Evan Longoria, 3b, Rays
4. Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees
5. Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Dodgers
6. David Price, lhp, Rays
7. Travis Snider, of, Blue Jays
8. Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals
9. Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds
10. Cameron Maybin, of, Marlins
11. Rick Porcello, rhp, Tigers
12. Matt Wieters, c, Orioles
13. Franklin Morales, lhp, Rockies
14. Andy LaRoche, 3b, Dodgers
15. Wade Davis, rhp, Rays
16. Jacoby Ellsbury, of, Red Sox
17. Jordan Schafer, of, Braves
18. Desmond Jennings, of, Rays
19. Mike Moustakas, ss, Royals
20. Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks
21. Joey Votto, 1b, Reds
22. Daric Barton, 1b, Athletics
23. Chase Headley, 3b, Padres
24. Andrew McCutchen, of, Pirates
25. Reid Brignac, ss, Rays
26. Carlos Gonzalez, of, Athletics
27. Nick Adenhart, rhp, Angels
28. Chris Marrero, of/1b, Nationals
29. Angel Villalona, 3b, Giants
30. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers
31. Matt LaPorta, of, Brewers
32. Chin-Lung Hu, ss, Dodgers
33. Jeff Clement, c, Mariners
34. Ian Kennedy, rhp, Yankees
35. Ross Detwiler, rhp, Nationals
36. Jason Heyward, of, Braves
37. Geovany Soto, c, Cubs
38. Brandon Wood, 3b/ss, Angels
39. Matt Antonelli, 2b, Padres
40. Jacob McGee, lhp, Devil Rays
41. Johnny Cueto, rhp, Reds
42. Manny Parra, lhp, Brewers
43. Steven Pearce, 1b, Pirates
44. Chris Tillman, rhp, Mariners
45. Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs
46. Fautino de los Santos, rhp, Athletics
47. Austin Jackson, of, Yankees
48. Jose Tabata, of, Yankees
49. Eric Hurley, rhp, Rangers
50. Brett Anderson, lhp, Athletics
51. Fernando Martinez, of, Mets
52. Adam Miller, rhp, Indians
53. Justin Masterson, rhp, Red Sox
54. J.R. Towles, c, Astros
55. Carlos Triunfel, ss, Mariners
56. Gio Gonzalez, lhp, Athletics
57. Jed Lowrie, ss, Red Sox
58. Elvis Andrus, ss, Rangers
59. Jordan Walden, rhp, Angels
60. Ryan Kalish, of, Red Sox
61. Matt Latos, rhp, Padres
62. Engel Beltre, of, Rangers
63. Brent Lillibridge, ss, Braves
64. Gerardo Parra, of, Diamondbacks
65. Carlos Gomez, of, Twins
66. Scott Elbert, lhp, Dodgers
67. Alan Horne, rhp, Yankees
68. Carlos Carrasco, rhp, Phillies
69. Chris Perez, rhp, Cardinals
70. Brandon Jones, of, Braves
71. Bryan Anderson, c, Cardinals
72. Luke Hochevar, rhp, Royals
73. Michael Main, rhp, Rangers
74. Chris Davis, 3b, Rangers
75. Chorye Spoone, rhp, Orioles
76. Jeremy Jeffress, rhp, Brewers
77. Taylor Teagarden, c, Rangers
78. Wes Hodges, 3b, Indians
79. Deolis Guerra, rhp, Twins
80. Chris Nelson, ss, Rockies
81. Michael Burgess, of, Nationals
82. Greg Reynolds, rhp, Rockies
83. Gorkys Hernandez, of, Braves
84. Henry Sosa, rhp, Giants
85. Radhames Liz, rhp, Orioles
86. Jair Jurrjens, rhp, Braves
87. Aaron Poreda, lhp, White Sox
88. Chris Volstad, rhp, Marlins
89. Hank Conger, c, Angels
90. Max Scherzer, rhp, Diamondbacks
91. Casey Weathers, rhp, Rockies
92. Dexter Fowler, of, Rockies
93. Wladimir Balentien, of, Mariners
94. Neil Walker, 3b, Pirates
95. Michael Bowden, rhp, Red Sox
96. Joe Savery, lhp, Phillies
97. Ben Revere, of, Twins
98. Trevor Cahill, rhp, Athletics
99. Chris Carter, 1b, Athletics
100. Lars Anderson, 1b, Red Sox

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
 

[Dave B]

Its a little sobering that there are 18 (quick count) position players rated higher the guy we hold in such high regard

[Steve Heezy]

I wouldn't worry too much about the others being listed higher than marrero ... he only has 1 full year of pro experience and he's still only 19. After another year he should move up some more.

[Dave B]

I wouldn't worry too much about the others being listed higher than marrero ... he only has 1 full year of pro experience and he's still only 19. After another year he should move up some more.

I dont know what the criteria is, but I'm assuming this is based on a projected ceiling for each player, not who had the best stats in the minors last year, thus making age irrelevant

[Nat of the Living Dead]

Keith Law is a Nat Hater.  Never listen to a thing he says.  He's never had anything good (or correct) to say when it pertains to the Nats.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

^That's true.  I want to like Keith Law because he's so stathead-y, but he's consistently hard on the Nats to a puzzling extent.

That said, I'm pretty surprised to see Marrero ranked ahead of Matt LaPorta and Jeff Clement.  That's pretty encouraging!

[sportsfan882]

What is the criteria for this list?  I see many players on the list that have already played in the Majors longer than just a short call-up (Ellsbury, Parra, Morales, Chamberlain, etc.). Also, how can they put players so high on the list that haven't even played in a Professional baseball game yet (Wieters, Porcello, Moustakas, Price, etc.)? For all we know they could be complete busts.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

All of the guys you named were September call-ups this past year and qualify for RoY this year, so they also qualify for this list.

I'm guessing that the high-end draft picks who haven't played yet are ranked based on potential - tools, athleticism, etc.

[Nat of the Living Dead]

I was just providing an alternate opinion, with no guarantees

Where did Law say this?  Was it an article, over XM, where?

[PC]

Its a little sobering that there are 18 (quick count) position players rated higher the guy we hold in such high regard

That's still fewer than one per team.

And Keith Law is an ass!

[PC]

Where did Law say this?  Was it an article, over XM, where?

Top 100 prospects of 2008

[Nat of the Living Dead]

Top 100 prospects of 2008

OMG, Keith Law is such a douche.  He acts like Detwiler's "September Call-Up" was damaging to his development and only puts him as a mid-rotation prospect "with a ceiling."

I really wonder why this guy has it out for the Nats.

[Nat of the Living Dead]

I think he is a mid rotation prospect. His Major League readiness made him first round material, plus he can't miss as a mid rotation prospect.

If he wasn't on the 40 man, we wouldn't have to worry about where to put Estrada.

He makes OK points.

I can't take anything the man says as an "ok point."  I have a feeling him and Buster Olney meet in a secret treehouse clubhouse and plot their hatred while reading Bazooka Joe comics and stolen Playboys from their fathers.  Detwiler probably is a mid-rotation guy but when it comes to Law, I never get the impression he means such things pertaining to the Nats as good statements.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

In all fairness, Law did have 4 Nats prospects in his top 100 (Detwiler, Marrero, Zimmermann, Smoker), as opposed to 3.  I think he slighted Burgess, though.

[Evolution33]

I can't take anything the man says as an "ok point."  I have a feeling him and Buster Olney meet in a secret treehouse clubhouse and plot their hatred while reading Bazooka Joe comics and stolen Playboys from their fathers.  Detwiler probably is a mid-rotation guy but when it comes to Law, I never get the impression he means such things pertaining to the Nats as good statements.

I remember when Law said the thing about Marrero in a chat. He said he didn't have the bat speed to get around on most major league pitching. I don't know if he has some sort of super bat speed judging device or if he uses the same one I use. I admit I am not a scout, but I have seen enough baseball to know that if someone that doesn't look like a steriod freak is hitting a ball that hard then there is a lot of bat speed. I saw Marrero hit a triple where the ball never got more the three feet off the ground and it sounded like a shotgun blast when it hit the outfield wall. He hits the ball about as hard as Wily Mo and Wily Mo could eat him as a small snack. Marrero is big for a 19 year old and has a frame that can take a lot of growth. If he lives up to his potential then watch out.

[ronnynat]

I have a feeling that after next season Marrero won't even be in the top 3 in our system. And that will be a good thing. He was the best while we were weak. Now we're getting stronger.

[PANatsFan]

I remember when Law said the thing about Marrero in a chat. He said he didn't have the bat speed to get around on most major league pitching. I don't know if he has some sort of super bat speed judging device or if he uses the same one I use. I admit I am not a scout, but I have seen enough baseball to know that if someone that doesn't look like a steriod freak is hitting a ball that hard then there is a lot of bat speed. I saw Marrero hit a triple where the ball never got more the three feet off the ground and it sounded like a shotgun blast when it hit the outfield wall. He hits the ball about as hard as Wily Mo and Wily Mo could eat him as a small snack. Marrero is big for a 19 year old and has a frame that can take a lot of growth. If he lives up to his potential then watch out.

Sounds like more like a reaction-time thing, where he can't catch up to 90+ MPH fastballs and will swing late and foul off a lot of pitches? I'm reaching here.

[tomterp]

Sounds like more like a reaction-time thing, where he can't catch up to 90+ MPH fastballs and will swing late and foul off a lot of pitches? I'm reaching here.

Right.  Because bat speed = power.  If Marrero has a lot of power, his bat much reach a speed greater than most other players in order to make the ball take off.  Perhaps he has a long swing, where he starts real far back and thus takes a longer than normal time to get the bat up to terminal velocity.  I'm reaching here too.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I have a feeling that after next season Marrero won't even be in the top 3 in our system. And that will be a good thing. He was the best while we were weak. Now we're getting stronger.

I seriously doubt that.  Who would be in our top 3 if Marrero doesn't crack it?

[ronnynat]

I seriously doubt that.  Who would be in our top 3 if Marrero doesn't crack it?

People that step up this season. We have A LOT of prospects/draft picks this year.

[UMDNats]

People that step up this season. We have A LOT of prospects/draft picks this year.

In my opinion, Marrero will be our best outfielder in 5 years. The guy is a freak at 19 years old.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

People that step up this season. We have A LOT of prospects/draft picks this year.

Which ones, specifically?  Smoker and McGeary are too young.  Even if they tear up Vermont/Hagerstown this year, they won't be more highly regarded than Marrero (unless Marrero completely tanks) because they still have to progress much further.  Detwiler can easily surpass Marrero, and Zimmermann could with a strong season in which he sees action at Potomac, but I don't think anyone else, save maybe a precocious, RZ-like college draft pick, can surpass Marrero.

[ronnynat]

Which ones, specifically?  Smoker and McGeary are too young.  Even if they tear up Vermont/Hagerstown this year, they won't be more highly regarded than Marrero (unless Marrero completely tanks) because they still have to progress much further.  Detwiler can easily surpass Marrero, and Zimmermann could with a strong season in which he sees action at Potomac, but I don't think anyone else, save maybe a precocious, RZ-like college draft pick, can surpass Marrero.

A young pitcher can have a lights out season (maybe 10-1 w/ a 1.something ERA) and could easily pass him. Unless, of course, he has an equal or better season, comparatively. Burgess could surpass him as well. Like I said, though, that'd be a GOOD thing for us.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

That really depends the level at which they put up those numbers and whether Marrero falls flat on his face.  If you have two prospects who are equally promising, the one who's higher up in a system gets the better rating simply because they're more of a sure thing to be a solid pro.  If Marrero hits a bump and Smoker/McGeary tear it up, then it is possible.

I agree with you about Burgess, though.  I could see Marrero putting up decent numbers with Burgess making his way to Potomac and going nuts.  If that happens, he could be a top ten prospect in the MLB.

[PANatsFan]

Some prospects I'm excited about:
Zimmermann the pitcher
Martis
Burgess
Smiley Gonzalez
McGeary (though he'll develop SLOW due to his classes)