The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread

[hammondsnats]

[PANatsfan] Kasten is scapegoat, deserves all the heat, not the Lerners [/PANatsfan]

[kirubel94]

if the nats picked today, my pick would be dylan bundy, this guy has been unconscious all year long.

[kirubel94]

Watching tim lincecum, wants me to get trevor bauer.... No way he falls to 23

[RD]

The high school kids have a lot of upside, but its hard to argue for a HS kid with so much talent at the college level. I have no facts to back it up, but Id be willing to bet more HS arms have flamed out than college kids. Pitchers can get hurt at any time, and a HS kid his first couple years is pretty fragile. Gotta build up the arm strength and other pitches, while watching an inning limit, as the kid is still developing physically. There's a lot going on there. The college guys aren't finished products, but their bodies are closer to being done maturing. They've grown as ball players from being 18 and pitching in high school.

Certainly, guys like Kershaw, Taillon, Beckett, etc. Those are elite guys you take. But when you have a slew of arms like this year(mentioned as potential top ten picks: Hultzen, Bauer, Cole, Purke, Barnes, Jungmann, and Bradley) its hard to go for a high school arm. The college kid could help us within two years.  Not saying Bundy won't be under consideration, just saying, I think the team is leaning in the college direction.

[Lintyfresh85]

The high school kids have a lot of upside, but its hard to argue for a HS kid with so much talent at the college level. I have no facts to back it up, but Id be willing to bet more HS arms have flamed out than college kids.

I'm pretty sure that's been proven, a lot.

And not just with pitchers... high school hitters flame out at a higher rate, as well.

[hammondsnats]

what's been up with purke this year?

[RD]

I'm pretty sure that's been proven, a lot.

And not just with pitchers... high school hitters flame out at a higher rate, as well.

Yeah, Im just saying, I don't have the facts at hand. So even though Im confident my statement is true, I don't have the data to back it up, and really don't want to do the research to find it.

[RD]

what's been up with purke this year?

The article linked touches on some stuff, but there is no known reason for it. At this point, everyone can speculate about quite a few things. The velocity is there one inning, gone the next. Personally, that doesn't sound like an injury. And he's out there battling and still getting people out, so I don't think it has anything to do with his focus. IMO, it's a mechanical issue, but there's no proof to back that up, so it's all just speculating.

Honestly though, this is why pitchers selected in the first round(honestly, selected anywhere where you'll get substantial money), should sign. There's too many things that could go wrong. The Matt Harrington situation stands out as the worst case, but there are a lot of others. I played with a kid that was drafted three times and never ended up signing with a big league organization. It can happen at other positions as well, but there's more than can go wrong as a pitcher. Of course, Gerrit Cole stands to benefit from his decision to pass on first round money three years ago, and will triple his money. So it can pay off, but with all that could go wrong, take the money if it's good enough.

[RD]

Just an FYI, a basic interview with Hultzen:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/draft-prospect-qa-danny-hultzen.html#more

Not a whole lot of info, just thought some might be interested.

[houston-nat]

if the nats picked today, my pick would be dylan bundy, this guy has been unconscious all year long.

What?

[PANatsFan]

What?

Zombie Flores need Frieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeend

[Tyler Durden]

Just an FYI, a basic interview with Hultzen:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/draft-prospect-qa-danny-hultzen.html#more

Not a whole lot of info, just thought some might be interested.

That was a decent read.  He looks at Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee and Andy Pettite as guys he tries to emulate.  The K/BB ratio is really reminiscent of Lee.

He also talks about pounding the strike zone and not being afraid of contact - that will probably win a few points with McCatty.

[Tyler Durden]

Interesting scouting report on Sonny Gray

http://baseballbeginnings.com/2011/04/18/sonny-gray-report#more-13170

[strasmasndzimmermas10]

What?

WHAT?

[RD]

Interesting scouting report on Sonny Gray

http://baseballbeginnings.com/2011/04/18/sonny-gray-report#more-13170

I know many don't want to draft a reliever at 6, and neither do I.

But having that as the fallback option and floor, make him an attractive option IMO. We will get some return on the pick at the big league level, even if he doesnt live up to his full potential.

But, that full potential, and power stuff is the main reason to draft him. After Cole, he's got the best power stuff in the draft IMO. He's got as good a chance to be a front line guy as any in the draft. Roy Oswalt is a max delivery little guy and he hasn't had to move to the pen.

So Im still on th Gray bandwagon. That's my pick at 6 if he's available. At this point anway.

[RD]

Here's a top 50 ranking update:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/top-50-draft-prospects.htm

And an article, and video, on a potential selection at 23 or 33, Brandon Nimmo.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2011-04-18-brandon-nimmo-wyoming-baseball_N.htm

[RD]

Quick little update on a couple guys, but the real relevant piece for this thread is at the bottom:

Late in March, Law wrote that Hultzen, the No. 4 prospect in the most recent Future 50, isn't likely to be ranked that high when draft day comes, but there's buzz that even the Seattle Mariners may consider Hultzen at No. 2. It's still more likely that Seattle takes Gerrit Cole or Rendon, whichever Pittsburgh leaves on the board, but the more Rendon fails to wow, the more speculation will grow about potential alternatives for the Mariners, and even the Diamondbacks at No. 3.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=mlb_draft&id=6381555

[Lintyfresh85]

If the Nats draft another RP in the first round, I'll lose it.

[sportsfan882]

If the Mariners don't take Rendon or Cole they are insanely stupid.

Nats should pass on Sonny Gray and Purke. Not sure who to target. Not a Jed Bradley fan either. Hultzen won't be there likely. Too early for Bauer.

[Lintyfresh85]

If the Mariners don't take Rendon or Cole they are insanely stupid.

Nats should pass on Sonny Gray and Purke. Not sure who to target. Not a Jed Bradley fan either. Hultzen won't be there likely. Too early for Bauer.

It's never too early if you think the talent is special.

[sportsfan882]

That is true, I know a lot of people have concerns about him but I think it would be pretty sick to have him in our organization. Depending on who is left on the board I think it is worth the risk. I'd take him over Bradley and Gray. I don't think the Nats would though. I could see them taking someone like Bradley meh.

Bauer's results speak for themselves. I feel his stuff would translate to the Majors just as well. Floor of a #3 SP and potential to be #1-2.

[Lintyfresh85]

That is true, I know a lot of people have concerns about him but I think it would be pretty sick to have him in our organization. Depending on who is left on the board I think it is worth the risk. I'd take him over Bradley and Gray. I don't think the Nats would though. I could see them taking someone like Bradley meh.

Bauer's results speak for themselves. I feel his stuff would translate to the Majors just as well. Floor of a #3 SP and potential to be #1-2.

It only takes one team to take a chance on a unique talent to have it turn into a goldmine for them... see the Giants with Lincecum when all the other teams passed on him because he was small with a weird wind up.

Plus, for all the handwringing about Purke... he's got a below 2 ERA. That's not terrible. I know his K/9 is right around 9... but it's not like he's been terrible this year. With the way everyone was talking, I was expecting him to have an ERA in the 5's.

[sportsfan882]

Yeah, that comparison has been made so often but it is really valid IMO. Bauer is a special talent. Let's hope Rizzo has the balls to take him.
 

[Lintyfresh85]

Yeah, that comparison has been made so often but it is really valid IMO. Bauer is a special talent. Let's hope Rizzo has the balls to take him.
 

Well, probably not in terms of results... there's very few, if any, pitchers that just dominate and pick up two Cy Young's so early in their career like Lincecum did.

[sportsfan882]

I'm not expecting Bauer to be Lincecum but I think their pre-draft situations were similar.

Bauer knows how to pitch and has the stuff to go along with it.