Stats. Giggity!

[houston-nat]

Man should be getting 

I'm waiting for my call-up to the bigs!

[houston-nat]

I just submitted a piece to FanGraphs Community Research, inspired by Bob and FP's conversation tonight. Look for it hopefully in the next 3-4 days.

This will be my 10th FanGraphs Community article.

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-managers-favourite-stat/

I'm famous! (again)

[Jordanz Meatballz]

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-managers-favourite-stat/

I'm famous! (again)

Are you a Houstonite or an Englishman? Enquiring minds would like to know.

[houston-nat]

Are you a Houstonite or an Englishman? Enquiring minds would like to know.

Born/raised Indiana
Lived in Detroit, San Antonio
College in Houston (joined WNFF here)
Grad school in England (joined FanGraphs here)
Now live in Dallas

[Optics]

Just heard this from Zuck on 980:

When someone walks the bases loaded to get to Ian Desmond, he's 6/6 with 14 RBI.

King Ian is nothing if not clutch.

[HalfSmokes]

seeing more pitches has almost no relationship to scoring runs

http://regressing.deadspin.com/being-patient-at-the-plate-doesnt-correlate-with-scorin-1602382487/+kylenw citing

http://www.hardballtimes.com/batter-patience-as-a-team-sport/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

seeing more pitches has almost no relationship to scoring runs

http://regressing.deadspin.com/being-patient-at-the-plate-doesnt-correlate-with-scorin-1602382487/+kylenw citing

http://www.hardballtimes.com/batter-patience-as-a-team-sport/

Interesting, but I think the Hardball Times author missed a step in his analysis that may have explained his result.  He notes there is a moderate correlation between P/PA and Ks and a strong correlation between P/PA and BBs.  I think he should have then done a comparison of K:BB ratios, and done an analysis of teams with high K:BB ratios and high P/PA vs. low K:BB ratios and high P/PA.  I'm going to guess teams that have closer to a 1:1 K:BB and high P/PA score more runs than ones with 3+:1 K:BB and high P/PA. 

It takes a few pitches to strike out.  I remember looking at Lasting Milledge's P/PA and thinking he'd be a good leadoff hitter but then realizing he had a high P/PA because it took 3 pitches, minimum, to K.  I'm going to guess most of the K leaders have >4 P/PA (that is, they are above average in P/PA).  Desi when he's been effective probably has a lower P/PA than when he's been bad because when he is bad he swings and misses.  I'll guess Danny also has a high P/PA during his big strikeout streaks.

Offenses that can drive up P/PA and keep lower K:BB ratios get the benefit of tiring a pitcher out and the benefit of more baserunners  without creating extra outs.  Those are probably the ones that score a lot.  Breaking it down by individuals, maybe you look at wOBA or wRC+. I'm guessing Werth, RZ, and ALR do well on K:BB and wRC+.  Dustin Pedroia, too.

[blue911]

Interesting, but I think the Hardball Times author missed a step in his analysis that may have explained his result.  He notes there is a moderate correlation between P/PA and Ks and a strong correlation between P/PA and BBs.  I think he should have then done a comparison of K:BB ratios, and done an analysis of teams with high K:BB ratios and high P/PA vs. low K:BB ratios and high P/PA.  I'm going to guess teams that have closer to a 1:1 K:BB and high P/PA score more runs than ones with 3+:1 K:BB and high P/PA. 

It takes a few pitches to strike out.  I remember looking at Lasting Milledge's P/PA and thinking he'd be a good leadoff hitter but then realizing he had a high P/PA because it took 3 pitches, minimum, to K.  I'm going to guess most of the K leaders have >4 P/PA (that is, they are above average in P/PA).  Desi when he's been effective probably has a lower P/PA than when he's been bad because when he is bad he swings and misses.  I'll guess Danny also has a high P/PA during his big strikeout streaks.

Offenses that can drive up P/PA and keep lower K:BB ratios get the benefit of tiring a pitcher out and the benefit of more baserunners  without creating extra outs.  Those are probably the ones that score a lot.  Breaking it down by individuals, maybe you look at wOBA or wRC+. I'm guessing Werth, RZ, and ALR do well on K:BB and wRC+.  Dustin Pedroia, too.

You've stated in the past that K's don't drive up the pitch count on the pitchers side. So who would be throwing the extra pitches to the high K batters?

[swirvi]

You've stated in the past that K's don't drive up the pitch count on the pitchers side. So who would be throwing the extra pitches to the high K batters?

Zing!

[JCA-CrystalCity]

You've stated in the past that K's don't drive up the pitch count on the pitchers side. So who would be throwing the extra pitches to the high K batters?

Not quite, Blue.  What I think I've stated is that, for  a pitcher, when you get to a 2d strike, a K does not drive up a pitch count.  Nibbling by a pitcher always drives up a pitch count.  It's almost trivial to say it that way. 

A bit more interesting is the case of a pitcher, like Strasburg,  pitcher capable of getting a lot of Ks  on few pitches (swing and miss stuff, pound the strike zone) switching to a pitch to contact approach.  By that I mean 2012 Stras -using his slider and 2 seamer that produced low whiffs but some weak contact.  Don't equate P/PA for a pitcher like Strasburg to P/inning.  If a pitcher to contact approach pushes him up to 4 -5 hitters per innings while emphasizing swing and miss stuff gets him out of innings between 3 and 4 hitters, he could end up  with more pitches per inning by de-emphasizing strike outs.

For hitters, a swing at everything hacker is going to have a lower p/PA than a high K batter if the hacker's is making contact.  Kind of why I suggest Desi's pitch count is probably inversely correllated with his wOBA.

[sportsfan882]

Rob Dibble ‏@robdibble49  3m 
 OMG, Sabermetrics it's the ultimate in BS speculation. Kinda like, if The Queen had balls Shed be The King. Give it up nerds

[Jordanz Meatballz]

I'm starting to agree with this. Playing with stats is fun, but all that really matters is what happens on the field.

I'll leave it to the nerds to identify good Free Agent pickups/ trade opportunities a la Doug Fister, though.

[Minty Fresh]

What exactly is Rob Dibble doing these days?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

With Fister, you do have to wonder how much he's helped by having Rendon and LaRoche on the corners of the infield rather than Cabrera and Fielder like 2012 and 2013. 

[blue911]

With Fister, you do have to wonder how much he's helped by having Rendon and LaRoche on the corners of the infield rather than Cabrera and Fielder like 2012 and 2013.

Peralta is a Derek Jeter type defender. He makes very few errors but has average to below average range.

[houston-nat]

With Fister, you do have to wonder how much he's helped by having Rendon and LaRoche on the corners of the infield rather than Cabrera and Fielder like 2012 and 2013. 

Actually you don't have to wonder, thanks to stats!

2013 Fister ERA: 3.67
2013 Fister FIP: 3.26
difference: 0.41

2014 Fister ERA: 2.92
2014 Fister FIP: 4.03
difference: -1.11

[HalfSmokes]

Actually you don't have to wonder, thanks to stats!

2013 Fister ERA: 3.67
2013 Fister FIP: 3.26
difference: 0.41

2014 Fister ERA: 2.92
2014 Fister FIP: 4.03
difference: -1.11

because god knows fip is a great stat 

[blue911]

Actually you don't have to wonder, thanks to stats!

2013 Fister ERA: 3.67
2013 Fister FIP: 3.26
difference: 0.41

2014 Fister ERA: 2.92
2014 Fister FIP: 4.03
difference: -1.11

You would want to look at Trackman data as well.

[blue911]

Trackman allows the user to see exit speed and spin, with which you can more accurately judge the chance of a base hit. If you notice when Fister is on his game he gets a lot of easy ground balls where range isn't as big a factor as accuracy. When Fister isn't on he gives up a lot of hard line drives which would suggest he would benefit more from a fast outfield than a rangy infield.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Peralta is a Derek Jeter type defender. He makes very few errors but has average to below average range.

I think you are underselling what Peralta did defensively if you compare him to Jeter.  But then, maybe I'm under the influence of Dave Cameron.  I love Iglesias's defense, but that was maybe the position in their infield that was hurting them the least with the glove last year.  You could say that Peralta is better defensively than Desmond.  No, my knock was focused on the corners, and I'll probably take Espinosa at 2d over Infante (or whoeve they were troting out last year), too.   

The BABIP of lefties against Fister so far this year is close to his BABIP last year.  This year, it is almost .100 less against righties.  Some of that I would not bet on staying, but some of that is Rendon v. Cabrera, I would think. 

Another weird thing about Fister this year is, so far, he's getting more fly balls than ground balls v. lefties, but he has also chopped his HR/9 to lefties.  I think some of the skepticism you see about him going forward is an expectation that those flies will start to carry a bit, while the BABIP will come back to some towards .300 (career .297 or so), and that his strand rate will dip below 80%.  I think some of the suppressed BABIP is real, due to better infield defense, and that he is probably one of those heavy sinker types that can maintain a low HR rate.  He's a really nice fit for the Nats.

[blue911]

I think you are underselling what Peralta did defensively if you compare him to Jeter.  But then, maybe I'm under the influence of Dave Cameron.  I love Iglesias's defense, but that was maybe the position in their infield that was hurting them the least with the glove last year.  You could say that Peralta is better defensively than Desmond.  No, my knock was focused on the corners, and I'll probably take Espinosa at 2d over Infante (or whoeve they were troting out last year), too.   

The BABIP of lefties against Fister so far this year is close to his BABIP last year.  This year, it is almost .100 less against righties.  Some of that I would not bet on staying, but some of that is Rendon v. Cabrera, I would think. 

Another weird thing about Fister this year is, so far, he's getting more fly balls than ground balls v. lefties, but he has also chopped his HR/9 to lefties.  I think some of the skepticism you see about him going forward is an expectation that those flies will start to carry a bit, while the BABIP will come back to some towards .300 (career .297 or so), and that his strand rate will dip below 80%.  I think some of the suppressed BABIP is real, due to better infield defense, and that he is probably one of those heavy sinker types that can maintain a low HR rate.  He's a really nice fit for the Nats.

I'm looking at Peralta's RZR,OOZand Error totals (sorry but UZR incorporates errors into the formula) and what you get is a shortstop with below average OOZ numbers combined with an above average RZR % and  low error total. That is Jeterish.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm looking at Peralta's RZR,OOZand Error totals (sorry but UZR incorporates errors into the formula) and what you get is a shortstop with below average OOZ numbers combined with an above average RZR % and  low error total. That is Jeterish.

Basically, we agree that he does not botch balls he gets to.  It's just Peralta is a heck of a lot more above average than Jeter when it comes to balls in his zone.  Peralta's RZR is 5th among qualified SS this year. Jeter is 25th out of 26.  While both seem to be OK at balls they get to in terms of error rates, Jeter is so immobile he can't get to balls that are within a normal SS's range.  Peralta is either well positioned or has normal range.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d
 

[blue911]

Basically, we agree that he does not botch balls he gets to.  It's just Peralta is a heck of a lot more above average than Jeter when it comes to balls in his zone.  Peralta's RZR is 5th among qualified SS this year. Jeter is 25th out of 26.  While both seem to be OK at balls they get to in terms of error rates, Jeter is so immobile he can't get to balls that are within a normal SS's range.  Peralta is either well positioned or has normal range.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d

I'm describing Jeter's career not the stumbling '73 Willie Mays we see now.
 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I loved the line I heard about Jeter the other day.  Describing middle infield moves they could do for the future, someone said, "of course, Jeter has to play out the year, and sometime in the future, Yankees fans will get used to not hearing, 'groundball past a diving Jeter.'"

[houston-nat]

Somewhat related to stats, but mostly not, feel free to help support my grassroots rebellion attempt to replace Carson Cistulli as managing editor of NotGraphs.