First off, Det is not a one pitch pitcher. He throws tons of fastballs, but he controls his fastball and sinker all over the zone. He also has a nice changeup and the last few outings, his curveball showed promise of being a good pitch. All ground ball pitchers have high FIP numbers as well. It is inherent because they don't strike out a ton of guys, but put the ball in play and let the defense do the work. Yes, there is no way to say that a good GB pitcher can sustain a very low BABIP, mostly because it does show good luck on the pitchers part that those ground balls are going right at infielders and results in outs. This could change to becoming base hits through gaps. Ross though as he emerges as a GB pitcher can learn how to place his sinkers (he is already starting to do this) in certain spots in the zone to direct a pitch towards a defender, which is how the defensive shift can work so well. Not saying he is a #1 here, nor am I debating that ERA is a flukey stat, but you are also putting a bit too much faith into the advanced SABR stats to identify the worth of a pitcher. Guys like Lannan and Det will be SABR nightmares, Lannan even more so. What Ross has is that pure scouts love that he is a lefty who can throw a 96 mph sinker. This is something you just can't teach, and Det is harnessing the sinker to his advantage by learning to make it a high precision control pitch. If he can do that, he becomes an elite GB pitcher in the game.
I wasn't trying to say that the Nats should give up a 9 year contract to a guy like the Tigers did with Prince, but they did spend because they want to win. If you can lure a guy like Grienke to take a four or five year deal with more AAV, then you should do it. I also disagree that he will get 7/150 or even 6/120. Grienke has a CY, but he also has swings from year to year that don't put him in a class with guys like Hamels or Lincecum (this year non-withstanding). My guess is that his new agent will target this type of deal, but I don't see any team willing to fork over that kind of money for him. 5/100 or 4/85 would be more than enough to get it done I think, but I'm not a GM or an agent. I think you target him anyway and try and make it worth his while to come here as he would be a very nice piece to this rotation, and arguably would be the fourth best pitcher on the team.
As for JZimm, I know you would never intend to put JZimm in the pen. I was trying to stretch out an example of why not to put Det back in the pen. His use as a starter has far greater value than as a one or two inning guy in the pen as he isn't a high leverage reliever like a set-up guy or closer. I know that you would want to keep JZimm here for a long time, but as others have said, after the Gio deal and after calling up Harper, Lombo, and Moore, the farm system is a little light. In order to build a true "dynasty" that I think many want, you need to sometimes let a really good guy go in order to refill parts of the system. Yes, this team has the ability to contend for years, but looking at the facts, you will need lots of free cash to sign guys like Strasburg and/or Harper long term. Those will be potential 30 Mil a season contracts, add in guys like Zimm and Werth for the last years of their respective contracts, try to hold onto guys like Desmond and now you end up with a payroll that escalates quickly. JZimm at his current going rate is going to be looking like an 18-20 mil a year guy when you start adjusting for inflation as well. As much of a blow as it would be, he could be traded for prospects to restock the system and by 2014 or so, you may have the ability to bring up Meyer as a starter. Purke and Solis if they are healthy and develop could be up there as well (moreso with Solis).
Just saying there are lots of ways to look at this in the future, and as much as I think we all want to sign up all the young guys, it may make more sense to let one of these guys go in order to be productive for many many years.
It's HIGHLY unlikely that a GB pitcher sustains a low BABIP. Detwiler has the lowest amongst any starter in baseball with a 50% or more ground ball percentage. It's simply too hard. His fastball and his sinker are basically the same pitch. He has minimal control over his curveball and he rarely throws a change up. Opposing hitters will figure it out and his numbers will increase. Unless he gets a lot better at controling his curve and change, this will be the high water mark for Detwiler's career. He doesn't sit at 96 with his fastball. That's it's peak. He averages around 92 or 93. And his numbers are pretty easy to duplicate.
Grienke has one "bad" year in the last five. And that bad year was actually pretty decent. The other years he was great, including winning a Cy Young. Since 2008, he's been one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball. Only Verlander doesn't have 7/150 or greater type deal. And his contract was signed in 2010, the year before he become a future HoFer. Grienke should get a monster deal because he's that good. He's at the same level as CC, Cliff Lee, and Felix Hernandez. He turns 29 this year and he is in his prime. He'll easily perform up to what he's accomplished in his career thus far. The Hamels extension would be the bare minimum.
