If 6+ seasons of data collection isn't enough, then why bother at all? You've naged and moaned about Roger Bernadina since before the All-Star break and he didn't have any more PA's. If 300+ PA aren't enough to spot a trend, then maybe the data isn't being collected or analyzed properly. But to say 6 years isn't enough time is ridiculous.
338 PAs would be significant in a season. Spread over 6 years, it probably is a bit less.
Not to put too much credence into small sample sizes, but here are his Fenway stats the past 3 healthy years. Before I even post them, I plan on doing a Marcel-like weighting, 5-4-3 weighting also.
2010 - 42 PAs, 37 ABs, 12 H, 4 2Bs, .324 / .350 / .432, 2 SH, 1 SF.400 BAbIP, 86 tOPS+**
2009 - 40 PAs, 38 ABs, 13 H, 4 2Bs, 1 3b, .342 / .350 / .500, 1 SF, .394 BABIP, 107 tOPS+
2007* - 40 PAs, 39 ABs, 10 H, 2 2B, .256 / .275 / .308, .357 BABIP, 44 tOPS+
5-4-3 = 41 PAs, 38 ABs, 12 H, 4 2B, .316 / .331 / .395
*I skipped 2008, when he was hurt and his overall numbers were down everywhere.
** tOPS+ is his ops relative to his total ops.
A .726 weighted OPS is of concern. I feel better about the .850 and the .782 the past two years. That lines up pretty well with the power aging curve. Add in the bump guys normally get at home, maybe the change in park dimension, I feel comfortable predicting .780 OPS. Add in that a lot of those singles turn into extra bases through steals, something OPS does not account for, and I think he'll be an offensive asset in Fenway. Because that line up gets a bit of power out of 2d and when Cameron and Lowrie play (and proabbly out of the C platoon), I'm a little less concerned about the lack of power out of LF. If he starts to walk a bit more, then he'll really be a plus.
edit at 2:20 PM - Took a quick scan of his splits on Fangraphs re: pull/ straight away / oppo. He hits between 25 - 30% of the time the opposite way. While he is not a fly ball guy, he may see a lot of balls off the wall. The other thing hitting at Fenway does is make a lefty wait longer on pitches, which eventually could help his average. I don't buy what Boz is selling.
