Would you disagree with that assessment? I think it makes a lot of sense to weight a large sample past performance heavily above like 11 games.
I don't disagree with the Nats at 47% so much as the Phillies at 71%. I think even only 11 games in, 71% is overly generous to the Phillies considering their season so far, their chances, their roster, etc. You think Philly is a near playoff lock playing under .500 ball so far? I just think its being overly generous while at the same time shorting a team at 9-3 atop the division and #2 in the entire league at this point, accepting we are only 11-12 games in.
