the mega Evil Empire (NYY) thread

[NJ Ave]

The Blue Jays already did this (2006) and failed.  I'm not buying into them at all.  Too much has to go exactly right for them to be really good.  JJ has to stay healthy, Romero has to bounce back, Dickey has to adjust to the AL, Melky has to perform without the juice, Lawrie has to take big steps forward, the bullpen can't suck . . .

I think the AL should probably worrying about adjusting to Dickey.

Personally, I'm tired of the "2013 Jays = 2012 Marlins" narrative. The Jays have improved themselves a hell of a lot more than the Marlins ever did - I never understood why everyone went crazy over a team signing Reyes (very good player), Buerhle (good #4 starter?) and Heath Bell (who gives a crap?).

And yes, the Blue Jays could finish under .500, even if they're projected to win 90 games there's probably a 15% chance of finishing below .500.

The main point is this kind of move makes sense this year. The Yankees consciously decided to hold back on spending, the Red Sox are down, there's a second wild card to be had...it's the right move for the Jays.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The Granderson and Teixeira injuries should hurt their start.  It rips out their power.  Getting Gardner back will help, and I think Ichiro is a nice fit for them even if he is past his prime.   Right now, I like them at about 3 positions - 2d, RF, CF.  3d base might be a hole and catching looks surprisingly weak given the expectations 2 years ago.  If they can get Granderson, Tex, and Jeter back in a month, that line up should be good.

[Skinz72]

Jeter is a has-been?  .316   .362   .429 last season.  I know he's coming off an injury, but I wouldn't write him off just yet.   But yeah, they do appear poised for quite the fall this year.  I'm really really surprised they didn't bust the bank to sign Hamilton.

You're right.  Perhaps its a little too early to call him a "has been", and when healthy he can still be dangerous.  He's a born fighter (played 159 games in 2012) and statistically actually had a better yeat in 2012 than 2011, so he's clearly not done yet.  This year, however, is lining up to be the battle of his baseball life.  Because he is just shy of 40, because of all the years of postseason play, because of the broken ankle...he will have to work as hard as he possibly can every day to keep the same form.  When he was 26, for example, his natural energy levels were through the roof, and recovery time was probably next to nothing.  He didn't have to work hard at being great - he just had "it".  Now however, his entire life, everyday from from sun up to sun down will be dedictaed to preserving his body in some way - yoga, rehab, muscle building, endurance training, proper nutrition... stuff he probably didn't need to do 15 years ago.  The hill he has to climb everyday only gets steeper and steeper, and with less and less energy to do it with.

The old saying goes "its not the years, its the mileage"... well I can't think of any player in the league who has more mileage than Mr. Jeter.  He's done an amazing job to keep it going this long, but all natural signs point to injury plus age, plus mileage, as being just too much for even Jeter to keep it up too much longer.  So you are right, he is not a "has been".  But he will be soon, and IMO it will be as soon as this year.

[imref]

The Granderson and Teixeira injuries should hurt their start.  It rips out their power.  Getting Gardner back will help, and I think Ichiro is a nice fit for them even if he is past his prime.   Right now, I like them at about 3 positions - 2d, RF, CF.  3d base might be a hole and catching looks surprisingly weak given the expectations 2 years ago.  If they can get Granderson, Tex, and Jeter back in a month, that line up should be good.

they still have a decent starting rotation if healthy, especially if Nova bounces back.  He's having a strong spring so far.

[LightningMcQueen]

Just my 2 cents, but if you're not buying the 2013 Blue Jays, that's fine, this is just an opinion but here are a few things to think about. As mentioned, the Yankees are not the same threat they use to be, and Boston is going to take a year to get themselves back, but I think they'll be very competitive this season.

Without a doubt, Jose Bautista is the most dangerous hitter in the AL after Mike Trout and Cabrera. And a pretty darn good fielder himself. before his injury in 2012, he was tops in 2011 as a WAR offensive player, and 2nd in 2010, and with Reyes and Cabrera hitting before him, on turf I add? He could easily have 120 RBI's. Cabrera will have an easy time adjusting to the game off the juice. He hit .305 in KC with no protection in that line up, and even though I have no doubt somehow the steriods went into his batting average, you have to be good to hit .346 - no matter what.

As I mentioned earlier, Jose Reyes on turf is going to run around the bases daily in that ballpark. The ball flat out flies in Toronto, and I have no doubt Reyes has a chance to reclaim his batting title from 2011.

There is power everywhere in the lineup.
Bautista, Encarnacion, Rasmus, Lawrie, Lind, Arencibia - all of those guys should hit at least 20 HR's, and Bautista and Encarnacion could hit 40 EACH! Melky might even get to 20 too.

RA Dickey is no fluke. Say what you want about a 38 year old knuckler, and adjusting to AL teams, but he is a different type. His knuckler is not a 68, 69 MPH pitch, it's charted around 84-85, and its gotten better every year, and he has proven himself against teams that he's faced multiple times. Brandon Morrow is a fantastic power pitcher, who I think has had the 2nd best strikeout ratio in baseball (correct me if i'm wrong) Josh Johnson is a former ace that should not be ignored, and Romero was a 15 win, 2.92 ERA pitcher in the AL East in 2011.  Mark Buehrle is a nice piece to have on a staff as well. Casey Janssen is a solid closer, and Sergio Santos is coming back after pitching in only 5 games in 2012 after a very successful season with the White Sox in 2011.

They got speed up the wazoo on that roster with Reyes, Bonifacio, and Rajai Davis. and veteran bench help in Maicer Izturis and the calming influence of Derosa to handle Brett Lawrie, which sounds like the 2 are getting along famously.

I think without a doubt the Toronto Blue Jays are as good as they look on paper.

[tomterp]

BP has the Yankees winning the AL east with a 92-70 record.   

[HalfSmokes]

they still have a decent starting rotation if healthy, especially if Nova bounces back.  He's having a strong spring so far.

after sabathia, their rotation is pretty much crap

[Skinz72]

BP has the Yankees winning the AL east with a 92-70 record.   

Not sure I put a lot of weight into BP's methodology.  It's overly scientfic, and they take team history into account, and not just the previous year but a number of years back - which is completely the wrong way to predict, especially especially with the Nats (which is why BP's predicted record for the 2013 Nats is 87-75 because they were below average in 2009, 2010, 2011 and that still hurts the Nats predicted record for 2013, which is ludicrous IMO).  Last year 2012  BP got exactly two teams records correct (Philly 81-81 and Arizona 81-81). 

So looking at the Yanks record in 2012 (95-67) it goes heavily into the algorhythms for predicting 2013, as well as all the other previous years.  It's no surprise that the Yanks have a 92 win prediction because its mostly based on prior years.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I think the AL should probably worrying about adjusting to Dickey.

Personally, I'm tired of the "2013 Jays = 2012 Marlins" narrative. The Jays have improved themselves a hell of a lot more than the Marlins ever did - I never understood why everyone went crazy over a team signing Reyes (very good player), Buerhle (good #4 starter?) and Heath Bell (who gives a crap?).

And yes, the Blue Jays could finish under .500, even if they're projected to win 90 games there's probably a 15% chance of finishing below .500.

The main point is this kind of move makes sense this year. The Yankees consciously decided to hold back on spending, the Red Sox are down, there's a second wild card to be had...it's the right move for the Jays.

We'll have to agree to disagree and just see who's right in September/October.

[tomterp]

Not sure I put a lot of weight into BP's methodology.  It's overly scientfic, and they take team history into account, and not just the previous year but a number of years back - which is completely the wrong way to predict, especially especially with the Nats (which is why BP's predicted record for the 2013 Nats is 87-75 because they were below average in 2009, 2010, 2011 and that still hurts the Nats predicted record for 2013, which is ludicrous IMO).  Last year 2012  BP got exactly two teams records correct (Philly 81-81 and Arizona 81-81). 

So looking at the Yanks record in 2012 (95-67) it goes heavily into the algorhythms for predicting 2013, as well as all the other previous years.  It's no surprise that the Yanks have a 92 win prediction because its mostly based on prior years.

What they do is project the performances of the roster for the season, using their PECOTA system, then play the season out a million times using a Monte Carlo simulation.  I'm not sure any system can be "overly" scientific, after all it's a predictive model and is typically at or near the top of the heap every season in accuracy.  Fortunately they have underpredicted the Nats for a few years now.   

They don't use the record of the 2012 team, rather they adjust for what the record "should" have been if the roster in place met expectations.  Maybe they were lucky or unlucky, there's quite a bit of variability in outcomes in baseball.

[welch]

Here in Yankee-land, consensus is:

- Yankees spring training is subtitled "Old Timer's Days".

- Yankees have enough left to win the division again. Tough old guys who will find a way to win. Doesn't matter that Jeter is 39 and ought to retire with Petite and Rivera. Gardner is back; Granderson will hit; Cano is great; Tex will recover; Youk is adequate at 3B; starting pitchers have been Sabathia and Petite and three other guys for a long time...no big deal.

- Yankees will try to keep total salaries under $189 million. Decline probably starts next season, but they won't collapse.

(Note: "Yankee-land" is the entire metro NYC area except for Queens and Brooklyn, where people are still waiting for a major league team.)

[CALSGR8]

Yankees pursue retired players Chipped Jones and Derrick k Lee

 http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/11/yankees-confirm-pursuit-of-lee-and-reach-out-to-chipper-jones/

[Tyler Durden]

I want to hear more about the Oriole Way - just assemble a bunch of has-beens, cast-offs, and never-were's and see what sticks (the rotation seems to be headed by a guy.  The number two pitcher is another guy and the rotation is filled out by...a bunch of guys.)  Also - rely on the best record of all time in one run games.

[NJ Ave]

We'll have to agree to disagree and just see who's right in September/October.

I don't believe in this. If I'm right, I feel great. If I'm wrong, I'm just working on some stuff.

[GNatsNoMore]

 It's legally official, there's only one in baseball.  Gotta love that Darth Vader/NYY look.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/judge-rules-yankees-baseball-only-evil-empire-223119832--mlb.html

[JCA-CrystalCity]

With the repeat posts of NYY  material and 4 threads in the first 15 of the Scoreboard, it is time to consolidate and have one mega NYY thread.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I don't believe in this. If I'm right, I feel great. If I'm wrong, I'm just working on some stuff.

I call that "being too much of a wussy to admit you're wrong."

[CALSGR8]

I want to hear more about the Oriole Way - just assemble a bunch of has-beens, cast-offs, and never-were's and see what sticks (the rotation seems to be headed by a guy.  The number two pitcher is another guy and the rotation is filled out by...a bunch of guys.)  Also - rely on the best record of all time in one run games.

That's NOT THE "ORIOLE WAY"  that's Bucks and the GMs way.  The TRUE Oriole way is to stock your farm with good players and emphasize the same fundamentals at all levels!  It was invented by Paul Richards.  Our Manager was brought up in it as were HOFers Jim Palmer,Brooks Robinson Eddie Murray Frank Robinson and Cal Ripken Jr.

[spidernat]

Frank Robinson  lol

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Frank Robinson  lol

I guess they taught the "Oriole Way" in the Cincinnati Reds organization

[spidernat]

That or he was "brought up" in it while managing the birds in the late 80's early 90's. Calling that the oriole way is stupid anyway. It's just something birds fans like to say to make themselves believe they have something special or different. That philosophy has been around long before the Browns moved to baltimore (I just realized that two teams named the browns have relocated to baltimore  ).

[CALSGR8]

I guess they taught the "Oriole Way" in the Cincinnati Reds organization

http://sabr.org/latest/1970-baltimore-orioles-oriole-way

[KnorrForYourMoney]

http://sabr.org/latest/1970-baltimore-orioles-oriole-way

1. Frobbie came up with the Reds
2. If the Oriole Way was pitching/defense/3-run HR, it certainly didn't rub off on him, since he seemed to be the anti-Weaver as a manager (i.e. let's attempt 15 steals with Ryan Zimmerman)

[imref]

tex may need season-ending surgery:

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/9062220/mark-teixeira-new-york-yankees-says-wrist-injury-do-tendon

[welch]

Jeter out until All-Star game. NY Times, 4/18/13: "Brian Cashman, the Yankees’ general manager, announced Thursday that shortstop Derek Jeter is likely to be out until after the All-Star Game after a CT scan revealed a small fracture in his surgically-repaired left ankle."